Patriots Gameplan: Week 5 vs Colts

This post is sponsored by Goldberg and Wiegand.

Just like that there’s another game for the Pats, a Thursday night meeting with the Colts who we haven’t seen since Week 6 of 2015. The Patriots-Colts rivlary certainly needed a little cool down period after a decade of Brady-Manning then Deflategate. Two seasons have passed and it’s a good time to renew those old bad feelings.

The Patriots once again staved off their annual demise in September and bounced back with a dominant win over the Dolphins that reassured everyone that the New England Football Machine roars onward. Teams truly have to prove it every season and that’s why the Patriots continue to be the class of the NFL.  Some teams may play perfect and catch them early in the season and get lucky, but like the house in Vegas, it’s just a matter of time before the Patriots start winning again.

The return of Julian Edelman and the hopefully-continued development of Josh Gordon are what we’re all watching fro tonight. Those two players could put the Patriots back in the conversation about the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the defense has two lights out games, and two stinkers. On a short week, things won’t be any easier on them, at least they’re at home.

What do the Pats need to do to get the win before an extended off-week at 3-2? Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

Once again, it’s likely up to Sony Michel, James Develin and the offensive line to kickstart the offense. If they get going, good things will happen on offense. If they don’t I’m not sure Edelman’s ready to save them just yet. And even if he is, targetting him 10-plus times isn’t a good recipe. Still, having Rob Gronkowski unexpectedly active is a great sign not only for Michel, but Edelman who can be managed a little easier, especially on third down.

They must continue to spread the ball around, getting Phillip Dorsett, Josh Gordon and especially Chris Hogan more involved. If Jacob Hollister is able to go after two different injuries sidelined him for the first three of four, all the better. The offense still has room to be rounded out and just now they’re getting the best players into their spots.

Yes, the biggest excitement this week is really getting to see if Gordon builds on a solid two-catch debut. Edelman will establish the floor for a very good offense, but Gordon has the potential to set the ceiling through the roof. If he catches more than three balls the hype will be real.

The Colts have a young defense and those tend to be overwhelmed by the Patriots’ offense. Is this the same overwhelming Patriots offense? We’ll see.

Defensive Gameplan

The defense evolved a bit last week, with more 3-3-5 nickel and 3-2-6 dime packages and there was a lot to like about how well they played. Jason McCourty is coming on at the right cornerback side. Eric Rowe is battling an injury and that’s after a slow start to the season. His absence has allowed JC Jackson to pick up an interception out of the quarters package.

As the Pats got back to basics of what makes them best — McCourty at FS away from the LOS, Chung in the box, Harmon as a centerfield safety, Hightower protected off the line of scrimmage — things magically turned around. Expect them to continue to play into what worked, especially on a short week.

Jonathan Jones has emerged as an excellent slot corner and even without Ja’whaun Bentley, the trio of Hightower-Roberts-Van Noy has been enough. There might not be a ton of depth, but the top line is clearly good enough, as they’ve shown in two of the first four games.

Without T.Y. Hilton, the Colts have weapon problems that make the Patriots’ look tame. Nyheim Hines is a capable receiving back who should be the primary sticks-moving weapon, while Jordan Wilkins carries on early downs. They’ll have to get going against the Patriots front to give Andrew Luck any prayer with his depleted passing offense. If the Patriots are as stout this week as they were last week, the Colts should struggled to move the ball as badly as the Dolphins did.

Luck is the wild card as always. He has led his team back numerous times, including two impressive drives to get to overtime last week against the Texans. Luck is among the best at improvising and making the necessary plays to keep his team in the game. New England must keep him contained as they’ve usually done in the past.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Clean Game – On short week, unfamiliar matchups like this it is usually just the team that makes fewer mistakes that wins.  Taking care of the ball when your body still hasn’t quite recovered from four days ago is a challenge. A weird special teams play, a miscommunication at the worst time… these are the kind of things that swing Thursday Night games.
2. More Michel – Unsurprisingly the Boston punditry was unconvinced by Michel’s breakout 100-yard performance and are still waiting for him to fulfill their lofty first-round expectations. At this point, the Patriots offense hinges on Michel. That might change a bit as Edelman and Gordon assimilate, but right now, third-and-longs are a death sentence.
3. One Feel Good Jules Play – Edelman hasn’t played since Super Bowl 51. That’s insane to me. When he limped out to wave a Super Bowl banner at the 2017 opener I had tears in my eyes imagining how disappointing it was for him. If nothing else, this will just be great to see 11 back on the field.
4. Trench Domination – This feels like it needs to be an old-fashioned Colts beatdown, where the small fast team gets pounded by the physical football machine. The Colts are undermanned and on the road. Show them it’s going to be a long night right out of the gate with the offensive and defensive lines.
5. Win – 3-2 would feel pretty good after the tumultuous few weeks. There’s no question the Patriots are still an ascending team. On offense, the pieces are in place and just need to be brought up to speed. On defense, the depth has been tested but the top line featuring Hightower-Flowers-Chung-McCourty-Gilmore and others is pretty damn good.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Colts 10