Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 at Buffalo Bills

The 5-2 Patriots are on the road again, visiting AFC East “rival” Buffalo who sit at 2-5. The Bills will be without rookie quarterback Josh Allen, meaning that veteran Derek Anderson will start against the Pats for the first time since he and the Browns actually hung tougher-than-expected way back when against the 2007 Patriots.

Despite their record, the Bills defense isn’t a total disaster, ranking 6th overall in DVOA, including 4th against the pass. The problem is that Buffalo has 12 turnovers in their last four games and that will kill any team. Their offense is ranked 32nd overall and 32nd passing and very well could be the worst in the league, and that was before Anderson had to start. There’s been plenty of times to wonder if the Bills could knock off the Pats over the years, and just a couple times they actually did, but this doesn’t appear on paper to be one of them.

As for the Patriots, they’ve won four in a row but given up 102 points in those four wins. The Bills’ inept offense is just what the Patriots defense needs, though in reality, they’re better than the points allowed might indicate. The offense though was really starting to click, just as Sony Michel was lost to a not-as-bad-as-it-looked injury that will have him miss at least this one game. The Pats look like they’ll roll with Kenjon Barner and James White as their only two backs, which is a little concerning, especially if it puts added pressure on the valuable White.

What do the Pats have to do to get to the halfway point of the season with a strong 6-2 record and even their road record at 2-2? Here’s the gameplan!

Offensive Gameplan

I think this will actually be an interesting matchup, considering the Bills pass defense is pretty good and the Patriots don’t really have an early-down back on the roster. Not to say they can’t run the ball, but they’re clearly much better set up for the pass with Barner and White. So they’re going to have to go a little outside their comfort zone. I thought for sure they’d sign Mike Gillislee but for some reason, Belichick just doesn’t mind playing with fire. Or maybe he really does like Barner. I thought he was just okay last week, getting what was blocked and not much more.

For the past two seasons, it’s been clear that the Patriots are at their best when they’re balanced and establishing that balance in this game might be tougher than anyone realizes. If the run blocking isn’t on and Barner is unable to make people miss they’re going to become one-dimensional against a good passing defense and that could be cause for concern. Toss in any more strange giveaways leaving a short field for Anderson and there’s a chance this game is interesting, at least for a little bit.

But what’s different about this year’s offense is that Edelman is back and Josh Gordon is becoming a real problem for defense’s to contend with. They just didn’t have those kind of playmakers last year and that’s why the run game was so much more important than it’s usually been. You could go back to 2015 to see a similar situation unfold.

Who knows, maybe the run blocking is on as it’s been the last few weeks and Barner is able to reproduce what Sony Michel was doing and then it’s lights out for Buffalo.

The biggest thing though? Just don’t turn the ball over, something they have yet to do this season. They were giveaway-less in eight games last season. If they are safe with the rock it’s hard to see them not scoring enough points to win.

Defensive Gameplan

USUALLY THE DEFENSE IS IMPENETRABLE BY NOW!!! Have you been hearing that sort of thing this week? I know I have and I listen to all over five minutes of sports talk radio per week. I even heard the old “talent lack” thing from Bert Breer pointing out that they clearly weren’t talented enough to win a Super Bowl last year even though they were within a fourth-down stop of being talented enough. Sigh…

So I dove into the defense this week and really if the offense stops turning the ball over so much and/or the defense gets off the field or holds them to field goals when they do, things will look much much better.

The defense is not a talent void, especially if we’re talking about Gilmore, Flowers and Hightower. The rest have been inconsistent but there are still high ceilings and expectations, especially on the back end where the D-McCourty-Chung-Harmon trio have led the inconsistency parade. Jason McCourty was solid across from Gilmore before getting into a rotation with JC Jackson, which despite his penalties, is a really good sign for Jackson that they’re getting him involved.  Kyle Van Noy has found his role and seems to be scratching the surface of being a star. Again, it’s about consistency. He seems to make one huge play every other game and when it becomes every game, this defense will have filled most of their holes.

I’d also love to see what Dietrich Wise could do if he was healthy and allowed to play a bunch. Seems like the coaching staff is holding out on him a bit, or have been forced to because he’s been playing hurt. Meanwhile, Derek Rivers appears to be gaining the staff’s confidence and could be due for a breakout “wow” play any week here.

Despite them getting killed, I continue to really like this defense when they’re all on. They just haven’t all be on for consistent stretches. At some point that’s either who they are or they’ll prove it’s just the usual early season cobwebs. But as we close in on November, the time is now to play like the lights out defense I still believe they can be.

And against this Bills offense, anything less than lights out is unacceptable.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. No Giveaways – The Bills will need the Patriots to be sloppy to make this a game. The turnovers this year have been overwhelmingly strange. Tipped/dropped balls, coming off weird injuries. I don’t think they’re a sloppy team, they’ve just been sloppy due to circumstances. But those excuses won’t last forever. They need a clean game where they don’t hand the ball over. Doing it against a better-than-you-think Bills defense is a good place to start.
2. Go Barner – Just as Sony Michel has garnered a place here the last few weeks, now Kenjon Barner gets on. Simply put, if Barner gets going like Michel was getting going, the Pats will roll. It will also make the Pats look slightly less dependant on Michel which would be a good thing given his injury history.
3. Explode – What if I told you… The Patriots have just 16 explosive pass plays this season, 28th in the league? Given the excitement around Josh Gordon you might find that a strange stat. Even moreso when you consider Chris Hogan led the league in yards-per-catch in 2016 and is now back in that non-Edelman-esque role. Some big plays out of those two would be just what the offense needs.
4. Rivers-Wise-Clayborn-Butler – This foursome really holds the keys to how good the Pats defense can be. We know Flowers will be disruptive but one guy is not enough, you need the rest of the front four, especially on third downs where the Pats have been bad. These are the guys that need to step up because if they don’t, even Derek Anderson will make plays.
5. Win – I hate to say it this week because this is one game where winning almost will not be enough. Not for me and definitely not for the sports takez army. Ultimately a win is a win, and who knows, if the Pats offense is flat, turns the ball over and can’t get going against the Bills defense it might just be enough to keep this one under 40 total points. And that would only throw gas on the flames of panic despite the Pats sitting at 6-2. Still though, a win is a win. At least that’s what I keep telling myself in these gameplan articles that go back four years now.

Prediction – Patriots 35, Bills 3