Patriots Scouting Report: Super Bowl 52 vs. Eagles

I’ve spent the last few days taking a look at a bunch of Eagles games and, like last week watching the Jags, it’s been an enjoyable experience. I get so caught up trying to decipher the Pats game film each week of the regular season that I never get much of a chance to check out another team. Now with a couple weeks to prepare it was nice to not be under the gun and immerse myself in the other team in the Super Bowl.

It should be a fantastic matchiup which should make any bet on Superbowl LII an interesting one.

The games I focused on were primarily toward the end of the season, once Nick Foles took over for Carson Wentz, including a special focus on the two playoff games. Here’s a bunch of things that stood out to me and how I could see the Eagles matching up with the Pats.

— Let’s start on defense where the Eagles have a front four that runs eight deep. Yes, they’re led by Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, along with Timmy Jernigan and Vinny Curry as their top line. But they’re just as comfortable sticking Chris Long – Beau Allen – Derek Barnett in there, sometimes as a wholesale change in the middle of a drive, which can include Destiny Vaeao as well for a handful of snaps.

— Cox is the true beast in the middle and he could give Shaq Mason some real problems with his bull rush, something he struggled with against the Marcel Dareus, who is more stout than penetrator, last week. Winning this game starts with not letting Cox blow everything up, but he’s sure going to blow some things up.

— Graham will reduce inside for pass rush fronts with usually Long coming on. He’s an effective rusher but when he’s on the defensive left edge he can get sealed off. I’d expect the Pats to attack him with their run game, especially with Rob Gronkowski blocking down on him.

— Barnett is the wild card to me. The rookie first rounder who was taken 14th overall had five sacks this season and will play about half the snaps. He seems to be getting better with each passing game.

— Having such a deep group upfront should be invaluable in the Super Bowl, where endurance can truly be tested and defenses can struggle to get stops at the end. While I expect the Patriots to use some hurry up to prevent the kind of in-drive rotation the Eagles like, it’s impossible to attack their depth over the course of the game. I don’t think they have the overall speed of the Jags defense, but they have more power and power is more often the problem for the Patriots.

–Their primary linebackers are Nigel Bradham, Mychal Kendricks and Dannell Ellerbe. Ellerbem if healthy, will come off the field in nickel, leaving Bradham and Kendricks as the coverage linebackers. Both are pretty good, but again, I was more impressed with the speed of the Jags linebackers.

— The player who really does it all for them is safety Malcolm Jenkins, who essentially plays the Patrick Chung role for the Eagles. He’ll usually be in the box where he can cover running backs, tight ends or slot receivers and will even blitz. He has a great nose for the ball and plays with anticipation and recognition. He often blows up plays before they can develop. His fellow safety is Rodney McLeod who usually plays the deep safety role, though they will role him up on the line of scrimmage at times and send him after the quarterback. He had a key sack of Matt Ryan in the NFCDG.

— The three cornerbacks all have numbers ending in 1 — Ronald Darby (41) and Jalen Mills (31) are the starters and usually play on the defensive right and left respectively. Patrick Robinson is the slot corner and they prefer three safety dime packages with Corey Graham rather than four corners. They’ll mix their coverages, I saw a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3. The Giants went after Mills 21 times near the end of the season and you can expect to see the Pats target him as well. The corners are good, but again, the overall talent of the Jags secondary stood out more to me, outside of Jenkins.

— On offense you’ve got to start with Nick Foles who showed good poise in close games since he took over for Carson Wentz. He’s most comfortable in the shotgun, where he’ll often use play action draws to help keep defenses on their heels a bit. Prior to the playoffs I thought he was the weakest NFC quarterback but he sure hasn’t played like it, putting together a late drive against the Falcons and firing on all cylinders against the Vikings.

— Their best weapon is Alshon Jeffrey who at 6’3″, is a mismatch for all the Pats’ corners. His size makes him extremely hard to stick with out of his breaks and a lot of his damage comes off slants and contested routes where he can simply use his size to block out the corner. The Eagles are just like the Patriots in that if they find a play that works they’ll run it multiple times, and that’s especially true with Jeffrey. On third downs I think Eric Rowe might be a good matchup given his size.

— Nelson Agholor is a dynamic slot receiver and the Eagles have plenty of gadget plays for him, including fly sweeps with him taking the handoff from the wing. He also makes tough catches in the middle of the field. He’s the kind of receiver that Malcolm Butler usually does well against as he has similar frame and plays with fire. That always gets Butler going.

— Old friend Torrey Smith is the third receiver and always a dangerous deep threat though he’s not quite the same one-trick pony he was with the Ravens.

— Their leading receiver is tight end Zach Ertz who is a fluid route runner but not quite the blocker that Gronk is. The more the Patriots can force him to stay in and protect the better. Patrick Chung will have his hands full with Ertz, especially on third down where he is Foles’ most frequent target.

— At running back it’s primarily a rotation between LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi. Ajayi has been especially effective on draws out of the shotgun. He ripped off a bunch of effective runs against the Falcons on the Eagles’ most impressive drive of the game.

— The offensive line has bounced back from losing Jason Peters, with replacement Halapoulivaati Vaitai playing extremely well, and I’m glad I don’t have to memorize that name, Michael Hoomanawanui was tough enough for me.

— Prior to last week’s explosion against the Vikes I would’ve been licking my chops a little more about the Eagles offense. The Atlanta defense did a good job holding them to just 15 points. They’re going to make their plays, but I think the Pats can go toe to toe with them matchup-wise.

You have to respect any team that has overcome the significant injuries that the Eagles have. Losing your left tackle, middle linebacker, running back and starting quarterback would torpedo most teams. This kind of perseverance is what we know the Patriots for and it’s the signal of a well-coached team that has a system that works in place. Foles is experienced and like most quarterbacks against the Patriots in the Super Bowl I expect he’ll have some really impressive plays, especially early.