Patriots Gameplan: Week 4 vs Miami Dolphins

The 1-2 Patriots return to the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium after a two-game road losing streak to face the 3-0 Dolphins. The Pats last left Foxboro looking like a team mostly rejuvenated, especially on defense, but after losses in Jacksonville and Detroit the tide has turned against them. Usually, we should remain even-keeled about what happens in September but a 1-3 start would put the Pats in uncharted territory and behind the eight ball in the division for the first time in forever.

It’s been a long week of buildup as 2017 continues to get drudged up and every former Patriot free agent is now seen as the one who got away and has set the Patriots on course for demise. Still, football is a weird game. You can say the Pats lack talent, but that’s always kind of been the case. They’ve built their dynasty by believing in the system and everyone doing their job. And everyone has not been doing their job.

That’s where we can find hope. That with simply better one-on-one play and tackling things can turn around quickly and a team that looks like it might be falling apart can return to playing winning football.

The Dolphins have a huge opportunity. The Pats are on the ropes and a win for Miami would put them firmly in the driver’s seat in the division, especially since they haven’t won at Gillette since 2008’s wildcat game. They’ve won five times against the Pats in Miami since then which would make the rematch in December all the more exciting no matter what happens between now and then.

Miami has played good football and deserves their 3-0 record, but the Pats have a way of busting out their best football when their backs are against the wall. It’s hard to remember a time when they were more backed into a corner than right now and I’m sure we’ve all been itching to see them get back on the field.

What do the Pats have to do to turn their season around and avoid a disastrous start? Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

We don’t know for sure if this is the week Josh Gordon premieres, but we do know it will be the last week before Julian Edelman returns. Neither player will save the Pats’ season singlehandedly, but both could certainly be a big help to getting things in gear. For now, let’s assume Gordon will be out again or of minimal impact, meaning the further-depleted offense that features just three wide receivers and two running backs who have suited up are all the Pats have to go on.

Kenjon Barner is almost certain to get a shot this weekend, but he’s never broken 42 rushing yards in a game in his career. The running back was re-signed after Rex Burkhead was placed on IR this week and Barner won’t be of much help on early downs for Sony Michel, who looks like he’ll have to carry the load on early and short-yardage downs. There isn’t a more direct path to success than if Michel gets going on the ground. It’s the ultimate recipe for success which keeps the third downs manageable and the offense balanced. What’s happened far too much is the running game has floundered and the lack of depth at receiver is exposed. Admittedly, it’s a narrow path to success and one that no one should feel too confident about. Still, it is possible Michel has a breakout game and essentially saves the Pats’ season.

If they can’t lean on Michel the Pats will have to find new ways to move the ball. If they’re forced to lean on Gronk and James White as the only clutch receivers, they’re going to be in a dogfight once again. Chris Hogan showed some flashes toward the end of the Lions loss, but it’s once again clear he’s not an Edelman/Amendola clone. He’s at his best on intermediate to deep routes when he doesn’t have to get immediately open off the line. Phillip Dorsett had zero catches last week, a crazy stat when considering how much he played and how much they need him.

Miami’s pass rushers of Robert Quinn and the ageless Cameron Wake will challenge the Pats’ edges and at least we’re down to one leghunter in Kiko Alonso now that Suh is gone. Xavien Howard has three interceptions already and will be a huge factor if the Pats end up in third-and-longs. Reshad Jones missed last week but he has two picks himself. Those kind of ballhawks are dangerous to a team that has no choice but to throw down the field.

Not much has changed from the last two weeks. The Pats must make lemonade out of their injury-depleted weaponry and they just don’t have a lot of options. Of course, you’d love to see Jacob Hollister and Gordon out there. Anyone would help, but it’s questionable if either will suit up. If the Pats are left with the same weaponry as last week, minus Burkhead, they’re going to have to put together one of their most gritty victories of this unbelievable era.

Tom Brady at home is always hard to defeat, and this will be one of the biggest challenges of his career all things considered at 41.

Defensive Gameplan

The defense just played terrible top to bottom last week without Patrick Chung and Trey Flowers. Ja’whaun Bentley was one of the only guys who looked like he was playing at an NFL level while everyone else looked slow, lost and confused for most of the game. Now Bentley’s on IR and John Simon, long a favorite Pats fit of mine, has been added as a reinforcement. If Flowers and Chung can’t go again, things are going to be even harder without their rookie linebacker.

Cyrus Jones has returned to a punt returner and running back coverage specialist, he’ll see plenty of Kenyon Drake, the most targeted player on third down. Miami overall is pretty balanced in their passing attack with five players all in the 11-14 target range. Old friend Danny Amendola should get plenty of targets with a rookie like JC Jackson likely to see time in the slot if Eric Rowe is out. Rowe missed Thursday’s practice.

Sometimes it just comes down to playing better, but we’ve been saying that far too much with this defensive group since last year. The Hightower-Roberts-Van Noy trio of linebackers has just been the very model of inconsistency. It’s especially disappointing for Hightower, who seems like he has to prove all the injuries haven’t caught up with him.

Pick a player across the defense and it’s easy to list off a bunch of plays they’ve blown the last two weeks. They certainly know it and now they get another stiff test. It all starts with stopping the run with the middle trio of Brown, Guy and Shelton, all of whom took turns being pushed around last week. Flowers’ return would reset the front, allow them to get back to a 4-3 front after they went to more 3-4 looks. Without Bentley that’s just not realistic now.

Which new players could step in and save them? Maybe Jackson or Keion Crossen. Derek Rivers didn’t do much in his debut as a sub rusher. Expect Simon to get plenty of looks, especially if Flowers can’t go.

I’ve followed this defense with a microscope for the last decade and can honestly say I don’t know what to expect this weekend. Much of it depends on who’s healthy. Miami has a good sense of who they are and what they do. Ryan Tannehill is completing 73 percent of his passes and has seven touchdowns to just two interceptions. He’s also a threat to run on third down, and anyone who can run is a threat against this defense that suddenly has looked even slower than they were last year.

Kenny Stills will challenge the Pats’ secondary downfield, another spot that has been a mess. This is so disappointing going back to last year when you’d think a high-priced group led by Chung, Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon would be so much better. Instead, they’ve blown more coverages since the 2017 opener than they did from 2013-2016. They must get back on track and find some consistency again, otherwise, it might be time to shake things up on the back end.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Fundamentals – Just get back to simple football in all senses, but especially on defense. Get off blocks and make tackles. That’s defensive football’s core and what the Pats’ defense has most gotten away from the last couple of weeks. You don’t need talent to do those things, you just need to do your job.
2. Go To Michel – Again, the Pats don’t have much choice, they must ride Michel again and hope that the offensive line can open up the seams for him. Miami is 8th in rushing yards against so it won’t be an easy task, but again the option of just using White and the passing offense for 50 snaps is a recipe to get everyone injured and that’s only if they’re actually moving the ball.
3. Steal it with Teams –  The Pats always put more value in special teams than any other team and this is the kind of game where they can rise up and steal one even if the offense and defense aren’t clicking. New England was in a similar spot in 2011 on MNF, backs against the wall, and the special teams came through. This could be the sneaky way to go.
4. Win First Down – On both sides of the ball this is where it all starts. Get 4-plus yards, stop for 4-minus yards on first down and things will be a whole lot easier on everyone. But it’s an attitude the Pats haven’t displayed the last couple weeks. Play with fire right out of the gate and the rest will fall into line.
5. Win – As always this is what matters most. Reinforcements are coming next week. If the Pats can just even things up at 2-2, stay just a game behind Miami with an important hold at home in hand, they should be a-okay. But it’s a short week with Indy coming up on Thursday night and there won’t be much time to regroup regardless of the outcome. 1-3 is nearly unfathomable for this franchise and it cannot happen. If these Pats have any pride at all they’ll put up a hell of a fight and that’s what I expect.

Prediction: Patriots 21, Dolphins 17