Patriots Gameplan: Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Patriots return home for a brief road hiatus, taking on the 6-4-1 Vikings and unfamiliar opponent with plenty of quality pieces to challenge the thus-far inconsistent Pats. This next three-game set will essentially determine the Patriots road in the playoffs. A win at home this weekend, followed by road wins in Miami and Pittsburgh should solidify their position with a vital playoff bye. That would leave the only question as to whether they can make up one game on KC and get the top overall seed.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This Vikings team will give the Pats everything they can handle. The stellar receiving duo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen leads the way. Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook are a nice one-two combo at running back, while Kirk Cousins won’t be afraid to come in and throw it around Gillette Stadium. But the biggest problem for the Pats though could come in the form of tight end Kyle Rudolph.

The veteran Patriot secondary doesn’t usually lay stink bombs at home, but if they do, it will likely be apparent by Rudolph being their biggest and most consistent problem.

Defensively the Vikings also have the pieces to take the Patriots offense head on. They’re 6th overall in DVOA, including 4th against the run and 8th against the pass.  They’re 10th in yards, 3rd in points. Basically, this is a top-10 defense and while the Patriots always have an advantage at home, no one should be expecting a walk in the park on either side of the ball.

Let’s dive into the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

Harrison Smith is an excellent safety and should be very much involved in attacking the Patriots’ tight end/running back passing game. However, a deep dive into the coverage by receiver reveals a Vikings defense that ranks 27th covering tight ends and 29th covering running backs. On the flip side their 1st against #1 WRs, 25th vs #2 WRs and 10th vs other receivers.

Of course, you can’t overanalyze those rankings, especially when the Pats move their receivers around so much. Still, it points to Edelman, Gronk, and White as being the key pieces to get things moving. In the past, against other stout Viking defenses, the Pats have opened in more of a spread offense and there’s a good case to make for not going out and running Sony Michel head on into the Viking front that has given up over 100 yards just four times this season.

But what gives me pause is that the spread, White-led passing attack often sputters out of the gate. The ideal Patriots offense in 2018 leans on Michel early, and with Burkhead likely back, it could mean the Pats just go for it with the run game. It’s one of the most fascinating potential gameplans of the season and it would be even more interesting if it was on the road. But at home the Pats might feel a little more comfortable rolling with the pass early to open up the running game later.

The recipe for failure is clear though. No significant yardage on first and second down, third and longs, punts. That’s the Patriots spread offense at its worse and early on it can put the team into a points hole which takes them even more out of their comfort zone. But with Josh Gordon likely to get a heavy dose of Xavier Rhodes and Chris Hogan continuing to be a spot contributor, it will be Edelman, Gronk, and White or bust in that scenario.

So let’s go against the grain a bit and force them to deal with Michel and Burkhead and Develin. If the 2018 Patriots can lean on that trio in a game they’ll be darn near impossible to stop.

Defensive Gameplan

Yes, it will be hard to contain our admiration of Diggs and Thielen, two great receivers playing lights out. But this is as much of a traditional offense as the Pats have seen and they’re always better against those kinds of offenses, especially at home. Let’s just assume the secondary plays their usual solid home game and not one of their disjointed road ones. Against this offense, an inconsistent secondary performance could mean a loss.

You’ve got Gilmore and he can play on either and play them well. But is Jason McCourty ready for this kind of challenge? He played almost every snap last week, signifying his rise to a primetime starter. Chung on Kyle Rudolph might very well be where the game is won or lost though. Rudolph will be the one to get a long look on third downs and red zone possessions. It used to be Chung was almost always lights out, but his inconsistencies have shown the defense’s problems in a microcosm. I wonder if Obi Melifonwu might get another look in coverage this week as he did a bit last week in a special package.

Expect the Vikings to do what all passing offenses have done against New England… bunch formations, lots of crossers and underneath passes that attack the linebackers and safeties covering the middle of the field.

The front of the defense does what they do and when they’re playing good fundamentals — getting off blocks and tackling — they’re fine. No one other than Trey Flowers will draw all that much attention but the rest of the front is capable when they’re on, especially at home. Sensing a theme here?

With Cousins a limited threat with his legs, the Pats defense should be breathing a sigh of relief because their lack of athleticism is less likely to be exposed. Just as I liked their chances against Aaron Rodgers at home I like their chances against this offense, even if the Vikings have the weaponry to make things interesting.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Burkhead, Michel and Develin – Can’t say it enough, the Patriots will go as far as this trio takes them. We know what we have with Gronk, Edelman and White, the star weaponry, but it’s the secondary guys doing damage on the ground which takes the pressure off. The Pats can throw it 100 times using nothing but the big three, but that’s a precarious road to take and one that will put as much pressure on the defense.
2. Wise, Clayboryn and Butler – The Patriots lack of sacks is one of those things that can be debated. “Sacks don’t matter, it’s better to get disruption… etc”. But eyes don’t lie and the Pats just haven’t gotten consistent pressure in any form and these three guys really have no other job than to get after the quarterback. Flowers can’t do it alone and when Wise, Clayborn and Butler play well, the entire defense looks monumentally better.
3. Eliminate Rudolph – I don’t think the game hinges on Thielen and Diggs. Both could have solid games and still see the Vikings lose. No, I think the game is won or lost by how many key catches Rudolph has. Patrick Chung needs to have a game.
4. Field Position – I always put off the special teams struggles until here and despite some punt team improvement, the kickoff team continues to rank near the bottom of the league. This is such a hidden yardage area of the game but it’s a vital one and an area of weakness that must be fixed before January.
5. Win – As always it’s all that really matters. Usually we get a peaking Patriots win around this time of year and this could be it for the 2018 Pats. But even that would do little to overshadow the pending road trips to Miami and Pittsburgh where we’ll get the truly defining games of 2018’s team. This will wrap up the third quarter of the season and set up the drive to the finish.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Vikings 21