The Patriots welcome the Rams on Sunday, in the midst of a 15-year celebration of Super Bowl 36 with plenty of former players returning to Foxboro. Oh how times have changed since 2001, when the upstart Patriots took on what some thought was a burgeoning dynasty in St. Louis. Instead it was the start of the New England dynasty and now the Rams are in Los Angeles, mired in mediocrity under Jeff Fisher, despite having some of the most talented players in the NFL.
These games are hard to get up for, especially with the Patriots looking at the top two ranked defenses in DVOA coming up the next two weeks. Luckily with Aaron Donald, the best defender in the NFL right now, along with Todd Gurley, the Rams’ talent second-year running back who’s mired in an ineffective second season but still entirely capable of running roughshod, Bill Belichick should have enough ammo to keep the Pats focused on getting a win.
The Patriots are neck and neck with the Raiders battling for homefield advantage and the next three weeks will determine how things end up. The last thing the Pats can afford is a brainfart against a team coached by someone who doesn’t even know who their running backs are.
How the Pats can lock up win number ten on the season in the gameplan…
Offensive Gameplan
The Rams gave up 555 yards to the Saints last week, so despite the Patriots being banged up a bit, they should be licking their chops. However Aaron Donald (six sacks) is just on another level and Robert Quinn (four sacks) isn’t too far behind. The Rams certainly have the talent to get after Tom Brady, but after a long season that included a team relocation, and travel back and forth across the country multiple times as well as to London, you wonder how long the Rams are going to put up a fight if the Pats jump out to an early lead.
Trumaine Johnson, playing on the franchise tag, and Lamarcus Joyner are talented cornerbacks, while Mark Barron, a former safety now playing linebacker, and Alec Ogletree, who took over at middle linebacker this year, lead the team in tackles.
But really all that matters is preventing Donald, Quinn and Michael Brockers from getting to Brady. Perhaps the Rams roll over like struggling teams often do in Foxboro in December, but dealing with their talented defensive front will be excellent prep for the playoffs. There simply isn’t a more explosive defensive tackle in the league than Donald and he should really challenge the Pats young interior of Thuney-Andrews-Mason.
For the Patriots weaponry, their diversity is once again their biggest strength, even without Rob Gronkowski (sad trombone). There are still so many tools in the toolbox now — from Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan outside, to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola inside, to the “pony” package with James White and Dion Lewis, to the heavy package with James Develin and LeGarrette Blount, there’s no kind of offense the Patriots cannot morph into. Losing Gronk hurts, but they have the pieces to overcome, at least against the Rams.
As Mike Lombardi once said, at the start of the game it’s a race for Belichick to figure out how the opponent wants to play the game. The Patriots throw all their packages on the field and take note of how the defense responds both from personnel and schematic standpoints. Whatever they have success with or wherever they feel they’re getting the best matchups is where they will continue to attack.
When you watch the game unfold with this in mind, and with patience knowing it’s a feeling out period, it’s more fun from a tactical point of view. They’ll have to contain Donald, but otherwise it’s about finding what the Rams can’t stop and then hammering them with it over and over and over.
Defensive Gameplan
Look guys, if Jared Goff comes in and shreds the Patriots defense en route to being the first rookie to ever beat Belichick in Foxboro we’ve got real problems. That is really unlikely considering how basic and terrible the Rams offense is. In a lot of ways it’s a good test for the Patriots defense, because they have been getting incrementally better each week. It hasn’t been “holy shit, we are really good” better. But it’s solid and effective and that’s pretty much what we’ve come to expect with this defense.
I liked the changes last week, as it seems they’re settling into a personnel rotation they like with McClellin being more of a run/early down guy with the heavy Branch-Brown front and Van Noy being the passing down guy with a rotation of pass rushers Long and Sheard. I’m still waiting for McClellin to make an impressive play, but it seemed like everyone was comfortable with their roles in that set up.
Against Fitz and the Jets the plan was clear, rush three, drop eight, usually into zone defense. I’m not sure the plan will be that much different this week. That’s the BB way against stinky and/or inexperienced QBs. Make them execute over and over and wait for mistakes. But of course the big problem is that this defense doesn’t capitalize on mistakes like they have in the past. They’re at a 15-year low in turnovers-per-drive. So if that continues, and Goff gets comfortable… ruh roh.
As for Gurley, he has just 641 yards and four touchdowns after rushing for 1106 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. The Patriots are putting together one of their best run defense seasons of Belichick’s tenure, ranking 4th in DVOA, the best since BB took over. There shouldn’t be an issue shutting down Gurley, but it only takes a couple big runs to change the course of the game. Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown must continue to control the line of scrimmage like they did so effectively against the Jets.
Of course, it would be nice to see another dominant performance like we got against the Texans back in September and there’s really no reason to expect anything less. It’s December now. This is when the good teams rise to the top and if the defense struggles against this offense it will be impossible to defend them.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Block Aaron Donald — Easier said than done right? But really, this is the game. The Rams have plenty of talent but none is more disruptive than Donald and it’s going to be tough imagining what that kind of player would do for the Patriots defense. This will be excellent experience for the offensive line. There’s no quicker way to derail Brady that pressure up the middle. We’ve seen it so many times. This will get the OL ready to handle anyone else they face.
2. Give Marty a Break — The Pats just don’t have the depth to sit Martellus Bennett, but they should try to make this game as easy as possible on him. That means using Cam Fleming as the primary blocking tight end. Play him there all game. What’s clear with Gronk out is that the Patriots cannot afford to lose Bennett now. They should take every stride possible to get and keep him healthy.
3. More Turnovers! — If the Patriots defense doesn’t get any turnovers in this one it’s likely going to drive all of us (me especially) insane. Who knows, maybe this is the week the Patriots pass rush wakes up and the Rams won’t be able to get a first down. I kinda doubt that. They started forcing turnovers against the Jets and must continue that trend moving forward.
4. Remind Everyone Why 2016’s Gronkless Offense is Different — So much panic after the news about Gronk in Patriots nation. I get it. He’s awesome and an unstoppable force, but this is still an extremely deep and versatile offense, even without their best weapon. There won’t be much credit handed out for hanging 50 on the Rams defense, but it would alleviate a lot of our worries.
5. Win (with no injuries) — Hopefully we’ve hit our quota for major injuries, at least for this week. This is the last blah game of the season. Then it’s two against tough AFC rivals before wrapping things up with two in the division. Hopefully at least the last one in Miami is meaningless, which it should be if the Pats take care of business in the next three. Let’s just get through this one with a W and strap ourselves in for two big ones.
Prediction: Patriots 49, Rams 7
