Week Two is here and the Patriots face a tough AFC Championship rematch on the road in Jacksonville. How many times have we seen these kinds of games early in the season? The young upstarts are looking for a franchise-altering win. Sometimes, like the 2009 and 2010 Jets,  they live up to the hype. But often the emotional drain of beating the Patriots makes the young upstarts sleepwalk through the rest of their season.

More often than not the Patriots just prove their still the Patriots.

There’s no question the Jaguars are a talented team, but talented teams are hit or miss when they go against methodical football machines. If the Jags play with the kind of energy that the 2009 Jets did, they could and should exact their revenge. The Patriots are in it for the long haul though and even a loss in Florida that exposes flaws will be just a bump in the road of their development toward December and January.

It’s always fun to have an exciting road game against a potential new rival early in the season. What do the Pats have to do to get the win and make the rest of the league Patriots-depressed again?

Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

The very first question is who is going to be the running back? It’s amazing that we’re already at that point but with Jeremy Hill lost for the season in the opener, Rex Burkhead back on his favorite place (the injury report) with a concussion, and Sony Michel still recovering from a cleanup knee procedure last month, the Pats are already scouring the waiver wire for backs.

Michel spoke to the media this week so that’s a pretty good sign that he might be ready to make his debut and boy do they need him. If not it’s just-signed Kenjon Barner, who’s a smaller back who’s more likely to just return punts. Does James Develin get goaline/short yardage carries? Do they make James White play the whole game? Call up Ralph Webb? How the backfield plays out in this one is a huge question mark, especially because it feeds into the Pats biggest weakness… receiver depth.

Jacob Hollister‘s return would be a nice boost in that department, but once again the Pats will use Hogan and Dorsett for most of the snaps, sprinkling in Patterson and getting him the ball in creative ways. If the undermanned backfield can’t get anything going on the ground, Jacksonville will be happy to play multiple defensive backs. If they can stop the run with five- and six-man boxes the Patriots are in trouble.

As always, I am a firm believer in not instantly going spread offense with White out of the gate, so they have to find a way to generate yards on the ground. They were committed to Dion Lewis against the Jags last year even though he wasn’t super productive and they’ll have to do the same in this one. So whoever it is — Burkhead, Michel, Barner, Webb — they’ll need to get positive yardage.

In a perfect world, Michel goes off, Brady stays out of third-and-longs and the Pats offense puts up 28+.

Defensive Gameplan

I’m still riding high after last week’s defensive performance and I really don’t want to come crashing back to earth because of Blake Bortles, especially if he’s without Leonard Fournette. My biggest defensive question is how specialized they stay. Bortles is mobile enough to warrant attention, but the defense was in perfect sync last week it appeared that they could simply play their game and still be successful rushing four, mixing up blitzes, etc.

The trend out of the gate was Trey Flowers, with Keionta Davis on running downs, then Flowers with Wise, Butler and Clayborn on passing downs. Will Wise or Clayborn start to see more time against the run? Will Davis get pass rush chances? The Pats have a lot of depth to play with upfront and if they continue to win one-on-one matchups they’re going to be a badass defense that sucks to play against, something I’m not sure we’ve been able to say since the Bruschi-Vrabel-McGinest-Harrison years.

The Patriots defense is in far better position to deal with the Jags this time around. They’re more stout up front and, oh yeah, they have Dont’a Hightower. If the coverage plays like it mostly did against the Texans, Bortles will be looking to tuck and run a lot.

My expectations for the defense are soaring and there’s no reason to think they won’t come at Bortles with guns blazing.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Run the Ball – We don’t know who it will be getting the early and short yardage carries in support of James White, but they must be successful. If first down runs are going for negative yardage, putting the offense in second-and-12’s, third-and-eights, it’s gonna be a long game.
2. Paging Chris Hogan – Brandin Cooks did a lot of damage to the Jags last year, and with Phillip Dorsett playing his spot now he should draw extra attention. That leaves Chris Hogan, who had two catches for 20 yards in last year’s AFCCG and just one catch for 11 yards last week against Houston. It’s time for Hogan to have himself a game, they might need him to play the game of his life.
3. Seek and Destroy – Last week the defense played like a unit that was sick of being shit on all offseason. They played fast and coordinated and it was quite something to behold. Rookie Ja’whaun Bentley has helped transform the defense. Now, it’s time to make a statement on the road against a team that likes to talk.
4. Survive Third Down – The Pats were 4-14 on third down against the Texans, a number that would get them beat most other weeks. With a big question mark at running back, Tom Brady will just have to find a way to make things happen on third down. This is likely where the game is won or lost.
5. Win – I want the collective “Patriots are still the Patriots” grumble and it would be sizable if the Pats have their way with the Jags. It won’t be easy, especially if the Jags play as fearless as they need to. But the Patriots don’t blink and it takes a 60-minute effort to knock them off. The Jags might have a quarter or two in them, but steady wins the race.

Prediction – Patriots 17, Jaguars 16