Games like the Patriots vs. the Packers is why I write all these blogs. If you can’t just sit back and enjoy a great football matchup then I’m not sure what you’re doing. There’s not the underlying sense of stress that comes before a playoff game. I learned a long time ago if you only get excited for those, most seasons are going to be pretty depressing.
With no more Brady-Manning, we’re left with Brady vs. the mostly new guard, save a few select holdovers from the early days, the Roethlisbergers, the Flaccos and the Rivers’. Brady and NFC counterpart Aaron Rodgers have met but once, back in 2014 with Rodgers and the Packers beating the Patriots in what would be their last meaningful loss of the season. That just goes to show that even Sunday Night’s loser can take solace that losses can be the spark to a Super Bowl title.
As for the great Brady vs. Rodgers debate that has raged so fiercely this week, I can take appreciation in both quarterbacks. I do think it can largely be boiled down to the same Brady-Manning argument. Manning was bred to be a quarterback. Rodgers was bred to be a super athlete. Tom Brady didn’t have either of their natural gifts. Super Bowls are also largely team-dependant, but when you look at the overall body of their work, I’m a Brady guy through and through, and if that includes a little bit of Bill Belichick mixed in too I don’t really give a shit.
Brady has shown historic resilience when it all comes down to him. Those numerous times simply seal it for me, regardless how big a part Belichick played in the game-planning, team-building, etc. Brady has done it over and over with different guys everywhere.
Is Rodgers a better athlete? In a test tube, is he the guy you’d create? For sure. And I love watching him do what he does just like I enjoyed Peyton playing whenever it wasn’t against the Patriots.
But give me Tom Brady and his unstoppable quest from the doughy middle school kid to the GOAT every. single. time.
As for the teams on the field who will actually play against Brady and Rodgers and will decide the game? Here’s that gameplan!
Offensive Gameplan
The Packers have had success using a more blitz-happy attack under old friend Mike Pettine. The defensive coordinator is no stranger to drawing up deceptive pressure packages for Tom Brady. But Brady tends to eat the blitzes alive so disguise will be the key for the defensive front. Rex started rushing only three a lot against Brady and Pettine will surely mix some of that in.
That means things in this game will start and end with how well the offensive line is in sync, even blocking just a few rushers. With Trent Brown, Marcus Cannon and Shaq Mason all questionable it’s possible the Pats will be in a very tough spot. Producing with a Croston-Karras-Waddle trio filling in could be very dicey. Pass blocking would be downright terrifying. If they’re out of sync and the Packers are getting pressure with three random pass rushers, lights out.
The secret to beating the Rex Ryan/Pettine defenses? Don’t let it get to third-and-long with a productive run game. If this Patriots team struggles to run with…gulp… just Kenyon Barner and James White, third downs will be even harder. If that happens it will be up to the pass blockers to communicate and give Brady as much time as possible. That is not the best route to success.
But let’s face it, the Pats are going to win or lose this game with James White, Julian Edelman and yes, Rob Gronkowski. Even if the run game stalls and the offensive line can’t decode the pass rush, that group is too good to be held down an entire game. Throw in a little Josh Gordon magic and the Pats should score at least some points, though the early performance against the Bills isn’t reassuring. They’re better than that, especially at home.
Obviously they need Michel back, but for now, if this one’s just a shootout so be it. Go out there and sling it, Tommy.
Defensive Gameplan
No one really seemed to care that the Pats held the inept Bills offense to just six points, they were expected to do that. So now they get a really hard challenge, but not one that truly plays into their weaknesses. Despite his playmaking skills with his feet, Rodgers is still largely a traditional passer and the Pats always seem to do a lot better with those.
Getting Dont’a Hightower back would be great but at this point, it is what it is. They’re getting by because Kyle Van Noy is on fire and John Simon has been serviceable in spot duty last week. This is going to be a passing game so the key isn’t necessarily Hightower as much as you’d love to have him back.
Trey Flowers has also been playing like a star and this might be the game he reached true superstar status. That probably should’ve happened after Super Bowl 51, but Flowers could earn himself a lot of money with a big performance on this kind of stage.
Can Adrian Clayborn, Adam Butler and Dietrich Wise get after Rodgers? How about Derek Rivers, who has carved out a pass rusher role? If they can contain, collapse on and finish Rodgers they better do it early and often.
The secondary has had their ups and downs this year, but I think the veterans will rise in the spotlight. Stephon Gilmore could see plenty of Davante Adams who already has 52 catches and six touchdowns. He’s why you spend the money the Pats spent on Gilmore. If Adams has a quiet night things will be much easier on the rest of the defense.
This is a great “see what we got” game for the defense. I like the trajectory their on. They’ve been getting a lot of takeaways. They just need to get off the field on third down, and that’s especially true in this game.
Five Points of Emphasis
- Offensive Pace – The evolution to the no-huddle offense of 2011/2012 was largely in response to playing Rex Ryan/Mike Pettine defenses. Those defenses were killed by pace. They couldn’t hide their blitzes. They got tired quick and on their heels. When the Pats found a crack in those defenses it opened a deluge. They need to press the Packers defense and set the pace of the game.
- Flowers Man – I think this is the Trey Flowers game. He was all over the place against the Bills. And if the Pats are going to win this one he’ll need to be all over the place again.
- Offensive Line – Not sure who’s going to be out there but they’re truly where this game is won or lost. Maybe that’s always the case but if they’re off the offense could really look un-Patriot bad. Remember the 2009 and 2010 losses to the Jets? Brady was confused early on and never found his stride.
- Kick and Punt – I wrote this week how the Patriots kickoff and punt teams were ranking near the bottom of the leauge. That’s a lot of hidden yardage that they’re going to need against a quarterback like Rodgers.
- Win – Not a critical game in terms of being 6-2 and the Packers in the NFC but it would sure be nice to beat a good team. It would be reassuring to everyone, especially doing it without some key pieces.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Packers 26
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