Ah, the final gameplan of the season. These are always my favorite pieces of the week to write, and now as I sit here in California on my final day of vacation, preparing myself to return to the arctic cold of Boston, I can’t help but feel a bit relieved that the regular season prologue is nearly behind us.
Let’s be honest, at this point it’s hard to move the needle for Patriots fans. Looking back on 2017 it’s hard to recount much more than the Steeler game and the injuries. Wins are relief. Losses are catastrophic. Then we get to this point, where the Patriots will hopefully wrap up the first seed, and none of it really matters.
So here we are, staring down the barrel of another 13-3 season. A meltdown loss to the Jets at this point would be beyond surprising. Our 5-10 pals from New York adjacent are closing out a disappointing season, but they still gave the Pats trouble back in October, with the Pats getting a 4th down stop at their own 49 yard line to preserve the 24-17 win.
Considering the circumstances now, with the Pats needing a win to assure themselves of homefield advantage and the Jets ready to mail it in to the offseason, not to mention the bone chilling cold which this game will be played in, all signs point to the Pats rolling.
Here’s the gameplan…
Offensive Gameplan
There’s no question the 2017 Pats offense is all about Gronk and Dion Lewis. Those two players have defined things in recent big wins and keeping them healthy through this final battle is absolutely critical. I’d rather lose this game and homefield than lose one of those two to injury.
But the biggest question in this game is can Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell return to give the Pats’ passing game a boost? It’s really a lot to ask for Mitchell to come back after one week of bitter cold practices and actually contribute to a playoff run, but who knows, he surprised us all last year as a rookie and maybe he’ll come out of the gate flying. I’m not holding my breath though.
As for Hogan I think he’s a game changer for the offense. His absence has really hurt on third down as neither Phillip Dorsett nor Kenny Britt have been able to give Tom Brady a consistent outlet, especially in critical spots. He’s been practicing for a few weeks after a false return against Miami in Week 14. Otherwise the entire second half of the season has been a total wash for Hogan and it’s easy to see how much it’s limited the offense.
I don’t really care how it all looks, as much as it would be great to get Hogan and Mitchell back and see them play a lot of snaps and look in sync with the offense. Get the win, stay healthy and rest up for the AFCDG.
Defensive Gameplan
The Pats didn’t have to face Bilal Powell the first time around but he’s coming off 145-yard rushing performance, his second-best output of the season. WIth Bryce Petty at quarterback, expect the Jets to feed Powell early and often to test New England’s run defense that is ranked 32nd in DVOA.
Really, that’s the Jets only path to victory — if Powell gets going and Petty plays clean and completes the third-and-shorts that he needs to to keep the chains moving.
Ideally, I’d love to see Kyle Van Noy back this week to get in a tune up for the playoffs. He hasn’t played in the last three games and his presence on defense has been missed. If there was a most improved player on defense this season Van Noy would be it. He was really coming on, making key plays before injuring his calf. He adds much-needed athleticism at the second level along with timely plays in the backfield.
Then there’s James Harrison, who should see plenty of snaps this weekend as well as the Pats try to get his feet wet in their system. Harris could be a viable substitute for Eric Lee on the edge, playing a hybrid role where he could help set the edge and get after the quarterback, two weaknesses on this defense of late.
I’d expect the Pats to switch Trey Flowers over to the defensive right side, where more pass drops are required while Harrison plays the right side that he’s occupied most of his career.
There’s no big secrets this week. This is a great tune up game in freezing conditions and the front will have to be ready to win the battle up front to slow Powell. In an inconsistent season it would be great to see a solid overall performance against an offense a Super Bowl-contending defense should dominate.
Five Points of Emphasis
- Tune Up — The four guys I want to see in this one are Van Noy, Hogan, Harrison and Mitchell. Together they could really put the 2017 Pats over the top as Super Bowl favorites. Without them, I worry some of the flaws that we’ve seen recently could continue and spill over into the playoffs. Get those guys in, get them back up to speed and we should have every confidence in this Patriots team come two weeks from now.
- Stop Powell — This is the single most important football key in this one. Without Powell running wild it’s hard to see a Jets path to victory. Might be a good time to let expendable David Harris see a ton of action against his former team.
- Bolden Time? — With Mike Gillislee joining Rex Burkhead and James White as wounded running backs I really don’t want to see Dion Lewis have to carry the full load in this one. Why not just let old vet Brandon Bolden, he of little-to-no yards-after-contact see some action?
- DB Consistency — Despite expectations of being a shutdown back end, the Patriots’ defensive backs have been the model of inconsistency this season. If they’re giving up big, broken plays to Petty I’m going to lose my mind.
- Win — This is it. Win and never leave home again unless it’s for Super Bowl 52 in Minnesota. It can’t be overstated how much of an advantage that would give the Pats, despite them blowing two of their three losses in Foxboro. Undermanned/injured Pats teams faltered in Denver in 2013 and 2015, but with homefield advantage the Pats can overcome a lot. Plus I’m not sure there’s a team like the 2012 Ravens who have the fearless veteran team that can dictate a game in New England in a playoff game. In many ways, this game is to go to the Super Bowl. That alone is reason to get excited.
