It was an ugly win, but a win nonetheless, and the Patriots now have a two game lead in the AFC East heading into their revenge game in Buffalo this Sunday. While the team is 6-1 and leading AFC overall, there is still room for improvement from a few noticeable areas, with the play of kicker Stephen Gostkowski near the top of that list.
So far in 2016, Gostkowski is tied for 24th in field goal accuracy, having made just 9 out of his 12 attempts. For comparison, three kickers are perfect so far in 2016: Justin Tucker, Greg Zuerlein, and our old friend Adam Vinatieri, who set the NFL record for consecutive field goals made at 43 yesterday (equaling his age), an astounding accomplishment for the 21-year pro. Six kickers have missed just one field goal, 10 have have missed two, nine (including Gostkowski) have missed three, and four have missed four or more.
Gostkowski’s career average is 86.9% (good for third all-time), which is a sharp contrast from his 75% average thus far this season. Last season, he hit 91.7% of his field goals, missed just three, was a first-team All-Pro and was named to the Pro Bowl for the third straight year. In 2014, his success rate was a career high 94.6% on field goals, missed just two, and setting his personal record for field goals made in one season with 38. In 2013, he hit 92.7% of his field goals, and missed just three. Gostkowski’s worst season of his career (not including his injury-shortened 2010 campaign that was cut short after just eight games) was his rookie season in 2006, in which he hit on just 76.9% of his field goals. While it is only a seven game sample size, Gostkowski’s 2016 season is on track to produce a career-low in field goal accuracy. Gostkowski is certainly not paid to perform like this (he received the second-most guaranteed money ever for a kicker in his newest contract), and a large faction of Patriot Nation is up in arms with the performance of their All-Pro kicker.
Despite his struggles, I would stress the need to exercise patience in Gostkowski’s case. As I mentioned, the man is the third-most accurate field goal kicker of all time, and was a first-team All-Pro last season. This is not some kicker with just one or two years of solid performance on the field; Gostkowski is the Patriot’s all-time points leader, and has shown time and time again that he can make the biggest of kicks when it matters most (according to Football Outsiders, he is the 6th clutchest kicker since 1989). And it is important to note that even the best kickers in the league can struggle. Justin Tucker, who ranks second all-time in field goal accuracy percentage, was lights-out in his first two years in the league (2012 and 2013). He hit on 90.9% of his field goals in 2012 and 92.7% of them in his Pro Bowl sophomore season. What stood out in particular for Tucker was his accuracy on kicks from 50 yards or more; he was 10-11 from 50 yards+ in his first two seasons, good for an absurd 90.9% accuracy rate.
However, in his next two seasons, Tucker hit on just 83.7% of his field goals, a noticeable drop-off from his 92.7% accuracy rate in 2013, and was just 8-19 on kicks from 50+, a success rate of only 42%. However, as the best kickers tend to do, Tucker has rebounded in 2016, and is 18-18 this year on field goals, including 4-4 on kicks from 50+.
But is there anything Gostkowski can do to get back to his elite ways like Tucker has done? Well, luckily, it seems as though there is. Chuck Zodda, who writes about punters and kickers for Inside the Pylon, had a tremendous piece last week dealing with Gostkowski’s struggles and the subtle differences between his mechanics last season opposed to this season. I highly recommend you take a look at it. Zodda, after comparing footage from Gostkowski’s career to that of this year, was able to see that Gostkowski’s kicking leg takes a longer path to the ball this season, and he extends his leg out at a angle farther away from this body then in previous years, when his leg remained tight to his body in its path to the ball. Shifting his swing plane from a very vertically-aligned motion to one that is slightly more flat, as Gostkowski has done so far this year, creates more torque for the kicker.
This extra amount of torque created by Gostkowski’s new motion has caused his balance to be thrown off as he finishes his kicks. In 2015, Gostkowski ended up balanced evenly over his landing foot after striking the ball, with his shoulders square to the desired target and his momentum heading towards the center of the uprights. This season, Gostkowski’s finish is far different, with extra torque created by his swing plane forcing his hips to over-rotate, causing his momentum to fall off to the right, the side that he has missed all three field goals and both extra points on this season. With Zodda’s outstanding research, we are able to see exactly what has caused Gostkowski’s struggles this season, and thus can deduce that his issues are more to do with mechanical issues than any mental issue.
To Gostkowski’s credit, he completely owned up to his mistakes, and instead of making excuses for his faulty play, he placed blame solely upon himself. And he did seem to improve on the last extra point of the game Sunday, appearing more balanced on his follow-through, with more of his momentum seeming to fall towards to the center of the uprights than usual this season. Hopefully Gostkowski is able to build on this small improvement, because there could be a time when a missed field goal or extra point costs the Patriots a game, but until that point, I would air on the side of patience and give the All-Pro time to return to his elite self.