Patriots Gameplan: Week 17 vs New York Jets

The Patriots wrap up their regular season on Sunday, hosting the Jets. It’s pretty simple, if the Pats win they lock up the second seed. Yeah, maybe they could also get as high as the top seed but it’s more likely that the Chiefs will hold serve at home against the Raiders, securing the top spot.

I’ve been on vacation this week in California, and I’m most looking forward to my favorite thing about the Pacific Time Zone — 10am football starts. The break comes at a good time because I feel like I have a pretty good handle on who the 2018 Patriots are and how the next month will play out. It’s nice to just get out of the media cycle and take in that we’re on the verge of another BB/TB playoff run and one with lowered expectations.

It’s impossible to separate each season into its own separate headspace. Inevitably, Tom Brady of 2018 must be compared to Tom Brady of years past, just as the entire team is. The ticking clock of decline has everyone waiting with baited breath for the easiest and epic final chapter of the Belichick-Brady Dynasty. The next month will be fascinating as the 2018 team writes its fate.

Here’s the gameplan to finish off a tumultuous regular season.

Offensive Gameplan

I found Leonard Williams’ quote from Mike Giardi to be dead on.

The Patriots offense has just been so much more effective in games where they have a productive running performance. Now, I’m torn because this feels obvious forever and just last week against the Bills the Pats tore up the place running the ball and still had issues in the passing game, albeit against a very good defense.

Last week was a major outlier, with the best rushing performance of the season but the lowest expected points. Otherwise the expected points, and offensive performance even to the eye, correlated exactly with the rushing performance. Despite last week, I still think this is the big truth about the 2018 Pats, it’s all about the ground game.

The disappearance of James White and Chris Hogan in general, the lack of Gronk in the red zone, the end of promising Josh Gordon and it leaves you wondering how far the Pats’ passing attack can get with just Julian Edelman and Cordarrelle Patterson with his gadget plays.

For the playoffs White, Gronk and Hogan must come through in every game to truly give the Pats a chance against the best teams. But for this weekend’s finale, just lean on Michel and Rex Burkhead, who I’m starting to see as one of the biggest teases of all time.

Unless it’s an absolute aerial assault from Brady and the passing game, nothing that happens in this last game is going to redefine the 2018 Pats. The best case is just a solid overall game where no one gets hurt and everyone chips in.

Given what we know perhaps what should be most encouraging is a season-best performance from the three running backs.

Defensive Gameplan

Last week’s defensive performance was one of the best of the season but it was worth minimal credit because it was against the Bills. As a defense guy, I’ve found this season frustrating. At home they’re one of the best team defenses we’ve seen. On the road they’ve been pushed around. I can’t figure out why it’s been so inconsistent, and thus a hallmark of then 2018 team has been that inconsistency.

What I do know is then secondary is the strength of the team. They’ve been nearly lights out all season at home. So against a traditional passing team, they’re going to be just fine. Hence, against Sam Darnold and the Jets they should be fine.

What will determine if the game is interesting or not will be the front seven. They can play solid but rarely overwhelm teams. An inconsistent rush on early downs has long been an issue and if Darnold comes out throwing it could put more pressure on the secondary. No one can cover forever and when your front has two-gappers it means more time in an easier pocket.

It shouldn’t be a secret that throwing on early downs to underneath receivers is what has been most effective against this defense. Hence why so much depends on Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy, the only semi-consistent playmakers in the front this season.

If the Pats’ front is pushed around in this one it will be a really bad omen. So yes, it’s all about first down on both sides of the ball.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. No Injuries – This season has been hard enough, I just couldn’t handle a critical injury in week 17. Right now it feels like our Super Bowl hopes depend heavily on getting Brady and Gronk ready to go with a week off.
2. Burkhead – Seems like the perfect time to get a Rex Burkhead goes off game. That would really excite me for then playoffs, because coupled with Michel we could really be looking at an effective ground game that could help keep pace with some of the other offenses out there.
3. Van Noy – Seems appropriate that the only assured foundational piece of the front seven caps off his excellent season with another great game. Not sure where the Pats would be without Van Noy right now.
4. Hogan – Is it me or does every Patriots film review seem to have a “Hogan was open!” part? I don’t get too worked up about that stuff but Hogan just hasn’t been a factor this year and that will have to change, at least in a handful of key plays if the Pats are to make a Super Bowl run. Would’ve love to see him get some confidence against the Jets.
5. Win – Playing on Wild Card weekend would be a major blow, not one that kills Super Bowl hopes entirely but one that certainly makes the road harder. I don’t care about the top seed, but the second seed is critical and then we can just hold our breath for a max of three games, at least two of which would be at home or on neutral field.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 17