Patriots Gameplan: Week 6 at New York Jets

It felt like a lackluster Patriots off week, didn’t it? The Pats had an okay with last Thursday night, but it was so middle of the road that it sparked neither the “Pats are dead” nor the “Pats are Super Bowl favorites” crowds.

Sure there were plenty of complaints like there usually are. I think those were best summed up when I was listening to Dale and Holley for a minute and they were complaining about the offensive line. Then there was a pause and Holley mentioned that Pro Football Focus has the o-line ranked 11th in the league. Silence. What were we just talking about? They digressed. Yeah, it was one of those kinds of weeks, where everyone goes to default complaints but there just wasn’t the same kind of fire that existed after the Panthers’ loss.

The other big headline? That Tom Brady has a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder. By this time we just brush off Brady injuries like they’re no big deal. Brady brushed it off. We brush it off. Do we take his toughness and durability for granted? Of course! But tying any injury, no matter how small, to the offensive line are just the dots that must be connected when you have 10 days off and hours upon hours of sports talk radio time to fill.

How do we feel about the Patriots right now? If we’re being honest with ourselves it does feel like it’s off to another injury apocalypse year like 2013 started out and 2015 became. But it’s still early so no one should be abandoning ship just yet, but keeping the remaining roster healthy, especially 12, 87, 80 and 54 is critical to any Super Bowl aspirations.

In some ways it feels like the Pats are under the radar. I like how Kurt Warner put it, the Pats aren’t the favorites in the AFC, they’re the favorites to upset the favorites. That sounds about right. Still, the real football season is just starting and that’s always when the Patriots start to roll.

This week has been a soft reset. The defense didn’t look lost against the Bucs and the offense showed more explosiveness. Both ran out of gas at the end to make the game interesting, but it’s hard to kill them for that on a Thursday night on the road.

So now we get back to business against a Jets team that could field 22 high school JV players and still play the best Patriots team close in mid-October in the Meadowlands. For whatever reason, that’s just always how it seems to go unless it’s the rare exception like the Buttfumble game.

What do the Pats have to do to get their first divisional win and get the Patriots hype train back on track? Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

One nice takeaway from the Bucs game was the re-emergence of Dion Lewis. His explosive 31-yard run made Bill Belichick’s film breakdown and you could tell how happy BB was to finally bust a big run like that. But now Rex Burkhead returns and the backfield will once again be overcrowded so you wonder if Lewis will be back to spot duty. Still, the Pats seem to love Burkhead as their lead back, so no matter who is in there it’s time for the running game to carry more of the load. If they can’t get the short passing game (aka the scalpel) going like they used to, the running game is critical to taking some pressure off of Brady.

When teams can just pin their ears back and tee off on the offensive line, they’re going to get exposed and that’s when sprained AC joints become broken other things. I truly believe if this offense is to reach its full potential it must come from their running game hitting a level we haven’t seen the 2010-2013 stretch where they ranked 2nd, 4th, 4th and 6th in DVOA. Since then they’ve been a middle of the road rushing team, but are currently 10th, up from 17th last year.

The Jets are pretty stout up front, so unleashing the running game is going to take some patience, but it will be interesting to see how the Pats distribute the carries.

What will be most tempting will be to attack the Jets’ rookie safeties and while I think the Pats should have some explosive plays I continue to worry about leaning on them to make the offense go.You know how those series go. Rush for less than three yards on first down, incomplete shot down the field on second down, no one gets open quick on third-and-long, and punt. Yes, the occasional thirty-yard passes to Cooks or Hogan are exciting but they don’t make a sustainable offense like “four-yard run, four-yard pass, four-yard pass, and repeat” does.

There’s no question the offense is evolving this year for a number of reasons -the addition of Cooks, the loss of Edelman, the four running backs, and the regression of Nate Solder being the headlines. They’ve shown plenty of ability to dominate but it’s been only in spurts and outside of Houston, they’ve been far too quiet with the game on the line.

It’s time for a consistent performance that gets the young Jets defense on their heels and keeps them there the entire game.

Defensive Gameplan

I don’t think the defense got quite enough credit for their first three quarters against the Bucs. Yes, we can slap plenty of disclaimers on the performance but when you force five three-and-outs and two four-and-outs against an NFL team it’s impressive no matter how you try to “yeah, but” it. Do they still have things to work on? Sure, but with Hightower in a full-time role it’s clear how much better the defense was.

Now comes time to build on it against an offense that is ripe for the picking. Yes, Bilal Powell, Jermaine Kearse and Jeremy Kerley can cause some problems but this is the least dynamic quarterback they’ve faced there will be no excuses if they get picked apart by Josh McCown.

The area I’m most interested to watch is the pass rush. That’s where I think they ran out of gas the most against the Bucs. They just could finish things off in the fourth, a spot where vets like Rob Ninkovich always seemed to rise up and make plays. They also played dumb at the end of the first half, taking terrible penalties to give the Bucs a chance at an unnecessary field goal. That’s never been the Patriots defense, so I’m very curious to see if they can maintain discipline and finish things out in all senses of the word over the course of the game.

The Eric Rowe injury might’ve been a blessing in disguise as it forced them to simplify their personnel a bit, expanding Patrick Chung‘s role. I was surprised the Bucs didn’t not challenge the defense with the bunch sets that have given them fits this year, but expect the Jets will not make the same mistake. And that will be a good thing. Let’s see what kind of progress the secondary has made with them.

Once again the Patriots will get no credit for anything less than a shutout against the Jets. But it is one of Belichick’s proverbial chances to get better. Powell will require the most attention, if anyone has the ability to get the Jets offense on track it’s him. Slow him down, put then pressure on McCown and hopefully prosper off turnovers and terrible throws.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Finish – Really the lack of finish was the only headline fault in the win over the Bucs. Had the offense closed it out, had the defense closed it out, it would’ve looked far more dominating and not all that close. But they fell apart in the fourth, not something that is unheard of on Thursday nights. But now the excuses of playing on a short week are out the window. The Pats should be refocused and ready to play their best 60 minutes of the season.
2. New Looks – With 10 days off you wonder if the lineup will be a little different than when we last saw it, whether it’s personnel, scheme or a combination of the two. This will be a good time to get some insight into what Belichick thinks will be playing to their strengths as the time for experimentation is quickly coming to an end.
3. Trench Warfare – The Jets always bring it up front on both sides of the ball against the Patriots and this will be a great litmus test of how capable the Patriots are of winning the battle in the trenches. Can they open holes on offense and pass protect on third-and-long? Can they reset the line of scrimmage in the backfield? They’ve been inconsistent in those areas through the first five games.
4. Unleash the RBs – I don’t want to wait all season to see what the offense is capable of if all four backs have good games at once. With all of them healthy now, and Lewis and Mike Gillislee coming off one of their best games, this should be the game where we finally see the four-headed RB monster we dreamed about all offseason. It will take pressure off the O-line and Brady and give future opponents a whole new problem to solve.
5. Win – The Pats haven’t lost a regular season road game since the 2015 season finale in Miami, and before that it was the Week 16 OT loss to the Jets in New York. Stumbling in a couple games in September is one thing, losing to a less-talented Jets team in October is something else. There are no excuses for anything less than a strong Patriots win this weekend, and with that comes some heightened pressure. They should be up for it.

Prediction: Patriots 33, Jets 13