Patriots Gameplan: Week 4 vs. Carolina Panthers

The Patriots close out the first quarter of their season on Sunday as they welcome the 2-1 Carolina Panthers. Yes, this is about the time we start to know exactly who the 2017 Patriots are. The next few games will really show what this team’s strengths and weaknesses are, though everyone already has their opinions despite just a three-game sample size.

The good? A resurgent deep passing attack that leads the league with 20 passing plays of 20 or more yards. The bad? A regressed big play defense that has given up 17 plays of 20 or more yards (14 passing, three rushing), bad enough for third-worst in the league. Of course there are other issues to monitor, but at this point it’s time to find out which of those are just because of the randomness and strengths of the first three opponents and which are real problems.

October is just about here and we should be getting away from the sloppiness that comes with the relaxed contact in training camps and general rust. The Patriots see September as an extension of the preseason, but now, things should start getting real.

Here’s the gameplan to close out the first quarter of the season at 3-1 with a win over a Panthers team that is very much a mirror image of the Patriots — dominant on one side of the ball, dreadful on the other.

 

Offensive Gameplan

The Panthers come in ranked 6th in overall DVOA, 9th against the pass and 5th against the run. They’re led by Luke Kuechly who has the speed and anticipation to make plays all over the field. It’s a veteran defense that won’t be intimidated by Tom Brady and the Patriots’ weaponry.

With no gaping holes to attack the Patriots must focus on execution, especially in short yardage situations. The Patriots are 23rd in the NFL with three-or-less yards to go for a first down. This was highlighted last week by two failed third-and-1’s, one passing, one rushing, in the fourth quarter against the Texans. Conversions there would’ve prevented the need for a last-minute comeback.

With Rex Burkhead out again, the focus should be on the three running backs – James White, Dion Lewis and Mike Gillislee. So far the Pats rushing attack hasn’t quite been as exciting as advertised this offseason, ranking 14th in rushing DVOA. We’ve been waiting for Lewis to get back to 2015 form, but in limited touches so far he’s looked far more like the guy that bounced around the league before getting to New England, rather than the guy who couldn’t be tackled in that six game stretch two years ago. I’m starting to lose hope that he’ll get that magic back, but he should get a good shot at it this weekend.

I continue to hope the team can use White and Lewis even more in the passing game. I think it’s critical to finding their groove on third down where they’re currently ranked 9th in the NFL, their fourth-worst mark during the Belichick era. Of course, that still is pretty good all things considered but the process of replacing Julian Edelman in critical situations is ongoing.

Ideally what the Minister of PatsPropaganda is ordering is a resurgence in the running game and short passing game. Those are two critical elements of the offensive engine that have been sputtering early on. Relying on the deep passing game is just too slippery a slope and prevents the offense from finding a rhythm needed to consistently move the ball over the course of the game.

Defensive Gameplan

Kelvin Benjamin is going to play despite a knee injury, meaning the Patriots can’t just focus on containing Cam Newton and rookie Christian McCaffrey who has emerged as the focal point of the Panthers’ offense. There’s been plenty of talk this week of the Pats’ defense facing another mobile quarterback after they’ve struggled against the variations of the Kansas City offense as well as the broken play ability of Deshaun Watson. This will be a good test to see if they’re getting better in that regard.

Everyone loves to glom on to any weakness they can find with the Patriots, and because they’ve had Tom Brady, that usually means the defense. Now that they’re near the bottom of the league in most rankings they’re an easy target. But I think their growing pains are all fixable and the line between a statistically terrible defense and a defense that wins games is far smaller than anyone ever realizes.

It feels like we go through this every year, and in 2017, with multiple new faces playing significant time, it shouldn’t be all that surprising that they’ve had their struggles in the first three games against two playoff teams and a Hall of Fame quarterback. Still, they made the plays they needed to to win the game last weekend and hopefully they can build off of that.

Perhaps Dont’a Hightower will play this weekend and that would obviously be a boost to get their best player back, but even if he doesn’t this defense is capable of shutting down this Panthers’ offense. It’s been beaten into the ground but defense really is about doing your job. Staying in coverage, not drifting out of your zone when the play breaks down, and most of all, just performing whatever your task is on each play. The inconsistencies in these areas are why they’ve gotten burned, but if they just stop giving up the big plays the defense will be just fine.

As alway it’s a process, and this weekend is another chance to get better.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Win Up Front: Let’s focus on the offensive line because they just haven’t quite been totally in sync yet and Brady’s taken way too many hits while the running game has been average. With better offensive line play the rest of the offense can start to click. Win on first down, make manageable second and third down distances and keep the offense moving down the field.
2. Defense Do Your Job: I know, it’s a cliche at this point, but it’s really the key to getting the defense on the same page, especially against a quarterback who can kill you with his legs. Even if Cam Newton isn’t running as much by design these days it was the broken plays where Watson killed them last week with his feet.  Defenders weren’t finishing when they had a chance to get the sack and the back end was getting caught staring at the ball rather than staying in their zone and covering their responsibility.
3. Take the Load off Gronk: I worry about focusing too much on Gronk, especially on third down where he’s been targeted 10 times while no one else has been targeted more than five. If they continue to lean on Gronk, and Amendola for that matter, both will be in traction by the bye week. They need to find other ways to move the ball on the critical down and I still believe Dion Lewis could be the man to help.
4. Finish: Touched on this a bit with the defense, but I think this is an overall philosophy to take into this game and focus on. It applies to the short yardage runs, to the blocking up front, to the pass rushers, to the extended/broken plays and right on down the line. The Patriots must play with a physical but calm attitude and finish every play, every series, every quarter and the game itself. A performance like that will be one to really spark things going into the meat of the schedule.
5.  Win: As always this is all that matters, as much as we all want perfect 10s in the style points category. The 2017 Patriots are not a perfect team, but they are still a very good team who should only continue to get better. Every early season win is money in the bank for down the line. The Patriots should beat this Panthers team and there can’t be an excuses.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Panthers 13