Fresh off being completely dominated in Miami against the Dolphins (what a weird sentence that is), the New England Patriots now turn their sights to their biggest test of the year: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The winner of Sunday’s game will almost assuredly have home field for the inevitable title game between these two teams (knock on wood). While the Steelers do boast the best record in the AFC, four out of their last five games have been decided by game-winning field goals in the final minute, coming against the 3-10 Colts, the 7-6 Rodgers-less Packers, the 5-8 Bengals, and the 7-6 Ravens. This team is good, for sure, but I don’t think they are nearly as good as their record and their stats suggests.
The Steelers offense has put up the 4th most yards in football and 2nd most pass yards in the NFL, just behind the Patriots in both stats. They possess the NFL’s rushing yards leader in Leveon Bell, but strangely rank just 23rd in the league in total rushing yards (Bell has accounted for 85% of their rushing yards). Bell leads the league in rushing because of volume, not efficiency; he is first in the NFL in attempts with 283 (shoutout Atlanta), but is just 21st in yards per carry (of rushers with at least 100 attempts). The Patriots locked down the Steelers daunting running game in the AFC Championship Game, but, as Steeler fans are ever so quick to mention, Bell played just 11 snaps in that game, and the now-retired DeAngelo Williams was tasked with leading the Steelers rushing attack, which only gained 54 yards on 20 carries, good for just 2.7 yards per carry.
The Steelers also possess the most dangerous receiving threat in the league in Antonio Brown, who leads the league in receiving yards, and has been downright absurd his last four games, racking up an average of 156 yards on 9.8 catches and 1.5 touchdowns. Brown has also had a good deal of success against the Patriots of late, averaging 7.6 catches and 105.3 yards in their past three matchups. Brown caught seven passes for 77 yards in the Championship Game, but when covered by Malcolm Butler, he had just two catches on four targets for 24 yards, with Butler making one pass break-up.
The somewhat-vaunted Pittsburgh defense has taken a hit in recent weeks, as they gave up 28 points to Brett Hundley and the Pack two weeks ago and allowed 413 yards to the NFL’s 6th worst yardage offense, Baltimore, this past Sunday. However, they still rank 6th in total yardage allowed, and are 7th in points per game allowed. They were dealt a massive blow in their Week 13 win in Cincinnati when they lost their signal caller, Ryan Shazier, to a nasty spinal injury, and they looked like a very different defense without Shazier anchoring the middle last Sunday, as they allowed 125 more yards and 29 more points against Baltimore this time around than in their previous matchup this year, when Shazier was healthy.
Yet no matter how good the Steelers defense is, I can’t see them slowing Brady much at all. In his career, Brady is 7-2 against Pittsburgh, completing 238 of his 342 attempts (70% completion rate) for 2,826 yards, 24 TD’s, just 3 picks, and an average of 314 yards per game. In the AFC Championship Game last year, he connected on 32 of his 42 attempts for 384 yards, three touchdowns, and a passer rating of 127.5. That iteration of the Pittsburgh defense was slightly worse than their 2017 counterparts, as they finished the 2016 season as the 12th best yardage defense, but it does not appear to matter how good Pittsburgh is – you can bet good money Brady will shred their zone any time he matches up with them.
Brady’s favorite target this past January was Chris Hogan, who dominated the Steelers all game long, catching nine of his game-leading 12 targets for 190 yards and two touchdowns. Five of his catches went for 20 or more yards, and he found wide open space in the Steelers secondary on numerous occasions. However, of the Patriots six wide receivers and tight ends that were active last January, only Hogan and Danny Amendola will be suiting up for this game. Of course, the Patriots offense has added Brandin Cooks, and will feature a healthy Rob Gronkowski this time around, which should help to offset the production lost by the injuries to Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, and Malcolm Mitchell, who combined to play 67% of the total snaps registered by Patriot pass catchers in the AFC title.
Taking all of this into consideration, I just can’t see Brady and the offense laying another dud in such an important game. The Patriots are 40-11 coming off a loss in the Brady-Belichick era, good for a .784 winning percentage, and if anything, I think the Patriots loss Monday night was perhaps the worst thing that could have happened to the Steelers. We’ll see if the Brady and the Patriots can continue their dominant ways against Pittsburgh in five days. Sunday cannot get here soon enough!
