Patriots Gameplan: Week 14 at Dolphins

Just two weeks ago the Patriots convincingly beat the Dolphins 35-17 and now they’ll travel to Miami for the rematch this weekend where the Monday Night Football betting odds are looking pretty favorable.

As someone who is primarily just rooting against injuries, things are always scary facing a team that has that DGAF attitude. And with the wounds from two weeks ago still fresh, there’s some added anxiety about this one. ‘Keep Suh away from Brady’s knees’ might be my only point of emphasis.

The 2017 Patriots are clicking on all cylinders and if they get through the next four games fully intact from where they are now, including getting Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy back to 100 percent, they’re very likely playing in another last-play Super Bowl. Do they have a fatal flaw? Every team does if they don’t play well. This isn’t the most talented front seven the Pats have ever had, but as always, they just make it work.

These final divisional games feel obligatory. Maybe the Pats have a sloppy game and blow it. They’ll lose one of these last four, but everyone expects it would be in Pittsburgh, (if at all).

Here’s the gameplan to get out of Miami with a win, and most hopefully, injury-free.

Offensive Gameplan

Last time around we were getting our first glimpse of the Lewis-Burkhead offense. They combined for 166 yards of offense and a touchdown. The rest was done by Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski, who combined for 165 yards of receiving. That kind of balance is almost impossible to stop. Now the Pats will be without Gronkowksi, who is equally important in both facets of the game.

The key, as has been the case all season, is getting Lewis going early. He’s been so effective at loosening up defenses early in a game. The Patriots’ run game struggles in recent years, where they ranked 14th-12th-17th the last three seasons in DVOA. This year they’re 6th. If Miami stops the run early in the game and forces the Pats into their passing game early, it could open up things for a pass rush that had eight QB hits on Brady two weeks ago.

Chris Hogan returned to padded practice this week, suddenly morphing the Patriots into more of a spread team with Gronk out. Getting Hogan back would be a big boost as Phillip Dorsett never seemed to click with Brady. He has just seven catches this season. There will be more receiving options in this game and Hogan was really having an outstanding season. If he picks up where he left off the Patriots offense could hit new heights.

Gronkowski is vital to the offense. Will his absence hurt the ground game? What about in the red zone? The Pats got by without him and won a Super Bowl last year, but it just makes things so much more difficult.

We’ll have to see who we have on January 1st. At least we know Gronk will be healthy for Pittsburgh.

Defensive Gameplan

The Dolphins do have some pretty good receivers, but as we’re seeing with this Patriots team, its strength is their secondary. The pass rush is sporadic and the run defense is by some metrics the worst in the league. Teams move the ball on them, but they clamp down as usual, and have seen their points-allowed drop like sleeves from a hoodie.

Flowers and Van Noy are critical. Without them the edges of the defense are susceptible. The duo combined for three sacks of Matt Moore, and now with Jay Cutler, Miami could have a bit more of an advantage. But again, the secondary is New England’s strength.

Miami, like most teams nowadays, will need the game to unfold in a very specific way for them to pull the upset. They have the offensive pieces and Kenyan Drake did put up 120 yards on the Broncos. But with a fully operational Malcom Brown, the Pats defense also got a boost they didn’t have two weeks ago.

All things considered the game lies with McCourty-Chung-Harmon-Butler-Gilmore. Those five are the defense’s best players and unless they revert to early season communication and tackling problems, the defense should be just fine against this Miami team.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Get Lewis Going — The Pats like to open the game with James White and a passing look and, as we saw last time against Miami, it can stall out. It’s an old adage but it’s true — establishing the run is vital. When Lewis has rolled it sets the tone for the game and takes some pressure off of Brady. When Brady’s relaxed points are scored. Maybe they’ll give Burkhead the leadoff role, either way, an early commitment to the run is vital.
2. Replace Gronk — Impossible to replace, Gronk did it all. Now the run blocking, seam stretching and red zone touchdown catching will have to be done by a combination of others.
3. Butler/Lee/Wise Pass Rush — Adam Butler has really maintained his impressive burst all season. He’s really tough to block and seems like he’s poised for a game with a couple big plays. Wise has had his moments but he’s still learning on the job. This season of experience is invaluable. As for Lee, he burst onto the scene last weekend, but does he have it in him to be a consistent NFL player? If Flowers limited or out again this rookie trio must step up. No secondary can cover forever.
4. Gillislee Now? — Last week I advocated giving Mike Gillislee another shot. He didn’t get it, but he did win a practice player of the week award. So maybe this week? Roll him out there and protect Lewis/Burkhead a bit?
5. Win — For however many years I’ve been doing these gameplans, ‘win’ is always the last one. This week I almost changed it to ‘stay healthy’.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20