Patriots Gameplan: AFCCG vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The conference championships are the best football games of the season. It’s a real football environment in front of a team’s real fans, and it’s often played in the rain and cold, at least here in New England. It’s hard to put the Patriots eleventh trip to this game in perspective. I certainly don’t take it for granted, even after going to the last five-straight of them.

It’s amazing that the Patriots and Steelers haven’t met since 2004’s AFC Championship, a game that had plenty of narratives in just the fourth season of Belichick and Brady. The Steelers had been the team to defeat the Pats and end their 21-game winning streak, and New England got a chance to avenge that loss and they did, in surprisingly easy fashion against rookie Ben Roethlisberger.

Now, 12 years later, they meet again to battle for a chance to play in Super Bowl 51. With Peyton Manning retired, there simply isn’t another opponent that connects to the original dynasty years quite like the Steelers do, at least in the AFC.

This will be an old school matchup in more ways than one. These are two physical teams, with good quarterbacks and a number of weapons that can score early and often.

Here’s the Patriots gameplan to get through the Steelers and raise the Lamar Hunt Trophy for the seventh time under Bill and Tom, ninth time overall. Wow, did I just write that? What a run this has been, and now it’s time to take it to the highest level of all time.

Offensive Gameplan

As I wrote in last week’s gameplan, there isn’t much secret about the Patriots’ offense anymore, but there’s a multitude of problems any of which could explode and finish off the Steelers in brutal fashion.

In my look back at recent games against Pittsburgh, I was struck how involved the running backs were. In the 2015 opener, Dion Lewis burst on to the scene with 20 touches. In 2016, the Pats ran the ball with Blount 24 times for 127 yards and two touchdowns, with a long of just seven yards. That’s the kind of dedication they’ve had to being balanced all season long, truly the unique defining trait of the 2016 offense.

Now, for the first time, the Patriots have both Lewis and Blount ready to roll, so we can guess what the means, a ground-and-pound heavy attack that will make life incredibly easier for Brady. As I wrote earlier this week, Brady’s struggles against the good defenses that make it to the AFC Championship can in large part be connected to the Patriots’ lack of a trusted running game.

Now, they have as good of a varied run game as they’ve had since Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk in 2004. Add in James White now and they might even be better. So that’s where this gameplan starts, and they’ll need to lean on it to help offset the loss of Steeler killer Rob Gronkowksi, who had eight touchdowns in five career games against them. Maybe Martellus Bennett will pick up some that slack.

Last week I thought they missed Malcolm Mitchell, who’s expected to play this week. Mitchell’s been catching that slant Brady missed Floyd on that resulted in an interception all year. With Mitchell back in the mix along with Chris Hogan to compliment and protect Julian Edelman, the Patriots passing game is hard to key on. This is such a departure from 2013-2015 when it was the Edelman and Gronk show, and if they didn’t have good games, the offense would be stifled.

Now, facing a Steelers secondary with two rookies, they should be able to go back and forth between making them tackle their running backs and making them cover their receivers. That kind of thing can wear a defense down because they can’t just sit back and play pass like defense’s were used to in recent seasons.

The Patriots’ balance is the key to the offense this week as it has been all season. Leaning on Blount and Lewis to open up the passing game is what will win the game.

 

Defensive Gameplan

As a defense guy this is the kind of game that gets me hyped. A worthy challenger that has been on an unstoppable pace, with two of the best weapons in the game. The old Patriots defense lived for games like this, so it’s only right that this defense should get a similar test to get to the Super Bowl.

For all the talk of “yeah but they haven’t played any good quarterbacks” it doesn’t matter who you’ve played, it matters how you play and I expect we’ll see another strong performance from a defense that was very much on point last week against the Texans. Defensive football is as much about how well you communicate, get into the correct position and tackle as it is the offense you’re playing. That’s what Do Your Job is all about. This Patriots defense has a great mix of experience — the secondary has been completely intact for the last two seasons — and physicality. Everything they need to play a solid defensive game that limits Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.

Really, it’s almost more about the other Steeler weapons. Belichick’s mantra is taking away what teams do best. They have their best run defense under Belichick. Unless they totally collapse, Bell should not be running wild. The secondary has seen Brown twice now, with Malcolm Butler competing well with the all-world receiver. Again, unless they totally collapse, Brown should not destroy them. If those two are limited Roethlisberger will be forced to look elsewhere and potentially try to make throws that aren’t there.

That leaves us with Eli Rogers, Jesse James and perhaps Ladarius Green, if he can play, as the guys the Steelers will win or lose with. Those matchups are critical for the Patriots. Logan Ryan on Rogers is particularly an interesting matchup.

The easiest place for the Patriots to put the hammer down will be in the red zone, where the Steelers have had significant struggles. From Rich Hill of PatsPulpit:

Since Pittsburgh’s 10th game, Roethlisberger has completed just 34.4% of his red zone passes, with a 2:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His passer rating of 25.0 is the worst of any quarterback in the entire league, and this includes a pair of games against the Cleveland Browns.

I believe red zone stats can be fickle but the Patriots had the 9th-best red zone defense in the league along with allowing the fewest points-per-game. This is where the game will be won or lost. Both teams will move the ball. Whoever finishes with touchdowns instead of field goals will prevail. And that’s why avoiding any long Antonio Brown scores is critical.

Make the Steelers earn every yard just like the Patriots always do.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Ball Security: Turnovers in the playoffs are everything. We already heard Belichick giving Dion Lewis some crap about hanging on to the ball this week in practice after his two fumbles against the Texans. Between those and Brady’s interceptions, they were the only thing that actually made the divisional game close. Coming off a three turnover game where they still won is a good spot though. They know that can’t happen again and that’s likely why it won’t. But again, turnovers are everything.

2. Ring Bell’s Bell: If Bell doesn’t get going (a near-impossible feat in recent weeks, I know) the Steelers offense will be in shambles. He’s such a unique runner it will be a total group effort, starting with guys like Alan Branch and Malcom Brown up front, then cleaned up by Dont’a Hightower and Elandon Roberts. But it’s more than stopping the run, it’s stopping the underneath passes to Bell that have killed the Pats often this season. If I was Pittsburgh that would be my attack in critical moments. The Pats must attack Bell on every down and make him earn every single yard. If they do that, they should win.

3. Trench Warfare: This is the AFC Championship against a hard-nosed team. It will ultimately be decided in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Patriots’ offensive line was pushed around at times by a very good Houston defense last week. They must bounce back. Once they get rolling with a nice balance of run and pass, they should get on track for the full game. The Steelers offensive line is massive and can meet the Patriots’ force. This won’t be a game for the faint of heart. It will be trench warfare.

4. 3600 Second Game – For those of you unfamiliar with math this is a 60-minute game broken down into seconds because this will be a game that requires every last second of effort. This Steelers team is too explosive to be easily put away. They’re always just one pass from a long strike that could re-take the lead. Offensively, the Pats have had their quiet drives frequently this year, ranking 13th in variance. They’ll need their best consistency for the entire game this week, all 3600 seconds of it.

5. Win & Advance to Super Bowl Number Seven: Wow, it’s hard to fathom going to seven Super Bowls. I won’t even try to fathom it until the game is over and the Patriots are winners. This game is just the right amount of scary while still feeling confident if the Patriots play a clean game they’ll win. But it certainly won’t be easy. It has all the makings of an epic game that will be one of the major footnotes in Belichick and Brady’s career. There is no tomorrow, it’s Super Bowl or season over. Brace yourselves.

 

Prediction: Patriots 28, Steelers 19