Patriots Gamplan: Week 3 at Detroit Lions

It’s been a long week in Patriots Nation. The team got blasted on the field. Another book came out and drudged up more things from 2017, a recurring occurrence now. Even the low-risk Josh Gordon acquisition was met with controversy. Sometimes it can be exhausting being an even-keeled Patriots fan man blogger and this was one of those exhausting weeks. But with a win in Detroit over Matt Patricia the Pats can get everything back on track and shut up a lot of the noise once again.

Despite a first-game shitshow, the Lions are going to put up a good fight. Like the Patriots, they’ve shown some holes but they’ve also had their share of nice plays, especially against the 49ers in a tight three-point loss.

While I know we will see a far better Patriots squad I also don’t expect it to be perfect. There’s still too much to work through, especially dealing with potential absences of Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung. Under any circumstances, a Pats defense without those two would be severely affected and that could be even more exacerbated if everyone plays as sloppy as they did in Jacksonville.

What do they have to do to get the all-important win and return home to face the Dolphins? Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

With Darius Slay out, the Lions lose their best cornerback and the Pats get a huge break. This feels like it should translate to big bounce-back games for Chris Hogan, who played better than I initially thought, and Phillip Dorsett who is starting to grow on me, leading the team with 12 catches.

For all those salivating to see Josh Gordon out there, I think he’ll be behind Cordarrelle Patterson, but definitely with just a couple plays tailored to him to get him involved (assuming he’s even healthy enough to play). I think being new to the team and being injured means we’ll likely have to wait a bit until we get a glimpse of Gordon in a game.

Really, there just isn’t much to do, the depth at receiver, tackle and wide receiver has already been emptied. The only choice is the same guys who evaporated against the Jags have to play far better in Detroit. The ground game cannot continue to sputter like this, putting Brady in third and longs, further stressing the lack of receiving threats. Michel and Burkhead have to make plays and not just leave it all up to James White to bail them out of trouble.

The good news is the Lions are 32nd in rushing yards allowed and that’s the perfect target to focus on with James Develin leading the way. Still Patricia knows this offense as well as anyone. He’ll have a good plan, but will his players execute it?

The Lions defense is young and might have starry eyes going against Brady. Usually, that means Brady tears their hearts out, especially coming off such a disappointing loss.

Defensive Gameplan

The Lions attack is a mix of old pal LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon Johnson on early downs and Theo Riddick in passing situations. Golden Tate is the more favored target of Matthew Stafford, but Kenny Golladay has more yards on two fewer catches.  Marvin Jones has had a slow start but is still dangerous. Their three tight ends have combined for just three catches.

Let’s assume Chung and Flowers are out (UGH). That means McCourty and Harmon will be the two safeties and neither excel near the line of scrimmage. Re-acquired Cyrus Jones was taking snaps as a safety in practice, perhaps the best bet is to play a more traditional defense with McCourty and Harmon playing back to their strengths and using Jones in the box in multi-DB sets.

I’d put Rowe back in there and let him work it out with Gilmore. Same thing with Jonathan Jones. But I’d have JC Jackson ready to go.

Without Flowers, the pass rush fell completely apart last week after looking so dynamic in the first game. Expect Wise and Davis to be the base ends, with Derek Rivers making his debut rotationally both on base and as a designated pass rusher with Adam Butler and Adrian Clayborn.

Gilmore should take Tate out of the game, meaning that this game will be won or lost with how well Rowe, Jones, et al cover Golladay and Marvin Jones. Luckily the tight ends are not a huge threat because those are Chung’s thing. The Pats can focus their corners on winning at WR2 and WR3. The pass rush must be more disruptive because if given time Stafford will find Golladay and Jones for explosive plays.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. My Michel – This could be the perfect storm for a Sony Michel break out game, if he’s got it in him which I’m still not fully convinced he does. The offense can’t be forced to lean on the passing game crutch. They need a game from either Michel or Burkhead where they’re effective in the first half and help control the game. Doesn’t need to be a 20-plus carry, 100-plus yardage effort but they must convert short yardage and keep them out of third-and-longs.
2. Reset D-Mac – I’d love to see them back off using McCourty in man coverage close to the line, let him do what he does best, manage the back end. I’d rather use Rowe on tight ends like Luke Willson and just tell 32 and 21 to prevent big plays.
3. Hogan & Dorsett – My Pats spidey sense is usually wrong but this week it tells me Hogan and Dorsett go off. Again, it’s usually wrong but I had to get it down in writing this time to maybe be right for once.
4. Let the Rivers Run (after the quarterback) – Always exciting to see a young defensive end premiere and we’ve waited a long time to see Rivers. I’d expect just a rotational sprinkling of him but he showed some real promise this summer before Keionta Davis made him obsolete.
5. Win – This one will have a heavy style points magnifying glass on it, as Patriots games always do after losses. Usually, they’ve responded but this one won’t be easy. The 2018 Pats are still very much on the proving grounds, but they always seem to keep getting better whether by small steps or giants leaps. This feels like a small steps week.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Lions 21