Patriots Positional Preview: Running Backs

Today we’re taking a look at the Patriots’ running back corps, one of the most intriguing positions on the roster.

With the departure of LeGarrette Blount, who set a team record with 18 rushing touchdowns, things will look a little different in 2017, but the approach should remain the same. The biggest question is of course, who takes those short yardage carries, especially on the goalline where 11 of Blount’s TDs came from just one yard out.

The favorite to be the early down/early game pounder is Mike Gillislee, a restricted free agent the Pats signed away from the Bills and whose one-cut, hard running style is a perfect fit for what the Pats need. But free agent Rex Burkhead, who saw just 13 carries in his first three seasons with the Bengals before getting his shot in 2016 and putting up 4.6 yards-per-attempt, has size and versatility to take some of those carries as well.

As Pro Football Talk pointed out, Gillislee and Burkhead are football analytics all-stars.

Analytics website FootballOutsiders.com ranked Gillislee as the most efficient running back in the NFL last year, and Burkhead as No. 2. Analytics website NumberFire also had Gillislee first and Burkhead second. Analyst Warren Sharp’s metrics had Gillislee first and Burkhead second in success rate, and Burkhead first and Gillislee second in the fewest “missed yards per attempt,” or how close they came to being successful on the plays that weren’t quite good enough to quality as successful.

No matter how the replacing of Blount shakes out, the Patriots have the entire spectrum covered at running back. James White put up an MVP-caliber performance in the Super Bowl, while Dion Lewis, now a full year removed from tearing his ACL, could return to the electric explosion he showed prominently in early 2015.

With battering ram James Devlin leading the way, and a couple young potential practice squad members, there’s nothing this group lacks.

Let’s take a closer look at each.

James White – Outside of Brady, no one had a more poetic season than White. Thought of as a passing-down-only back entering the season, it was White who carried the ball over the goalline in overtime of the Super Bowl, powering through multiple defenders to give the Patriots their fifth Lombardi. His 24 points in the big game (three TDs and a two-point conversion) were a final exclamation point on White’s outstanding season. He still platooned with Dion Lewis in passing situations, but emerged on the biggest stage, breaking the Super Bowl record for receptions in the process. White earned a rare running back extension in the offseason and will be looking to build on the 60 catches he had in 2016. There’s no doubt now, White is a building block on offense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzDGiHTIMCw

Dion Lewis – Lewis started the 2016 on the PUP list but made a big impact once he returned. His best game came in the AFC Divisional Round against the Texans where he had three touchdowns, including one on a kickoff return that busted the game open. Lewis lost a little of the shiftiness he had in his brief availability in 2015, seeing his yards-per-catch drop from 10.8 to 5.5, but he still had a handful of “wow” moments. A hamstring injury in the Super Bowl limited his availability down the stretch and that put a disappointing end to his season. Now that he’s a full year removed from his ACL injury and its corresponding complications, Lewis should have some more burst in his step in 2017 and that could make him a focal point in the Patriots’ offense. He’s entering the final year of his deal, so he should know what is at stake. With White’s breakout performance, Lewis will be a bit under the radar, but he’s used to that.

Rex Burkhead – Burkhead signed one of the more surprising free agent contracts this offseason, nabbing a one-year deal worth $3.5 million. After the team nickel and dimed LeGarrette Blount, it was an interesting move to give Burkhead, who has one career start and just 375 career rushing yards such a sizable contract. Burkhead’s versatility and ability to contribute on all four downs is why the Patriots liked him, but is he anything more than a fill-in running back, primary special teams guy? The money says he should be. We’ll see what his play on the field says. He’s a strong runner, can catch out of the backfield as well as return kicks. The Patriots will find a way to give him work, but no one knows for sure just how high his ceiling is.

Mike Gillislee –  For the second year in a row the Patriots plucked a quality restricted free agent from the Buffalo Bills. Gillislee is a hard one-cut runner who should perfectly replace LeGarrette Blount and probably end up being an upgrade. He averaged 5.7 yards-per-attempt and eight touchdowns for the Bills in 2016. Combined with Burkhead, the Patriots signed the top two most efficient running backs in the league according to Football Outsiders. Both should carve out prominent roles in the Patriots’ rotational backfield, with Gillislee especially adding something the offense has needed for a few seasons.

Brandon Bolden – Bolden re-signed for a sixth year in New England on a one-year deal, but there’s little question that Bolden is what he is — an outstanding special teams player with little upside as a running back. After getting 202 carries filling in at various points in his first four seasons, Bolden got just one carry in 2016. There’s no guarantee that he makes it out of camp this year, but depth players like him who are well-liked and solid on special teams are always critical.

DJ Foster – Foster saw action in three games as a rookie, picking up 24 yards on seven carries along with a 30 yard kickoff return. He’s a receiving back in the mold of White and Lewis so he still has an uphill battle to see time in 2017. But with both those players set to hit free agency in 2018, Foster could be groomed to succeed one or both of them.

LeShun Daniels Jr. – An undrafted rookie out of Iowa, Daniels is short on stature but thick as a bull. He’s a one-cut power back but is stuck behind a free agency road block in the form of Gillislee and Burkhead. An injury to one of those two could open the door for Daniels, who certainly has the power to pick up tough NFL yards. Otherwise he could spend a year on the practice squad and have a real chance to make the team in 2018.

James Develin – Develin re-signed with New England on a two-year deal this offseason, giving the Patriots the toughness that Bill Belichick loves from the big fullback. Develin’s value won’t show up on the stat sheet, but his ability as a lead block helped pave the way for LeGarrette Blount’s record-setting season and will continue to do so for the new-look backfield.

Glenn Gronkowski – Gronkowski spent his rookie year on and off the practice squad and was locked up to a future’s contract this offseason. He’ll compete with Develin in camp and give the team a second Gronk to keep things fun and light when they need to be.