Patriots Gameplan: Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills

After one of the worst two-week stretches of the Patriots dynasty, playoff losing ones not included, the Patriots return home to cap off the final two games of their season, first against the 5-9 Bills.

Strangely, this is very much a must-win game for the Pats. They need to win out and hope that Houston loses once to open up the second seed in the AFC. With the disparity between how they’ve played at home and how they’ve played away, never has a bye and homefield advantage felt more important.

The 2018 Patriots might not be the same 12-plus-win juggernauts we’ve seen for the past handful of spoiled seasons, but they’re still a very good team capable of making a Super Bowl no matter what seed they end up at. Still, the most favorable road is the one that stays in Foxboro as long as possible and there’s nothing wrong with hoping for that.

The Pats won’t win many people back over with a victory over the Bills. If the sky is falling at 9-5, beating a team Tom Brady has owned more than any other feels more like an obligation. But again, this game matters in the standings and it matters for the team to get back on track and gain some playoff momentum.

Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

With the Josh Gordon experiment coming to a sudden halt this week in the midst of the Steelers fallout, it was a significant blow to the offense. Gordon put together 40 catches for 720 yards and three touchdowns and quickly became a go-to, overshadowing Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett.

Now, against a capable Bills defense that held the Pats offense to just four field goals through three quarters in the previous meeting in October, the Pats will have to change horses mid-stream. Luckily Hogan and Dorsett are still around and while both feel far better as bit role players, both will have to pick up the slack.

Gordon didn’t have the same burner speed he once did, but he was a tough, physical cover who could make contested catches. That’s a rarity with these Patriots receivers lately and losing that element will hurt.

Still, I think the loss of Gordon matters a lot less if the team can get the running game back on track after two bad weeks. It’s like Rex Burkhead came back and it’s actually made it harder for Michel and White to find a rhythm. It’s as if the offense is a lot better off when they have no choice but to run just two guys into the ground. If I had a goal these last two weeks it would be to ride the ground game and really feature it extensively.

The Bills are 1st in passing yards and 10th in rushing yards, 3rd overall in DVOA, indicating it could be tough sledding for the Patriots offense. That’s a good thing. No one needs to get lulled into a false sense of security. If the Patriots move the ball and finish with touchdowns in the red zone it will be more impressive than the post-game “it’s just the Bills” takes.

Even at home, this is a tough challenge for the Patriots offense that really needs to reset, but if the o-line and backs are in sync and get things moving on the ground, it should spark the offense to a resurgence.

Defensive Gameplan

Not a terrible effort last week, but still this is a defense that has not risen to the occasion situationally the last two weeks. Against Miami they failed to make the last tackle and against the Steelers they failed to get a timely last stop that would’ve opened the door to a potential short Tom Brady game-winning touchdown drive.

Buffalo’s passing offense isn’t all that threatening, and given the Pats’ run defense woes, it seems clear the Bills will run Chris Ivory and LeSean McCoy into the ground rather than rely on Josh Allen throwing all over the Pats’ secondary.

The Bills are averaging 174 rushing yards over their last five games, in which they’re 3-2. In those two losses they had three turnovers in each. In the three wins they had no turnovers.

So the Bills path to victory does exist. Play safe with the ball, break the Pats D for over 200 yards rushing, have Allen chip in with some long third down scrambles and hope the defense hold off Tom Brady in the red zone like they did for most of the first game.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but it will all start with stopping the run for the Pats defense. They were content to let the Steelers run last week because their passing weapons were so dangerous. What about a team with no real passing weapons?

The defensive gameplan seems clear and it’s a good chance to get a vital piece of the team on track. I am fully expecting to see the sure-tackling, total team defense we’ve seen at home this year and after two weeks it will be a sight for sore eyes.

Five Points of Emphasis

1st Down – This is key on both sides of the ball and where this game will be won or, gasp, lost. The 2018 Patriots that win on first down are a very good team. The 2018 Patriots who get pushed around for chunk yards or stuffed for losses/no gain are the ones who are beatable any time, anywhere.
Pace – With Gordon out, the Patriots go back to the offense they were running in training camp, fully intact. That’s actually reassuring even if Dorsett has never been all that effective aside from a timely catch here or there. Still, they should be able to pick up the pace of the offense a bit, something that was unlikely to happen with in-season get Gordon. This is a good tool to put the Bills D on their heels.
Brown-Guy-Roberts – The heart of the run-stopping defense, this trio makes or breaks the defense in each game and this time will be no different. Maybe Danny Shelton gets back in there, stopping the run is that important in this one.
Finish – A big theme, this Pats team not only needs to finish drives and games, but they’re close to finishing the season after a less than stellar December, a rarity for the dynasty. They must finish now in all senses.
Win – Weird to be in a playoff seeding struggle at this point but you are what your record says you are and this Pats team has lost five games for the first time in nine seasons. Winning is everything at this point, even if it doesn’t calm our nerves about their Super Bowl potential.