Patriots Gameplan: Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens

There are certain games that define a team’s regular season and this one against the Ravens sure has the makings of a pivotal contest for the 2016 Patriots. There are plenty of reasons one could argue the Ravens are an inferior team, like their 27th-ranked offense or their 3-4 start to the season and struggles on the road.

But here’s the fact, the Ravens know how to play the Patriots. They won’t be intimidated coming to New England, where the Patriots have already lost two games this season. We all thought the 2014 Divisional Playoff game would be a cakewalk, instead the Pats had to dig themselves out of two 14-point holes as Joe Flacco consistently tore them apart until his final game-sealing interception.

Add in the atmosphere of a December Monday Night Football game, the lingering bad blood from the Ravens starting Deflategate and this one should be a classic that will tell us a lot about the 2016 Patriots.

Strap on your helmets for my gameplan…

Offensive Gameplan

Spread and torch. The Ravens have the best run defense in the game and Football Outsiders says they’re on pace for the best run defense ever. So no, this does not mean rolling LeGarrette Blount out there right off the bat and running him head-on into the wall. No, this game was made for the Dion Lewis-James White Pony package.

Not having Danny Amendola will certainly sting in this one, so it will be a heavy Edelman-Hogan-Mitchell game. I wonder how much they can afford to manage Martellus Bennett. Hopefully he’s better this week coming off what he called his worst game against the Rams. His health and effectiveness is the true wild card, plus the Ravens are the top-ranked tight end covering team. If he’s back on track the Patriots offense should have a few double-digit play scoring drives. If he’s not, they’re going to have to generate ways to involve another threat (Matt Lengel?).

The offensive line has been solid in recent weeks, but few teams will match their physicality like the Ravens can. It will be tough sledding, especially on third-and-short, which will likely be the plays that determine the outcome.

This is a game where we find out what the Patriots offense is truly all about at this stage. No Gronk. No Amendola. Limited Bennett. They’re going to have to lean heavily on some of the new faces like Hogan and Mitchell, while hoping that Lewis and White show they are true difference makers in a game that fits their skillset well.

 

Defensive Gameplan

There’s one huge key against these Ravens — take away the middle of the field passing, especially to tight end Dennis Pitta, who leads the team with 61 catches. In the past it was the deep ball, especially the underthrown ones, and while those can still be a factor, what makes this offense go now, without much of a running game, is the short passing game, smack dab in the middle of the field.

Last week against the Dolphins, Flacco targeted the short middle 20 times, the short left 11 times, and the short right 14 times. Pitta and Steven Smith accounted for more than half of those targets. He had just four deep pass attempts for two catches and 34 yards.

Pitta is also the most targeted receiver on third down (30), followed by Mike Wallace (28) and Smith (19).

Add this all up and it’s clear the gameplan must start with taking away Pitta. The safe assumption is that this job will fall to Patrick Chung, with some healthy jams from the defensive ends and linebackers. Chung’s fallen off a bit this year, with the Patriots dropping from 15th vs. TEs in 2015 to 23rd this season in DVOA, but he’s still a very solid piece of the puzzle. The Pats used to be able to mix Jamie Collins into the TE coverage, but now it looks like it will mostly be on Chung with perhaps some Devin McCourty sprinkled in on third downs.

Elsewhere the matchups would appear to be Malcolm Butler on Smith, Eric Rowe (likely with over-the-top protection from Duron Harmon) on Wallace and Logan Ryan on Kamar Aiken. But I’m not sure how much three-cornerback packages they’ll play.

The run game has been effective in spots recently, with Terrance West (650 yards, five TDs) and rookie Kenneth Dixon leading the way. Kyle Juszczyk is an effective weapon that the Ravens use in a receiving role. Stopping the run is always important and the Pats aren’t far behind the Ravens in that regard.

Aside from the matchups, since the Pats are more than willing to mix in plenty of zone, what tactic might they use to clog the middle of field? The three-safety package with Chung and McCourty playing down in the flat, along with linebacker Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower would muddy things up nicely.

We want to see Flacco throwing outside the numbers and deep. They might get a couple of their usual underthrow PIs, but they won’t win the game on those alone.

 

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Defend Middle of Field – Yes,  we just touched on it extensively, but this is the key part of the field this week. While making sure those zones are covered, it’s also about getting Flacco off the spot and forcing him to throw on the move. So yes, finally, a true test of the Patriots pass rush just as we’re starting to feel a lot better about it the last few weeks.

2. Win the Trenches – This is where Patriots-Ravens games are absolute wars, in the trenches. The Patriots’ young offensive interior has done a remarkable job this season, but the tests are only getting harder with each passing week. The Ravens play the same brand of football the Patriots do and the offensive line will likely be asked to do a lot of pass blocking. Protecting Brady is always a huge key, but matching the Ravens physicality and topping it is critical to controlling the game.

3. Underthrown Deep Balls – It’s Joe Flacco so you’ve got to be aware of this one, especially as the game comes down to the finish. You can’t make an entire offense out of these, but in critical moments they are certainly on the table. It’s up to the cornerbacks to have good awareness, to turn and find the ball and not just run into the receiver as he pulls up. The safeties, especially Harmon (who got the ’14 AFCDG-winning interception) have to play smart.

4. Misdirection and Trickeration – Not gonna lie, I want just one ineligible receiver-esque play just to get in John Harbaugh’s head a little bit. It’s like a tradition now. Hopefully it can be run from a position of strength, not to spark a comeback. Fully expect the Patriots to get tricky and fun with their pony package of Lewis and White. The Pats always have a trick up their sleeve and it’s a rock-solid guarantee they’ll bust one out this week.

5. Win with No Injuries – This game is critical not only for the Patriots to maintain their pace for homefield, but for the team to find their stride against a rival who plays them tough. This is the time of year when the Pats start playing their best football, especially at home. Pulling out a win without losing any one important would be an excellent spark at the perfect time. And set up another chance to go get a win in the house of horrors, aka Denver.

 

Prediction: Patriots 20, Ravens 18