Patriots Gameplan: Week 15 at Denver Broncos

We’re going back. It’s no secret that Denver has been a house of horrors for Tom Brady and the Patriots. Three times has Brady’s playoff run ended in Denver (2005, 2013, 2015), more than any other away stadium or team. The annoying thing about Denver, and this was especially true in both losses there last year, is that they’re fluky weird games, with Gostkowski’s missed extra point still looming large over last year’s season ender.

Now the Broncos are not the same team that won the Super Bowl this year. Free agency departures, retirements and injuries have depleted a team that rode their impenetrable defense to a championship last season, despite an offense that was the least lethal to ever raise the Lombardi Trophy.

This is an important game for so many reasons. The tangible — that the Patriots can clinch a first round bye with a win and give themselves options to rest some key players down the stretch. The intangible — getting the Denver monkey off their back and potentially eliminating the Broncos from playoff contention in the process.

Yes, there would be a lot to feel good about after a Patriots win this Sunday, and it appears that the Broncos are primed to get throttled, IF, the Patriots can finally just play their game in the Mile High Stadium.

What the Pats need to do to put a nice big bow on the 2016 season before turning their sites to the playoffs in the gameplan…

Offensive Gameplan

Hey, here’s an idea, keep the snap count fresh and block Von Miller. One of those is easier than the other, but there’s no question the 2016 Patriots were molded as a result of the losses to the Broncos. New England’s inability to run the ball allowed Miller and friends to tee off on Brady, and once they got the snap count down it was pretty much game over (until Brady willed that crazy last drive which fell just short).

The best way to attack Denver’s defense is to keep them in base and run on them. This would certainly be easier if Gronk was still around because of the versatility of the two-tight end offense. Still, their power package, featuring LeGarrette Blount, James Develin and often Cameron Fleming in at tight end, should be effective although it’s far less versatile and dangerous.

Most interesting will be to see how much 11 personnel they play, because that’s the package that best fits their personnel now, but it’s also the personnel Denver defends best. Expect the Patriots to sub a lot of different packages and try to keep the Broncos on their heels.

The Patriots offensive line took a ton of heat in last year’s playoff loss, with Marcus Cannon and Bryan Stork getting the majority of the negative attention. But this year the offensive line has been incredibly solid, and it’s certainly helped that they’ve had great injury luck and rolled the same five-some out there for most of the season. Now they get a chance at redemption even though three of them didn’t play against the Broncos last year.

The Pats have been incredibly determined to stay balanced this season and this game will truly put that to the test. Denver’s 1st overall pass defense and 25th ranked run defense make the plan of attack obvious. But if they can’t get Blount going, or get into an early hole, things could unravel quickly.

But where the Pats might do the most damage is attacking Denver’s backup linebackers in coverage with their “Pony” grouping with Lewis and White. So even if Blount struggles, the Pats should find other ways to creatively move the ball.

Defensive Gameplan

After last week’s best defensive performance of the year, I have high expectations for this week. The Patriots defense did all they could in the 2015 AFCCG. Outside of two touchdowns to Owen Daniels (with Jamie Collins in coverage), the D allowed just three points in the second half. Usually that’s enough. But it’s not when Von Miller is in berserker mode.

As Belichick pointed out this week, the Denver offense is what it is. It is what it’s always been. And the coaching points to shutting it down have always been the same. There are no surprises, it’s just about execution. That all starts with the zone running game that has long been Gary Kubiak’s staple.

After playing just one snap last week (the safety), rookie linebacker Elandon Roberts could find himself in a prominent role this week. Roberts is quick to get downhill, just what is needed to blow up the zone running game. If not Roberts, Shea McClellin will have his toughest task of the season since he moved to more of a linebacker role. Dont’a Hightower will also be a huge key. He went down with an injury in last year’s regular season game in Denver and run defense promptly fell apart and the tide turned against the Patriots.

Expect last year’s matchups that worked well — Ryan on Thomas, Butler on Sanders, to be the foundation of the coverages, with a reversion back to more man coverage after last week’s zone-heavy game plan.

As always, it will all start up front with Malcom Brown and Alan Branch, who must control their blockers and move with them, not getting cut block to the ground and thus allowing any creases to open. While Rob Ninkovich has plenty of experience against this kind of running attack, and Jabaal Sheard saw plenty of it last season, I wonder if Trey Flowers and Chris Long might have issues.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Play Clean: After last year’s games in Denver and last week’s Rumble with Double Fumbles, this should be at the forefront of the coaching points this week. Taking care of the ball and understanding every situation to make the correct play. Of course avoiding the fluky stuff that always seems to happen to us in Denver is easier said than done. Who would’ve thought Gostkowski would miss that extra point and how badly it would come back to haunt them? It doesn’t have to be flashy. Just play a clean game and don’t shoot yourself in the foot. That’s like 90 percent of winning this game.

2. Don’t Abandon Blount: Far be it from me to tell the Patriots offense this, they’ve been sticking with Blount all season long and it’s paid off for everyone. Blount doesn’t have to go over 100 yards, he just has to be effective and keep the defense honest. But if the Pats are able to really get Blount rolling, we could see the kind of revenge score we’re all looking for.

3. DE Discipline: Aside from the zone runs, the play action and QB roll out plays are a huge staple of the Broncos offense. This will require the defensive ends to stay aware at all times and not crash down trying to stop the run, thus leaving themselves open to get exploited. The defense as a whole must play smart and athletically in this one. If they do that, Denver should have a hard time moving the ball.

4. Brady Legacy: A win this weekend and TB/BB will have a winning record against every team in the NFL, but more than that people will always hold Brady’s struggles in Denver over the head of his legacy. He’ll have another game in Denver next season, but wouldn’t it be great to see him put together one of those unstoppable games?

5. Win, with no injuries: This is it, perhaps the last meaningful game of the regular season. This is a game where the Pats can pic up a bye and perhaps make a final strong statement for Brady’s MVP chances. We’re so close to the end, any significant injury at this point would be a huge blow. You can’t purposely avoid injuries but we’re all praying the Football Gods can get us through this one and then we’ll see how important a win against Bryce Petty and the Jets is next week.

 

Prediction: Patriots 37, Broncos 13