Patriots Gameplan: Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Patriots’ 2017 season is finally here. Yes, there’s been plenty of ups and downs already, as there often are during the summer and fall, but really, for the Patriots the regular season doesn’t truly start until December and here it is.

So now things get real. Had the Patriots won Monday against Miami this game in Pittsburgh would’ve had a little less flair. But now, it’s everything. The Pats are still very much in the driver’s seat of their own destiny, but a loss would set a nuclear bomb off with just two weeks to go, possibly sending them all the way down to the third seed below, gasp, Jacksonville.

In a season that largely felt like going through the motions suddenly things could take a drastic left turn into unfamiliar territory. The good news? The Patriots have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers in every meaningful game during the Belichick/Brady dynasty. Brady has feasted on the Steeler defense, going 3-2 in the Steel City and 4-0 at home.

There’s no question where we’d all prefer the AFC Championship to be should there be a rematch, although the Pats have beaten the Steelers in two AFC Championships in Pittsburgh. I’d prefer not to have to try and make it three.

What the Patriots have to do to define their season with a back-against-the-wall win this weekend in then gameplan!

Offensive Gameplan

The hot topic question is whether or not the Steelers are finally going to mix it up and play some man coverage instead of the zone defense that has been torched relentlessly by Brady. It’s a lot harder to do without Ryan Shazier, but they can’t really just keep on running into the wall, playing zone and hoping that Brady doesn’t pick them apart. Something has to change, but instead of scheme it could be as easy as the Steelers front dominating. Then coverage doesn’t really matter all that much.

It was a similar situation against the Broncos in 2015. Brady had pretty much had his way with Wade Phillips’ philosophy until the 2015 AFC Championship and that’s when Wade switched it all up and the Patriots were left befuddled and picking Brady up off the turf on dropback after dropback. But again, without pass rush nothing will work.

So I’m not all that wrapped up in zone vs. man. I’m focused on who wins the line of scrimmage.

After last week’s performance against the Dolphins, and with Marcus Cannon going on IR officially, there’s plenty of reasons in the forefront of our minds as to why this week could look similarly ugly. Every time we see the Steelers I tell myself this is the time they really put it together, but even in 2011, when the Steelers dominated the Pats in Pittsburgh, it still wasn’t a blowout. That’s the Patriot way.

What was most missing last week, aside from Brady’s off game, was the balance that had come to define the new 2017 Patriots offense. Maybe that was because Gronk was suspended or maybe it was just one of those games. Regardless, I don’t expect the same kind of flat ass Patriots team to come out and that’s why I think we’ll see that balance clicking again.

It really starts with Dion Lewis, who last week had just five carries, his lowest total since their last loss of the season to Carolina. If the Patriots can manage to get Lewis rolling everything is going to click, even if the Steelers play the man defense game of their lives. And then there’s that tight end Rob Gronkowski who’s averaging almost 100 yards and more than a touchdown in the five games he’s played against the Steelers. Last week Gronk’s suspension was a point of conversation and now it’s like this nice bonus to get the rested best tight end of all time back for the biggest game of the season.

If Brady finds his rhythm early it will be lights out in Pittsburgh. The easiest way to ensure that happens is to keep him clean by getting Dion Lewis going. It’s all about balance, not just assuming Brady can throw the ball 50 times for 500 yards.

Defensive Gameplan

Like the man vs. zone questions about the Steeler defense, the Patriots defense has their own hot button question — will Malcolm Butler match up on Antonio Brown. I say yes. Butler’s seen him a few times already and that experience always helps cornerbacks, but there’s also the side of this that say Butler has had somewhat of a down season despite some excellent flashes here and there.

Butler’s a proud guy and nothing would get him back on track like having his best game of the season against the best receiver in the league. He should still have plenty of help, because not letting Brown bust big plays is the biggest key, but if he’s physical with Brown and makes plays on the ball, plays that he’s often been just inches away from making, it could put Butler on a great course for the rest of the season.

The bigger problem is Le’Veon Bell, whose departure from the AFC Championship last season completely altered the game. The Patriots’ run defense still has plenty of questions around them and Bell will be the ultimate test. His patient style is an interesting matchup to the Patriots two-gapping interior. That should prevent the big creases, but on the edges, where the Pats will certainly have some rookies, the game could be won or lost.

The Dolphins attacked the Patriots’ lack of athleticism at linebacker with an excellent gameplan that forced them to not only run sideline to sideline, but down the field. The Steelers must use a similar approach and they should have some success. Of course the key for the Patriots is to bend not break. The Steelers are going to make some plays, but even as we saw against the Dolphins in the fourth quarter on Monday night, the defense is capable of getting off the field with solid tackling and short memories.

In what could be a track meet for the two offenses, it could very well come down to the defense needing to make one final stop. For the Patriots, who will rise up and make that season-changing play? It’s been my question all season and now here we are, with most, if not all the marbles on the table. Who will make big time plays on the road in a big time game? I’m excited to find out.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Limit Brown’s Big Plays: Antonio Brown is going to make plays, he’s just too good not to, and the Pats know that. The key is just not letting them be of the big scoring play variety. They were gashed early and often in September and it was why they struggled so badly. Are those days behind them? They’re about to get a stiff test from the best receiver in the game.
2. Win on the Edge: Between Malcom Brown, Lawrence Guy and Elandon Roberts, the Pats are pretty good up the gut, but expect the Steelers to do their best to get Bell to the edges, to attack the rookie defenders like Dietrich Wise and Eric Lee and to force Roberts to sift through blockers and make plays. This might be where the game is won or lost because it’s a lot harder to hide this weakness than say, not letting Brown get 50 yard touchdowns.
3. Dion Lewis: All the focus is on Brady vs. the Steelers pass defense but nothing would be better for the Patriots offense than if they get Lewis (and Burkhead) going on the ground. If, like against the Dolphins, the Pats are going spread constantly and predictably, it could be a long night of Brady getting punished. But the run game can work wonders and it’s vital to move the ball that way early and often.
4. Finish Ben: How many times have we seen a pass rusher get to Ben Roethlisberger only to be shaken free as the big QB makes a late down play down the field? When Lee and Flowers and the others get to him, they must wrap up and take him down.
5. Win: No question about it, this is the defining game of 2017 and that’s exciting. It’s what we’ve been waiting for. There’s a fork in the road. One way leads to the top seed and homefield advantage. The other is filled with uncertainty and potentially a game on wild card weekend. We’ll finally see what the 2017 Patriots have when it’s all on the line. Usually it works out pretty well, but it’s hard to shake the feeling the Steelers are due for one against New England sooner or later. And I’d take sooner over later even if it means having to go back to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Steelers 34