Football is already back upon us as the Patriots, donning all-white uniforms, will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football in a game that will reveal a lot about a team that was shredded on defense just four short days ago.
Simply put, by any metric, this is the worst defense Bill Belichick has put on the field since he arrived. And I say this as a Patriots uber-blogger who has focused extensively on the defense for the past 10 years. From advanced metrics like Football Outsiders’ DVOA (a personal fave) to simple things like yards- and points-per-game, the Patriots defense has been the worst in the NFL.
Now they get a stiff test on the road, facing a talented passing attack run by Jameis Winston with talented receivers Mike Evans and Desean Jackson, and a fresh-off-suspension Doug Martin, not to mention two dangerous tight ends. We’re not used to the Patriots having their backs against the wall and teetering on the edge of uncertainty, but here we are, in Week 5, wondering if this defense can be salvaged.
Tom Brady is off to one of the best starts of his career, and the fact that he’s doing it at age 40 is simply incredible. It’s unfortunate that the defense suddenly looks so lost, because if this continues they’re going to waste one of Tom Brady’s final years. While we can count on Brady to put up over 30 points almost every game, it no longer assures a win.
Still, the defense’s problems are so fundamental, I can’t help but believe they’ll steady the ship. Can they do it on a short week and on the road against a good offense? We’ll find out tonight.
Here’s the gameplan to get a win and move on to an extended 10-day break to help re-evaluate how the team can move forward.
Offensive Gameplan
Brady has simply shown no signs of letting up, and while the offense has had to adjust early in the year without Julian Edelman and there have been some inconsistencies in the protection and running game, they’re still ranked second in the league in DVOA. So yes, it’s been a work in progress but the Patriots offense just continues to roll and there’s no reason to think the Bucs have the answers to stop them.
Of course there’s talent up front led by Gerald McCoy, and rookie linebacker Kendall Beckwith has great speed and is used in a variety of ways. But there have been plenty of talented and fast players that have gotten roasted by Brady’s offenses over the years. The Bucs are ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA so yeah, the Pats should move the ball, targeting Vernon Hargreaves early and often.
They also have just one single sack on the season. Yes, sacks are overrated as a stat and the Bucs are more disruptive than that stat indicates, but still, if they can’t get to Brady it’s going to be raining touchdowns all night long.
What this game is really about is to continue to focus on execution, especially in the running game, which is ranked just 12th in DVOA. That’s still a slight tick up from last year’s 17th but expectations were so much higher. The Bucs’ run defense has been stout, ranking 5th in the league in rushing yards allowed and 3rd overall in DVOA, but on a short week, with guys still very much sore from Sunday, I’d love to see Mike GIllislee just punish them, especially with Gronkowski popping up with a thigh injury that could limit him.
Really, the biggest threat to this offense right now is becoming too over-reliant on Gronk, especially in critical situations. The development of Brandin Cooks is a process and his speed should give the Bucs problems, but Brady needs to continue to become more comfortable with this version of the offense.
If they execute like they have been they should score, but can they score enough to outpace the Pats’ defensive deficiencies? That’s the question. If the offense has a bad game it could be lights out for the Pats in Tampa.
Defensive Gameplan
Simplification. That’s what this game is all about. It’s a short week so they didn’t have a chance to jump in and really correct everything that went wrong in the first four weeks of the season. The next 10 days will be time for that. But for now it’s time to take a step back and play to their strength — man defense.
Stephon Gilmore has struggled to play zone and pattern read, especially out of bunch sets, but what he does really well is follow a receiver and blanket him. That’s what his task should be tonight. Give him Mike Evans and have him track him the whole game, for better or worse. He’ll give up some plays, as everyone does with Evans, but it won’t be the wide-open busted plays that absolutely devastated the defense last week. It also might help him get some confidence back because it’s a safe bet last week’s performance left him a bit shaken.
Eric Rowe has already been ruled out, which might be a good thing because he was terrible last week as well. So if they go man, the matchups would be: Gilmore-Evans, Butler-Jackson, Jones-Humphries, while Chung and McCourty deal with the tight ends Brate and Howard. Man defense makes it a physical matchup more than a mental one, and that should limit the blown coverages… you’d think.
But this will then put the focus on the front seven, who has escaped the hard questions so far because the secondary has been so terrible. Winston is not much of threat to run, and as we saw against Drew Brees, when the defense can just focus on a traditional pocket passer, they’re far better equipped. Dietrich Wise hasn’t played more than 40 percent of the snaps in a game but he continues to make noise almost every snap he’s in there. I’d lean on him this week and play him more to help cover the deficiencies at linebacker.
Elandon Roberts could still be limited with an ankle injury which hurts. There’s been speculation of Dont’a Hightower moving back to the middle once again, an annual journey for him when the linebacker depth is thinned and there could be some merit to that. So a four-man front of Flowers-Guy-Brown-Wise with Hightower and Van Noy at LB could make a lot of sense. Can they stop the run with that front? That’s where the game could be decided.
Five Points of Emphasis
- Simplify: As mentioned a move to more man defense could help the secondary get back on track. Think less, play fast. We know Gilmore and Butler can play man, and it won’t totally stop the talented TB receivers, but it will be a return to more of a bend-don’t-break feel. There are spots to attack in man coverage, like Chung vs. tight ends and Van Noy vs. running backs, but I’ll take my chances there if they can just avoid giving up their usual five 20-plus passing plays.
- Dominate Special Teams: I really think this is where this game could be won. The Patriots over-invest in special teams players and it’s short weeks like these that that investment must pay off. This includes the basics of hitting all kicks by Gost, flipping field position by Allen (who’s off to a slow start) and hopefully a special teams score that takes some pressure off the rest of the team.
- Run the Ball: Would love a game where the Pats don’t have to risk Brady and can shorten the game by moving the ball on the ground. This of course keeps the defense off the field, which these days might be a necessity. Whether it’s screens to Lewis/White or opening holes for Gillislee up the middle, this would be a great game to lean on the backs.
- Fundamentals: These Thursday night games are usually sloppy with turnovers and weird plays swinging the results. With the Pats coming off a sloppy loss it’s time to just keep things simple (see #1), tackle and play a “quiet” road game. Just be efficient, don’t give up yards-after-catch and most important, be safe with the football. If they do that, they’ll have a good chance to win.
- Win: It’s gonna be a long 10 days if the Pats lose this one, even longer if their defense looks totally uncoordinated again. We’ll go easy on the style points given the quick turnaround and being on the road, but snagging a win and setting the stage to get back on track is the most vital thing.
[…] — It’s not often that I nail one of my gameplan articles, but this week I think I was pretty dead on. […]