As a rule I try not to jump into mock drafts or big name free agents as the offseason begins. The priority must start with the Patriots internal free agents because those holes would be best filled by players who have already been groomed in-house. Sometimes you hope that certain players make a leap otherwise you’re forced to dip into external free agency where you spend more for players you know less about.
But by now we know how the Pats operate — bargain free agents and mid-round draft picks. Don’t expect a monumental departure from that philosophy this season no matter how bad the defense looked in the Super Bowl.
Here are the current depth charts (not really in true depth-ranked order so don’t @ me!) and what the overall plan should be on both sides of the ball. Players likely to be cut have a strikethrough.
Offense
Holes — Left Tackle, Running Back
Strength — Quarterback, Wide Receiver
As I wrote initially, re-signing Solder must be priority one. There just isn’t another option at left tackle and Solder’s up and down play should prevent some team from offering him a crazy deal. But if Solder walks it could be scary. Plus both Cameron Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle are free agents. Neither are long term starter material, but both have been excellent filling in. Getting Marcus Cannon back is a boost, but there’s no sure thing after him.
There’s a similar hole at running back where Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are free agents, and Mike Gillislee could be a cap cut. So once again it feels like it’s the two James (White/Develin) and a blank slate. In retrospect the backfield might’ve been too crowded in 2017 and prevented anyone from truly breaking out and finding a rhythm, especially in the playoffs. I think the Patriots are still searching for what kind of early down identity they want from a running back. They turned away from LeGarrette Blount, refused to run Dion Lewis into the ground when it counted most and seem too enamored of James White.
With Tom Brady moving into his 40s the time is now to truly dedicate to a running game that can take some heat off of him. They won’t maximize Brady if he’s having to throw the ball 50-plus times against the best defenses. The philosophy of signing guys like Lewis, Burkhead and Gillislee will remain — productive guys who can’t quite find a role on other teams, but I’d prefer a focused effort this year to establish an identity and stick to it. (I want Lewis back but I’d bet we only get Burkhead).
After the receiving corps was decimated last season, the good news is that they’ve already got a great training camp roster at the position. The only key free agent, Danny Amendola, seems like a slam dunk re-sign at this point. He won’t want to go anywhere else. No other team will be willing to invest in him then manage his snaps to get him to the playoffs healthy. One more year of seeing Edelman and Amendola back together would give the offense a boost, though I think drafting a “quick-open” receiver is a priority.
The return of Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell alone would give the offense a huge boost.
Of course there’s some mystery about Gronk’s future and with Dwayne Allen a likely cut there will be work to do at tight end as well, but that seems like a yearly tradition by this point…finding a mate for Gronk to provide injury insurance and complimentary play.
Defense
Holes — Defensive End, Linebacker
Strength — Secondary, Tackle
Though Malcolm Butler is as good as gone, the Patriots have a deep and experienced secondary, along with some interesting young pieces that could push some of the veteran players. But even if the season started tomorrow, the Patriots’ safeties and corners are in okay shape. And after SB52 they should play with something to prove.
The work must be done on the front seven and with a new defensive coordinator it will be interesting to see how they evolve up front. By the end their scheme was a patchwork squad so who can say where they really wanted to take things in 2017? All I know is that this is a far cry from the young exciting front that took the field in Super Bowl 49 and the holes are at what I believe to be the most important parts of the defense.
The return of Derek Rivers and Harvey Langi should provide just the right kind of boost but there’s still a lot of work to be done. Shea McClellin is listed as a potential cap casualty but given the state of the linebacker corps I don’t know how you jettison someone like him, even if I’ve been leading the parade of the underwhelmed when it comes to his play.
By the end of 2017 the defense lacked strength on the edge, as evidenced by James Harrison coming in and playing almost every snap of the Super Bowl, and athleticism at the second level. Kyle Van Noy certainly had some standout moments and perhaps with a better surrounding cast he’ll be even better, but he’s not on Hightower’s level in terms of domination.
My priorities on defense would be to add a strong veteran edge player and a speedy middle linebacker. The Pats have always skewed toward size and strength and linebacker over speed and I wonder if that can continue in today’s NFL.
The Bend-Don’t-Break philosophy is a Belichick core tenet, but 2017 was one of the worst years of defense by the Patriots and something has to change. They were the second-worst in takeaways and they allowed more plays-per-drive than any other BB team. Injuries are partially an excuse but most of it was done by the Patriots own design. The front needs to be stronger and faster. Perhaps complacency after winning two Super Bowl set in. The veterans, especially on the back end, were far from a strength this season. Expect there to be a renewed focus this season.