Patriots Gameplan: Week 3 vs. Houston Texans

Here come the Texans and all their former Patriots once again! Including the preseason this will be the third time in a year the two teams have met, so yeah this feels like a game in the division against a familiar foe.

Somehow the Texans are always rolling out a different quarterback surrounded by the same excellent pieces at wideout and on defense. And usually that’s the difference between these two teams. No matchup more clearly illustrates how hard it is to win in this league without a good player at the most important position.

Still, there’s always some trepidation when you’re going against a talented front like the Texans’, led by JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. If those guys play out of their mind and rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson plays a clean game, who knows, maybe the Texans can pull off the upset. But the Patriots are near-unbeatable at home and have already had a wake-up call stinker in their home opener. I expect the Pats to turn in one bad game in September, usually on the road. Two would be a big problem, especially if both of them were to come at home.

Here’s the gameplan for what the Pats have to do to get by some old friends once again and move above .500 for the first time this season ;)…

 

Offensive Gameplan

The running backs emerged last week against the Saints as we hoped they might, but I still feel like the passing game is finding its way to who they are and what they can do. Obviously, against an excellent front seven, getting the ball out quickly is paramount. If Rob Gronkowski‘s groin were to keep him out the offense would lose their third down engine for the third time this season.

Marcus Cannon‘s availability is also of paramount concern. On the right side he’ll see a lot of JJ Watt and if he can’t go it will be Cameron Fleming, who’s experienced but a downgrade. Nate Solder also had plenty of struggles early this season. It was largely apparent during my film review that he just seemed to lack any “pop” to his game. Winning this game offensively all starts with the protection up front, especially up the middle on pure passing downs. If Watt, Clowney, Bernardrick McKinney and Whitney Mercilus are neutralized on those third downs it will be a long day for the Texans.

Ideally I’d love to see Brandin Cooks get more involved underneath, getting the ball in space and using his speed after the catch rather than using it to get deep. Brady hasn’t seemed quite on the same page as Cooks on some plays this season, their continued development is a big key to focus on.

James White must be the focal point to keep the chains moving, but I’d also like to see Dion Lewis utilized more. If Rex Burkhead misses the game with his rib injury you can expect a very much expanded role for Lewis, perhaps in the starters role. Don’t be surprised to see a coming out party for him, especially after he was so effective against the Texan defense in the playoffs.

Defensive Gameplan

Stopping the run is always a first priority, but when you’re going against a rookie quarterback and an offensive line that has struggled the only way they can get off the hook is if they start moving the ball on the ground. Against the Chiefs, the Pats’ defense were not good on first down. They improved against the Saints and it must continue to be an area of focus against the Texans, where limiting Lamar Miller is huge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFHCAXH919Y

But this also includes Watson as a runner, who had a 49-yard rushing score against the Bengals last week. Alex Smith‘s mobility captured some of the Pats’ defensive attention in Week 1, and that led to them playing on their heels instead of attacking like they did against the less-mobile Drew Brees. I know if I was Bill O’Brien I would use every option at my disposal to attack the edges and athleticism of the Patriots’ defense. I would also try to stress their communication as much as possible on all levels of the defense.

The Patriots’ struggles against bunch sets has been a headline all week and I jumped into some of it here. O’Brien will see this as clearly as any of us amateur analysts so expect the Texans to play with their receivers a lot before the snap, including those bunch sets that force the Patriots’ secondary to decode them.

In the first matchup of 2016, the Patriots used a lot of Cover 2 against the Texans, but of course that was against Brock Osweiler, but with respect to  DeAndre Hopkins and Braxton Miller. More zone looks could make sense to keep eyes on Foster.

We’ll also be watching Malcolm Butler, to see how, where and when he plays, but putting Eric Rowe on Miller makes sense from a size standpoint, and if you’re paying Stephon Gilmore that much, shouldn’t you trust him to take Hopkins? We’ll see how all that plays out.

Sticking with what they used against the Saints, with Elandon Roberts playing a large number of snaps, could be dangerous. Watson is a mismatch for Roberts and a spot the Texans could look to exploit. Simply put, the Texans’ offense represents a repeat of some of the problems they faced against the Chiefs. That’s why there is plenty of intrigue here from a defensive standpoint.

Can they make improvement in areas they’ve struggled? The Texans will test those spots, but ultimately it’s a rookie quarterback and there’s no excuse to give up more than 20 points to one of those in Foxboro. They must attack the Houston offensive line, winning that battle up front will set the tone for a 60-minute win.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Attack on Defense: What must be avoided is the Patriots defense getting so wrapped up in their own heads that they fail to execute. This was the case against a diverse Chiefs’ attack. The Texans aren’t quite the same challenge but many of the same elements are present and no one will decompose the Pats’ defensive struggles like Bill O’Brien. Hence the defense must think about attacking on every down. Win at the line of scrimmage, win the game.
2. Third Down Protection: As always, if you protect Tom Brady you’re probably going to win, so neutralizing Mike Vrabel‘s front seven is key. The Texans are so deep it will be largely about one-on-one matchups that will truly test every offensive linemen the Patriots play. If running backs and tight ends are needed to chip those players it will make life even more difficult in the quick passing game. Get ready for an all-out assault on our protection.
3. Spread Them Out: One way to mitigate the rush is to spread out the offense and limit how many of their defenders they can send after Brady. McKinney in coverage, especially on White/Lewis ,is a matchup to expose and get him out of the box.
4. Secondary Communication: Devin McCourty acknowledged this week that the communication hasn’t been up to par early in the season. It’s kind of surprising considering Gilmore is the only new piece, and all the safeties and Butler have been together since 2015, but they have to work it out or else the Texans wide receivers will do damage. Yes, it’s a rookie quarterback, but any quarterback should hit wide open receivers on busted coverages.
5. Win: The Pats are already 0-1 in the AFC and another loss, especially one coming at home, would be extremely detrimental to playoff seeding. Say what you will about the Texans and the AFC South, but this is an AFC playoff team and the Patriots need to respond in this game accordingly.

 

Prediction: Patriots 29, Texans 13