Patriots Gamplan: Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

These are the kinds of regular season games that you live for. The 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs come to Foxboro having beaten the Patriots convincingly last season, giving the Pats an uncommon beatdown for the second time in four seasons.

Now the Chiefs might be even better, with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs offense has been near-unstoppable this season. Simply put, no one has stopped this offense yet. It’s been a while, but we’ve seen a similar narrative before, mostly around the 2003-2009 Colts with Peyton Manning. Many times the Colts came into Foxboro with the football world wondering how an often undermanned Patriots defense could ever stop what looked like an unstoppable offense.

Time and again, Belichick’s Patriots executed the perfect gameplans and stopped the unstoppable. But that was a generation ago, when defenses had more of a chance. Can the Patriots pull another magical defensive victory for their legend?

Here’s the gameplan…

Offensive Gameplan

The Patriots feel like they’re just scratching the surface of their potential. In the short-week glimpse we got of the offense with Julian Edelman and the burgeoning Josh Gordan and Sony Michel, the Patriots were dripping with potential. Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan (a potential absence after missing practice this week) looked far less overwhelmed and James White showed why he’s a superstar when he’s perfectly used.

The Chiefs’ 28th-ranked DVOA defense is tantalizing but I’ve seen others fall into this trap when facing the Patriots. Yards don’t matter a lot and the Chiefs have overwhelmingly been playing with a lead this season. That really skews stats, even ones based on efficiency like Football Outsiders.

The injury situation at safety for the Chiefs is dire, forcing them to practice a wide receiver out of position this week. But you have to respect their front, led by Dee Ford, Justin Houston and Allen Bailey.

The Patriots offense, like the Chiefs, will threaten the defense every way possible. But the key guy is once again Michel. Success with him on the ground means the rest of the offense can flourish. If Michel doesn’t get going the Patriots’ offense will be sporadic and not enough to keep pace with what the Chiefs offense is capable of.

Once Michel is going, the door will be open to Edelman, Gronk, Gordon and White to make impact plays while Dorsett and Hogan chip in with timely catches.

Defensive Gameplan

I couldn’t help but dive into the defensive aspect of this game ahead of the gameplan. It’s just such an impressive offense to watch and I’m always thrilled for the league when a new quarterback like Mahomes bursts onto the scene. Unfortunately this week we have to deal with Mahomes and this always-potent Chiefs offense.

It’s easy to get overwhelmed thinking about how to stop this offense and that’s why the best thing to do is focus on two simple pieces — stopping Kareem Hunt from running and taking away Travis Kelce in the passing game. If Mahomes can beat the Patriots with just Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Spencer Ware so be it, just don’t let him beat us with those two guys.

Of course, it’s not so simple as put your heavy package out there on first down and stop the run. The Chiefs are going to come out throwing. That’s what I would do, but at some point they’ll need Hunt to keep the clock running and that’s when the Pats must be ready to clamp down, even if it means Dont’a Hightower is on the sideline. Kelce should have at least Patrick Chung on him every single down. If you take those two elements away from Mahomes, things get much harder for him.

There’s just too much speed on this team across the board to play too much man defense. The Pats match up better than most teams, but I think mixing zone defenses more into the playcalling would make sense. Keeping Mahomes on his toes is a key.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Don’t Lose to Kelce & Hunt – I look at this game as finding how to one or two extra possessions and that starts with putting as much on Mahomes as possible. If he’s in third-and-longs with Kelce double-teamed it’s a great place for the Patriots, however…
2. Third Down – If there’s one thing that my first dive into the stats revealed this week, it’s that the Patriots must get better on third down on both sides of the ball.
3. Michel – I can’t believe the Pats have just two active running backs on the roster, it feels like a recipe for disaster. Michel is the key to the whole offense, just as Dion Lewis was last year. If he and the ground game struggle the Patriots ascending offense will start looking a lot more mortal.
4. Survive the Blitzkreig – The Chiefs are going to score, maybe even on explosive plays but the Pats must not lose their resolve. This is very much a key feature of every Belichick team, outside 2009, so I barely even need to emphasize this, but it’s more for us the fans. Don’t jump to universal feelings that our defense is hopeless if they get lit up. Just worry about…
5. Win – This isn’t a must win but it sure will tell us a lot about the compete level of these Patriots. This is as great a challenge as the Patriots have faced in recent memory and it’s what makes being a football fan so fun at this point, the season isn’t over Monday morning no matter what.

Prediction: Patriots 42, Chiefs 38