Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 vs Chicago Bears

The 4-2 Patriots are back on the road this weekend, traveling to Chicago to take on the 3-2 Bears. Bears head coach Matt Nagy is an Andy Reid disciple which could give Patriots fans a bit of a reason to worry. Nagy was the offensive coordinator for last year’s Chiefs team that tore the Pats a new one in the season opener.

Second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky has made solid strides with 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions in leading the Bears to wins over Seahawks, Cardinals and Buccaneers before an overtime loss to the Dolphins last week. The offense is 10th in points and 4th on third down. But it’s the defense that is the more impressive side of the ball where the Bears are 4th in points against and 12th on third down.

They’re led by Khalil Mack, who will be trying to overcome an ankle injury that will limit him in this one (hopefully). The Bears defense is fast, featuring a similar package to what the Patriots’ defense often runs with two down linemen and four standing linebackers who can all run. The Bears have the number one defense in Football Outsiders.

The Pats are winless on the road this season and will be looking to get on track after having lost just once on the road in the 2016 and 2017 seasons. The Bears should provide a good challenge and have the right kind of schemes to attack the Patriots’ weaknesses.

What do the Pats have to do to move to 5-2? Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

The Pats’ offense continued to make great strides last week against the Chiefs. Julian Edelman is back, Josh Gordon is quickly becoming a key piece and Sony Michel has replaced the explosive playmaking of Dion Lewis. The Pats didn’t punt last week and for good reason, they’re a fully balanced offense with a grandmaster at quarterback. Their interior line, led by David Andrews and Shaq Mason, are having career seasons and right now, everything is working.

But we’ve been here before. Specifically 2015, when the Pats looked unstoppable for much of the first couple months before injuries started systematically bringing the offense back to average at best before they limped into the AFC Championship in Denver. Injuries are unpredictable, but as currently constituted it’s hard not seeing this edition of the offense continuing along this exciting trajectory.

The key to it though is Sony Michel, and every week now in these gameplan pieces I continue to make him my primary focus. The difference between the four wins and the two losses has been almost entirely on the ground game. When Michel gets going, the entire Pats offense gets going. When he doesn’t, and they end up in third and longs, it can be a grind.

Now, Edelman and Gordon are pieces that were missing in September. Their presence will allow the Pats to overcome a slow start by the ground game, but they can’t do it all alone.

The Bears have the best DVOA pass defense and the fourth-ranked run defense but it’s not like they’ve faced a murder’s row of offenses. I mean, they lost to Brock Osweiler last week. And shutting down the Cardinals isn’t much to hang your hat on. Put it this way, if anyone is overrated by the stats it’s the Bears in this one and the Brady-led offense will surely provide the kind of challenge the Bears have yet to see. And having a less-than-100-percent Mack is a huge blow.

With a full complement of weapons, the Patriots could very well be primed to make another statement in this game against a statistically good defense. Get Michel going and then start working everyone in. That’s what this Pats offense is right now and if Gordon starts busting off big plays, look out.

Defensive Gameplan

The defense played one of their better games against the Chiefs despite giving up 40 points. 28 of them came directly from four big plays. The Bears are another big Run-Pass Option team, which at this point the Pats should be used to because they’ve already seen plenty of them this season. So really, the key is just to prevent the big plays and continue their stretch of playing well on third down and inside the red zone.

We should all be adjusting our expectations for NFL defenses these days. You simply cannot shut down most NFL offenses for a full 60 minutes. The rules favor the offenses too much and offensive coordinators have gotten so creative. It’s about getting the few key stops that will give your offense the chance to get the handful of extra points needed to win the game. The Pats’ defense, despite any shortcomings like lack of speed at the second level, very much have the ability to do that.

The Bears will challenge the Pats sideline to sideline, especially with Taylor Gabriel, a speedster could cause Tyreek Hill-esque problems. The misdirection and RPOs are very reminiscent of what we’ve seen from the Chiefs in recent years, but it still feels like a B-level model without the game-breaking speed and talent in multiple spots.

Jordan Howard has yet to break 100 yards in a game, while receiving back Tarik Cohen might be the biggest threat to the Pats D, as receiving backs always are. Cohen is the most targeted receiver on third down, catching all six of his targets for five first downs. Allen Robinson should see plenty of Stephon Gilmore.

Overall, the Bears offense is balanced without having an obvious player needed to be taken away. That’s why it just boils down to the Pats playing good fundamentals as they did for most of the last game. Tackle well, get off the field on third down and they’ll be fine.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Michel Michel Michel – It’s a key every week but every time Sony Michel picks up 4-plus yards it’s a huge win for Brady and the Pats offense. He’s the straw stirring the drink and I pray to the Holy Hoodie that he’s got a full healthy season in him because no one player outside of Edelman is more vital to Brady.
2. No Big Plays – It would be great to see the Pats defense just not give up any big plays in this one. If they had done so last week it wouldn’t have gone down the final possession. They’re still ranked 10th in the league with 22 total 20+ plays, showing it’s not necessarily the quantity just the timeliness of the big plays that have hurt the Pats.
3. Gordon Ascending – We’ve seen glimpses of what Gordon could bring to the offense and now I’m just waiting with baited breath for that big OMG play from him. It’s coming and it could very well be this weekend. And when it happens the league will collectively groan at what it means for the Patriots’ chances of going to their fourth Super Bowl in five years.
4. Put the D in Dictate – The Patriots defense has been refreshed this season and just seem to be playing within themselves far better. In games against the kind offense like the Bears they’d often get caught on their heels in the past. This defense feels different and nothing would be better to see them exerting their will on an offense that does so many different things.
5. Win – As always, the fifth point is to win because that’s ultimately all that matters. Getting a road win against a statistically respectable team would be a good way to put the previous two road losses behind them and restore some confidence playing away from Gillette Stadium

Prediction: Patriots 28, Bears 21