Patriots Internal Free Agents: Defense Edition

Coming off their fifth Super Bowl victory, the New England Patriots are in tremendous shape cap-wise, as they have right around 62 million dollars in cap space heading into the 2017 offseason. This cap room gives the Patriots incredible financial flexibility, and lets Bill Belichick, Nick Caserio, and co be as aggressive as they please in free agency. Of course, the Patriots do have several important free agents of their own that need new contracts, with many of them falling on the defensive side of the ball, including essential pieces in Dont’a Hightower and Malcolm Butler (although Butler is a restricted free agent), so lets take a look at the Patriots defensive free agents.

Dont’a Hightower 

• Age: 26
• Projected contract (via Spotrac): 4 years, 40 million
• Other notable free agent inside linebackers: Lawrence Timmons, Malcolm Smith, D’Qwell Jackson

In nearly every Patriot fans mind, locking up defensive captain Dont’a Hightower is the Patriots #1 priority entering free agency, and if Jeff Howe is correct, it appears the Patriots organization feels the same way. Yesterday, Howe, on 98.5 the Sports Hub, said, “[The Patriots] definitely want to keep [Hightower]. He is their priority”. That is a good sign, but this situation does not appear to be one in which Hightower would be willing to take a home-town discount to remain in New England. Howe went on to say, “Hightower wants to stay, but the Patriots aren’t going to be able to really skimp on his contract. They’re going to have to pay him top dollar.”

Hightower will surely be looking for a contract that exceeds the one former teammate Jamie Collins signed with Cleveland in January. The Brown inked Collins to a four year, 50 million dollar deal, with 26.4 million of that guaranteed, so it seems like any contract discussion with Hightower will probably begin at that figure and work its way up. I see Hightower signing a contract in the range of 4-5 years for 60 or so million dollars, with at least 30 million of that guaranteed; those amounts are nearly exactly the same as the ones in the contract Luke Kuechly, the NFL’s premier inside linebacker, signed prior to the 2015 season for 5 years, 62 million, and 35 million guaranteed. Luckily, the Patriots have the financial flexibility to make this sort of contract work without compromising the rest of the roster, so I would be really surprised if Belichick let Hightower leave New England.

Similar to the contract discussions with Devin McCourty two offseason’s ago, I think Hightower is the type of player Belichick and the Patriots will do whatever it takes to keep in a Patriot uniform, whether it be by a long-term extension or via the franchise tag, which would cost the Patriots about 15 million to retain Hightower and would allow the two sides another year to negotiate a new contract.

Malcolm Butler (RFA)

• Age: 26
• Projected contract (via Spotrac): 4 years, 52 million
• Other notable free agent corners: A.J. Bouye, Stephon Gilmore, Sam Shields, Trumaine Johnson, teammate Logan Ryan

Butler is only a restricted free agent, meaning the Patriots have the ability to match any contract offer given to him. The Patriots can place a tender, whether it be a first or second round tender, on Butler, which means that if another team signed Butler to a qualifying offer the Patriots declined to match, the Patriots would receive that teams first or second round pick in return. If Butler were to sign the first round tender given to him by New England, it would essentially become a one-year contract that would pay Butler 3.6 million, a very affordable price for a player of Butler caliber. Look for the Patriots to slap Butler with a first round tender if the two sides don’t come to terms on an extension, because it would all but guarantee he would remain in New England for 2017. It’s hard to imagine any team giving Butler enough money for the Patriots to not match the offer, seeing as they’d not only be putting a burden on their salary cap, but also would forfeit their first round pick.

However, I am sure the Patriots will at least try to lock up Butler long-term, and this offseason is the perfect time to do it. If the Patriots value Butler as the shut-down corner that he is, an extension would probably have to come close to the contract Janoris Jenkins received from the Giants this past offseason. Jenkins signed a five year deal with New York that was worth 62.5 million, with 28.8 of that guaranteed. To me, that type of contract is Butler’s financial ceiling, and at this point, it seems rather far-fetched that Belichick would give Butler that much money. A deal somewhere in the 9-10 million a year range seems more realistic. I doubt Butler would reject that sort of contract from the team that gave him the chance to grow into one of the best young corners in the NFL, especially having only made 1.5 million dollars over his first three NFL seasons.

Logan Ryan

• Age: 26
• Projected contract (via Spotrac): 5 years, 72 million
• Other notable free agent corners: A.J. Bouye, Stephon Gilmore, Sam Shields, Trumaine Johnson

Ryan is in the same territory as Martellus Bennett, in the sense that he is a very valuable player to the Patriots but will most likely demand a contract far higher than the Patriots would consider paying him. With the performances he put together down the stretch, Ryan played his way out of New England and into a giant contract in free agency. I just can’t see the Patriots offering Ryan a contract north of 10 million a year, if that, and the odds of Ryan signing a contract at that level at this point in his career are pretty low. Some team will be desperate enough for secondary help to toss Ryan a deal worth 12-13 million a year, which would pay Ryan like one of the premier corners in the game (a contract worth 13.5 million a year would place him in the  top 5 of highest paid corners). While Ryan is certainly a good player, Belichick and co would certainly be fine taking the third/fourth round compensation pick that will come their way next season if/when Ryan signs a monstrous contract with another team.

Jabaal Sheard

• Age: 27
• Projected contract (via Spotrac): 5 years, 44 million
• Other notable free agent defensive ends: Calais Campbell, Jason Pierre-Paul, Mario Addison

Sheard is another free agent that will most likely be priced out of New England. While Sheard did perform admirably after being a healthy scratch Week 11 against San Francisco, he failed to live up to the lofty expectations placed on him to become the Patriots next premier pass rusher when Chandler Jones was traded to Arizona. It was Trey Flowers, not Sheard, who stepped into the role left vacant after the Jones trade, and while Sheard was a solid rotational piece in the Patriots defensive line, he is probably going to command starter money on the open market, a price tag the Patriots will certainly balk at. Just like Ryan, I think the Patriots will be totally fine collecting another compensation pick by allowing Sheard to leave.

Duron Harmon

• Age: 26
• Other notable free agent strong safeties: Tony Jefferson

Harmon is yet another piece that would be great to have return, but will most likely receive a contract that is greater than what New England is willing to pay. Harmon is a very valuable piece that allows the Patriots tremendous versatility on the back end of their defense, but with Patrick Chung signed through 2018 and Devin McCourty under contract until 2019, the Patriots have great top end talent at the safety position that allows them to not overpay to keep Harmon. Currently, Chung gets about 2.7 million per year, so I doubt the Patriots would give Harmon (who played just 49% of snaps in 2016 compared to Chung’s 97%) more money than that. If Harmon were to accept a contract under that 2.7 million per year average, the Patriots would probably love to have him back, but this is Harmon’s chance to become a starter in the NFL and I don’t think he will pass it up to take a pay cut to remain in Foxborough.

Chris Long

• Age: 31
• Other notable free agent defensive ends: Calais Campbell, Jason Pierre-Paul, Mario Addison

What will happen with Long is almost impossible to predict. The only thing known for certain is that he is not going to retire, but where he ends up is anyone’s guess. The Patriots would probably like to him back, but only on a team-friendly contract, and nothing more than a two-year deal. If Sheard were to leave for greener pastures, I think resigning Long becomes more important, especially when looking at the defensive end depth chart without Sheard. Losing both Long and Sheard would leave just Trey Flowers, Rob Ninkovich, and Geneo Grissom as the only defensive ends on the roster. Because of this, the most probable scenario is Long resigning on a one to two year deal worth the same amount he originally signed in New England for (1.25 million). Long has already made over 87 million in his career, so he would appear to be amenable to a team-friendly contract, especially when considering his comments prior to the Super Bowl, in which he said he would have played his season for just five dollars.

Alan Branch

• Age: 32
• Other notable free agent defensive tackles: Kawann Short, Dontari Poe, Brandon Williams, Sylvester Williams

The 32 year-old Branch is the Patriots oldest free agent, but he showed no signs of aging throughout the 2016 season, and anchored the interior defensive line that helped New England’s defense finish with the third-fewest rushing yards allowed in the NFL. Branch led all Patriot defensive lineman in snaps in 2016, but it remains to be seen if he can keep that up as he gets older. The Patriots kept just three defensive tackles on the roster for the vast majority of the season, so if Branch were to put off retirement for a few more years, a return to New England is probably the most likely scenario, seeing as a player of his age won’t really command much on the open market. There is a possibility of another team snagging Branch on a short-term contract to provide insurance in the defensive interior, but I think the most likely landing spot for Branch is Foxborough.