The Patriots are back in the division this weekend as the Jets come to Foxboro riding high with a 4-1 record. Things are never dull with the Jets and this game is no exception despite the lower amounts of chatter without Rex Ryan involved.
It’s an especially exciting weekend for me as I’ll be making my yearly pilgrimage back home to Massachusetts to attend the game. I’ll also be visiting tailgates with some swag to give away, so if you’re going to be there (and you have free food/drinks) please drop me a line! The grand prize will be finding a set of Patriots-Jets fans there together and then giving them tickets to the rematch in New Jersey in December.
Without Rex Ryan I’m having a little trouble adjusting to the new Jets under Todd Bowles who sounds a lot more measured than Rex ever did. That scares me a bit, because often you could count on Rex’s Jets to psych themselves out or get too caught up in the Patriots mystique. Still, Rex’s Jets always played us hard and close and while Bowles’ defensive philosophies are similar, we’ll see if he can get the same kind of effort Rex always did.
This is the kind of game that the football season is all about. The Jets have a great defense that will test Brady like he hasn’t been tested before this season. And on the other side of the ball, they have enough balance to really make the Patriots defense prove how good they are. These are the matchups I blog for!
Here’s my gameplan!
Offensive Gameplan
There’s no denying the Jets have as talented a front four as you’ll find in the NFL, and their secondary, led by old pal Darrelle Revis, can play any kind of game. The Jets will bring pressure in this one, so Brady’s presnap reads are a huge key.
That said, if the Patriots are “on time” with their offense, the offensive line isn’t going to have to worry about prolonged blocking of the Jets’ front. The ball will be out in two seconds. But if the Jets are able to surprise Brady by taking his first read away and making him hold it an extra second or two, things could get dicey.
Personally I think the best gameplan for the Jets will be to load the field with defensive backs and use a rotating combination of Richardson, Williams and Wilkerson as the pass rushers, leaving Harrison in a reduced role. Dare the Patriots to run, but don’t allow short passes without punishment and sure tackling.
The key is making Brady’s protection hold up against just three rushers and forcing him to fit the ball into tight windows downfield. The big hope with this gameplan is stopping the run with a reduced number of bigs in the box.
Lots of questions this week about how the Jets will match their corners, but I think it will be mix and match depending on the down. Some are curious about Revis on Gronk, but I think that’s something the Jets will want to avoid. Forcing him to tackle Gronk is not going to be ideal. More likely is Revis on Edelman, as they’re very familiar with each other.
But the biggest problem for the Jets might be Dion Lewis. As we saw last week, Gronk and Edelman can be taken away, but the Jets don’t have a clear answer for Lewis, especially if the Pats spread them out, forcing Davis or Harris out into space to cover the shifty running back one-on-one. You might recall Danny Woodhead having some big games against the Jets for similar reasons.
The other two big keys are Amendola and LaFell (as signs are pointing to him being activated for his first game of the season). No one is talking about them, but they’ve both been clutch compliments to Gronk and Edelman. If Buster Skrine is out (which it looks like he will be) the Jets corner depth will take a hit and open up chances for Amendola especially.
But what it all boils down to is patience for the offense. The Jets will make some plays, but if Brady can extend plays in the pocket while the Jets are rushing three and dropping eight, he’ll make his share of throws. If they get him off balance early it could be a grind for the offense this week.
Defensive Gameplan
We’ve seen plenty of Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for a bunch of yards against a passive defense waiting for him to throw interceptions, which he always did.
Brandon Marshall has 37 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns already, but my primary concern is Chris Ivory and the running game. That’s why I believe it’s key that Dont’a Hightower plays this week. The dropoff in run defense with Freeny and Mayo is too severe and puts so much pressure on Collins.
If Sheard can’t go it certainly hurts as well, but that could open the door for Trey Flowers to make his debut. Pass rush isn’t the issue this week, it’s about stopping the run on early downs and forcing third-and-longs. That’s prime Fitzpatrick interception territory.
The size of Marshall and Eric Decker against our cornerbacks does concern me and it makes me wonder if we’ll once again use physical safety Patrick Chung in more of a cornerback role this week. Butler should go hard at Marshall and give him problems. Logan Ryan saw some of Decker in 2013, that experience should help.
The wild card is my boo Dominique Easley because the Jets haven’t had to deal with a Patriots defense that had an explosive defensive lineman like him before. Easley’s so disruptive and is just hitting his stride. He made a number of key plays last week in big situations and this is a chance for Easley to take it to the next level.
Most of all I just hope the Patriots coverages stay aggressive. For the most part they’ve been a man team again this year and I’d prefer to keep that going rather than sitting back in zone and giving Fitzpatrick the quick easy passes he thrives on.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Win First Down
The Jets offense is going to be severely limited if they’re not picking up yardage on the ground with Chris Ivory early. But if Ivory is ripping off five or six yards on first down they’ll start rolling. While this points to more Siliga/Branch inside to start, the progression of Easley, Brown and Hicks was showing up last week so there’s no need to get away from the interior rotation. The question might be if Ninkovich and Chandler Jones can hold up all day without Sheard to spell them a bit. If Sheard can’t go, getting Trey Flowers into his first game action might be a necessity and he could bring some excitement with his physical play. How soon we forget he was the best defensive rookie in the preseason.
2. Put The Game On Fitzpatrick
This of course is directly related to winning fist down but the other way to accomplish this is to get an early lead. The Jets offense is far more effective playing from in front. If they’re forced to throw the ball 40+ times chances are they’re going to lose. In a way it’s the same gameplan the Jets should try on Brady. Take away the quick throws, make him digest the defense and put the ball downfield. That’s not Fitzpatrick’s game so that’s the game we have to make him play.
3. Patience On Offense
The Jets defense is talented and is going to make plays, but what makes the Patriots so tough is how patient and relentless they are. It might take some time to lock in on what the Jets are doing. They might get to Brady a couple times. Maybe even force a turnover. But it’s always just a matter of time before the Pats offense starts clicking. While an early touchdown drive would be ideal to put pressure on the Jets offense, countering the Jets aggressiveness over the course of the game is a big key.
4. Don’t Forget to Run
The Jets have the best run defense in the league, so it might be tempting to just spread them out and let Brady go to work with the scalpel. But with the Jets likely to go with a defensive back-heavy gameplan, it’s important to keep handing the ball off to Blount and Lewis. Even quick screens on the perimeter serve the same purpose – keeping the Jets from dictating. Force them to adjust. And when the time is right, pick up the tempo and take away any attempts at complex blitz schemes they might want to employ.
5. Win
This is always my fifth key because it’s the only thing that really matters. This game is really important for the Patriots because if they don’t win now the odds are higher that the division will still be in doubt when they have to end the year with back-to-back road trips to the Jets and Dolphins to end the year. We want those games to be meaningless, but holding serve at home in the division is the number one goal heading into the season. The next two games will tell us a lot about the 2015 season, and putting down a worthy rival like the Jets would be a good way to silence the crowd saying the Patriots haven’t played anyone good yet.
