The end (of the 2016 regular season) is here! Let’s face it, for Patriots fans the 16-game regular season is really more of a preseason. We pray to the Football Gods that no one gets hurt and rest assured that we’ll be one of the top two seeds in the AFC. Of course everyone gets worked up over who’s breaking out and who stinks, but really, does any of that matter before January?
Now this 16th game is not without meaning. The Patriots still need a win (or an Oakland loss in Denver) to lock up the top seed in the conference. A win for the Dolphins would be the difference from facing Houston (the fourth seed) or Pittsburgh (the third seed). It’s obvious which is preferable there.
So expect this to be a good game and one that both teams play to win, at least initially.
What the Pats need to do to close out a 14-2 season with the road to the Super Bowl going through Gillette Stadium in the gameplan…
Offensive Gameplan
The Patriots rushed out to three-straight touchdown drives in Week Two behind Jimmy Garoppolo before Garoppolo’s shoulder was injured, Jacoby Brissett was thrust into duty and Miami made a comeback attempt with three-straight touchdown drives of their own. The Pats needed a Duron Harmon interception to preserve the 31-24 win.
Ideally the offensive gameplan this week is the same as it was against the Jets last week — ride the running backs to take the pressure off Tom Brady and slowly strangle the life from the Dolphins. Miami has given up more than 150 yards rushing in seven of their 15 games, and in another they gave up 140. If they’re serious about avoiding Pittsburgh, the Dolphins front will have to come prepared to win the battle in the trenches and stop the run.
With Jelani Jenkins and Byron Maxwell unlikely to play, it certainly puts a lot of pressure on the Miami front to make up the difference.
The Pats do have the little problem of likely not having Malcolm Mitchell who’s dealing with a knee injury. Danny Amendola was seen without a walking boot nor limp on Thursday, but he’s going to be out too. That leaves just Edelman, Hogan and Michael Floyd and the last thing they want to do is over rely on Edelman now.
Of course that means Floyd could see some significant snaps, if only to protect Edelman. He played 18 snaps against the Jets. The worst case? If the running game can’t get going, leaving them in third-and-longs and needing to lean on Edelman.
The best case? The Dolphins run defense stays home and the Pats ride it out on the backs of Lewis, Blount and White.
Defensive Gameplan
The Patriots defense gets another chance for everyone to dismiss their performance as they face Matt Moore, filling in for Ryan Tannehill, whose season was lost to a torn ACL/MCL in Week 14.
I touched on the defense a bunch in the Thursday 10 Pack, but the biggest point is that the Patriots defense is experienced, fundamentally sound and they tackle extremely well. They have literally gotten better every single week. We all know the offenses they’ve faced, but we’ve also seen them face plenty of average or below quarterbacks who have torn them up in recent seasons.
The 2011 defense ranked 28th on third down (4th in 2016) and were lit up by Chad Henne (416 yards), Vince Young (400 yards), Dan Orlovsky (353 yards), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (369 yards). That team came within another crazy Eli Manning pass from winning the Super Bowl. So no, I’m not buying that this defense, that is statistically close with the best defenses of the Belichick era, is the house of cards. Shutting down shitty QBs is what good defenses are supposed to do. Nit picking about not facing tough enough challenges is not enough to disqualify an impressive season for the Patriots defense.
They’ve been incredibly effective at stopping the run this year, ranking 5th in DVOA (opponent adjusted success rate), their best ranking under Belichick. This week it’s Jay Ajayi (1213 yards) and stopping him is pretty much the gameplan. Elandon Roberts should get plenty of quality reps.
Don’t let Ajayi get their offense going, put the game in Moore‘s hands and wait for the turnovers to turn it into a blow out.
5 Points of Emphasis
1. FINISH – A theme for the week and the season. Finish and take next weekend off to get healthy and focused. This Patriots team played with something to prove against the Jets, and the Dolphins are just the right challenge to keep them sharp and focused.
2. LOOSEN WITH LEWIS, BASH WITH BLOUNT – We’re seeing the backfield finally in its true form — the slippery Lewis to start, then the hammer with Blount. White the third down specialist, though Lewis equally effective in the role as well. Develin the runaway cement truck in front of them all.
3. BROWN/BRANCH/VALENTINE vs. AJAYI – After last week’s benching for being late to a team meeting, Malcom Brown should play with something to prove. He was just starting to hit his stride before this setback. Unleashing him, and the monstrous Alan Branch, against Ajayi is how to win then game.
4. BLOCK SUH – Seriously, double team him every down, just keep him away from Brady, and especially Brady’s lower leg area. We almost saw it last year. I’ve already had a Week 17 critical injury (Welker 2009), I don’t need another, especially from just the kind of player to do it.
5. STAY HEALTHY – We’ve come this far and while losing Gronk was a huge blow, this was really one of the better seasons for injuries in recent memory. That’s always such a huge key in the Super Bowl run, and if we can just get through one more game without losing anyone they have to be the clear favorite to raise the Lombardi Trophy in Houston. Deep breaths.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Dolphins 0
