Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Just when it felt like the 2017 Patriots had turned a corner and gotten their season on track, they lost their defensive leader Dont’a Hightower for the season to a torn pec. Hightower was one of the walking wounded headed into the season and any hopes that he could somehow grind it out, through knee, shoulder and this pec injury were impossible.

As we should all realize by now the Patriots aren’t doomed by this injury. It’s a huge blow, but they’re as well coached a football team as there’s ever been in history and they’ll find a way to still play some pretty good defense. It will be harder on them all, and the team’s odds of winning another Super Bowl went down again, just like they did when Julian Edelman was lost, but they’ll keep fighting down to the last snap.

So now here come the San Diego Los Angeles Chargers (of Orange County?), a team the Patriots have mostly had their way with over the years. In my time in Los Angeles I saw plenty of the games — the 2006 AFCDG, the 2010 and 2014 wins, not to mention all the times here in Foxboro that the Pats handled Phillip Rivers et al, like 2007, the 2007 AFCCG, and 2011.

This is a good and underrated Chargers team, that is far better than their 3-4 record might indicate. They’ve won three in a row and three of their losses were by seven points combined. They’ve got all the necessary elements to beat the Patriots, good pass rushers, a diverse running back and a quarterback who won’t be intimidated despite only beating the Matt Cassel Pats in 2008 (I was at that one too).

This won’t be an easy game, and you wonder how the defense will respond without Hightower. What the Pats need to do to get the job done, and move to 6-2 as they head into the bye week is here in the gameplan.

 

Offensive Gameplan

The two key guys on the Chargers’ defense are Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. They’ve combined for 16 sacks and must be accounted for on every play. But really it’s usually the interior pass rush guys who scare me the most against Tom Brady, at least that’s what we’ve come to expect over the years when it was the Scalpel offense that got the ball out quick. Edge rushers usually never have a chance to get to Brady.

However the offense has evolved a bit this year and won’t rely on the quick open receivers like they used to. So any deep shots to Brandin Cooks or Chris Hogan, or even Gronk up the seam, are going to come with more risk now.

What is imperative is keeping the offense on schedule and balanced with the rushing attack. We saw great balance last week between run and pass, which made for manageable down and distance on third downs. That must continue this week. Rex Burkhead should see more time in his second week back, Dion Lewis is really hitting his stride, while James White and Mike Gillislee are good matchup players in certain situations. I don’t really care how it all fits together, find who has the hot hand and let them do work on the Chargers defense.

What can’t happen is a sputtering ground game that sets up third-and-longs. That’s where Brady is going to get killed. Nine of Bosa/Ingram’s 16 sacks have come on third down. In losses to the Eagles and Chiefs, the Chargers gave up a combined 403 rushing yards.

Really, this is what we’ve been waiting forever for —  a potent ground game that could take the pressure off Brady to make magic happen every week through the air. He’s far more deadly and unstoppable when there’s a running game. It helps Brady, it helps the offensive line and it frustrates defenses and breaks their will. If the running backs can continue to deliver, the Patriots offense should be near unstoppable. Not in a 2007 fireworks kind of a way, just an overpowering, consistent way that will win games efficiently.

Most importantly, as we saw against the Falcons, the ground attack can close games out at the end.

Defensive Gameplan

Without Hightower and likely Malcom Brown as well, things are going to get much harder for this defense. I’ve always believed they could be a good defense, but I think the Falcons game was outlier good, especially when you remove arguably their two best players against the run. Melvin Gordon is a threat both on the ground and as a receiver and now that the Pats will have to replace Hightower by committee it’s a really tough task when an offense can be unpredictable.

It’s not like you can match personnel between power runs and passing attack. You pretty much just have to play them straight up. So what do you do? Yes David Harris is likely to see an uptick in playing time but him matched up on Gordon in pass coverage is scary. The Chargers should be well aware of how much an advantage these mismatches will give them.

That means Alan Branch and Lawrence Guy must dominate the middle of the line. And neither one of them can get hurt. Kyle Van Noy must continue his upward trend of great play. He’s the man in that front seven now who will be counted on to make big plays.

Stephon Gilmore should return in the secondary, and while I love what Johnson Bademosi has shown, I expect Gilmore will be back in there starting. Still, I think Bademosi should continue to see defensive snaps, likely as the third outside corner. He’s more physical than Gilmore and that counts for a lot, but Gilmore is a good fit against Keenan Allen. Allen has 30 third down targets for the Chargers, the next closest receiver has just seven. So if Gilmore does man him up, we’ll get a really good idea of how well the cornerback plays in his return after missing a game with a concussion.

I loved the energy and overall team defense the Patriots played with last week. Everyone was on the same page and that was exciting to see. But they just got hit with some major hurdles to overcome and it will be a group effort. While last week was a feel-good moment for the defense, this week should be far more telling of who this defense is, and who they will be without Dont’a Hightower.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Run, Run, Run — Yes, this is simply the biggest key for the Patriots 2017. We know where they’re a bit a weak — Solder’s having a down year and they’re better suited to pass the ball downfield. The way to balance both these weaknesses is to lean on the running game, and they sure have the running backs to do it. Hell, I’d even be fine with a game where Brady doesn’t do much at all if all four backs have great games at the same time. Save Brady. Save the OL. Pound the rock.
2. Defense Come Together — Let’s try to make the loss of Hightower a rallying point. On paper it’s easy to say the Patriots are doomed, but there’s more than half a season to play and the true identity of this defense is still very much up in the air. This week will be the first step toward what that identity will be. The secondary must lead the way, but the young players up front must continue to progress. If all that happens, they’ll be fine, more than capable of keeping games close enough for the potent offense to win them.
3. Fundamental Defense — This is where it all starts. We saw it last week. Play within the defense. Don’t try to be Dont’a Hightower. Do your job and all that stuff. If everyone just plays their part, tackles well and doesn’t get beat deep, the good defense part of it will come.
4. Weather the Storm — The Chargers have talented players on both sides of the ball. They’re going to make plays so another 60 minute game will be critical, and likely more difficult that it was against the Falcons, as crazy as that might’ve sounded a week ago. What cannot happen is a regression to the disjointed ways of September and they certainly can’t get in their own heads and doubt themselves. This game is all about mental toughness.
5. Win — This has been a tumultuous start to a season, at least as bad as 2013 was. If the Pats can get to the bye at 6-2 they’ll have a chance to regroup and get healthy. They need those two things more than ever right now. 5-3 wouldn’t be disastrous, but it would lead to some doubt as to the direction of this team and their chances of making a Super Bowl run. This would be a huge conference win and one that would be very helpful down the road when it comes to playoff seedings. It feels like Rivers is finally due for a win over Brady, but they cannot let that happen. Not now.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Chargers 28