The Patriots season climax came to a disappointing finish yesterday, as Tom Brady’s final drive ended up going
The loss was the second in a row for the Pats, capping off their season road record at 3-5, their first road losing record season since the dreaded 2009 season. This was also the second time this season that they dropped back to back road games, the first time coming in September.
Now the Pats are staring down the barrel of playing on wild card weekend, something that hasn’t happened since that same 2009 season.
There’s so much to unpack from this game. The only way to do it is to just start firing off some Posits.
— The penalties are what are haunting me the most. And not even the holding calls that ranged from correct to marginal, it was the five false start penalties, along with one illegal formation penalty. Those presnap penalties (was presnap trending on twitter yesterday?) just speak to something larger to me, that this offense is clearly not the well oiled machine we’d expect at this point in the season.
— It just goes back to overall inconsistency this year. Usually it’s home vs. away, or offense vs. defense, and both those were clearly on display again, but to go from the least penalized team in the league to having 14 penalties, the most since 2014, in the biggest game of the year is maddening.
— The drops were part of that too, with key ones coming from Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon. Those were drive killers and a big reason the Pats didn’t see the end zone again after the first drive, which came off a blown coverage. They were 3-10 on third downs offensively. They were 0-3 in the red zone. Those kind of numbers have been far too common this season and given the weaponry, just unacceptable.
— I can’t beat the drum any louder for how important the run game is to this offense and given the results it’s not surprising that Michel and Burkhead were barely a factor. Not to mention James White who was invisible with seven touches for 37 yards. Credit to the Steeler defense, they gave up some chunk plays but the Patriots offense was as shut down as we’ve seen this year. I know it’s not so simple as calling more running plays but I still think they’re at a crossroads with their offense and still leaning too much on the old for their identity. They were effective when they ran the ball.
— As I wrote last week, this isn’t an offense that can get by with Brady, Edelman
— Defensively there’s going to be plenty of takes that they did enough to win the game, which is true, but I still didn’t find this to be an impressive performance for them. A missed field goal and two interceptions really skewed the results because the Steelers mostly moved the ball at will. I’d feel different if they’d gotten a stop on the final drive to give Brady a chance to win with good field position but they allowed a 13-play, five-minute field goal drive when the offense needed them most.
— Aside from that Kyle Van Noy sack early in the game I can’t remember a single front seven defender making a play. They went heavy on the dime defense, reducing Elandon Roberts to just 8 snaps. The gameplan makes sense but Pittsburgh had no trouble running the ball on the five-man fronts and that kept the passing game just effective enough. Gilmore and Harmon made some good plays and JC Jackson (a bright spot this season) had one himself. But really outside of those three total
— I don’t want to skip to the offseason yet, but I think there are big changes coming on defense this year and I’m not sure who will be left standing outside of Gilmore and Van Noy.
— The team almost did enough to win and really, without the penalties they probably would’ve won, but the fact is that they played their most undisciplined game in their biggest game and that’s just so troubling. We can’t sweep it all under the rug and just assume the 2018 Pats will be a different team in the playoffs. They’ve lost five games for a reason. They have a losing road record for a reason. This isn’t the same team that went to three of the last four Super Bowls. A team that went almost two seasons without losing on the road. A team that earned the right to play at home throughout the playoffs. This isn’t that team. And it sure doesn’t feel like a team that can pull off something like beating the Ravens at home then the Texans and Chiefs on the road to get to the Super Bowl.
— What happened this year? This is mostly the team they picked in the offseason. There are no devastating injuries to point to. Heck, they even upgraded to Josh Gordon on offense, but for some reason this team has just not all come together. There are cracks all over. The kickoff team has been terrible. The run defense has been eaten alive. The offense has struggled finishing drives. It will be an interesting post mortem this offseason.
— A lot can still happen over the last two weeks. I’m guessing the Pats win two games and look very solid, luring us into a “maybe they can do it” headspace. I know that’s where most teams actually are happy to live, but not us. We’re used to being the favorite and expecting to be at least in the conference championship game, but at this moment I think any game home or away in the playoffs is a tossup.
The Texans could slip against the Eagles and then the Pats are right back in that second seed which looms larger than ever now. The fact that we’re even at this point in late December, on the outside of a bye looking in, is distressing. But that’s where these Patriots are and right now it’s hard not to group them in with disappointing teams from 2005 and 2009. We’ll see what their fate is but that seems destined to be similar to those seasons.
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I am looking at the plethora of good defensive players coming out in this year’s draft as the silver lining to these losses. They just don’t have the players with skill to compete at a high level. Shelton and Brown have been huge dissapointments and Hightower has become a marginal linebacker. They need to pay Flowers and hope they pick the right players in the draft. The team cant pay Gronk 10 million or so for what they are getting from him either. I would like to see a win or 2 in the playoffs but the prospect of a higher draft pick may be more enticing.
Great analysis! I think it’s very similar to 2005. Not so much 2009, as after the Patriots lost to New Orleans I really didn’t think they were good enough to win it all. At the same time, I also was thinking about the 2006 Colts and how they looked quite bad down the stretch, but they came alive when the playoffs started. A bit different as when Bob Sanders came back it sparked their defense, but I do think the Patriots have played a few great games this year, so the potential to make a run is there.
I was thinking 2005, too. 3 superbowls in 4 years is a lot of extra football, compile that with the way they lost, the sharks smelling blood in the water since the offseason, and it must be tiring. Too much to expect them to keep rolling and rolling. A lot to expect 41 yo QB to carry you game after game. They are a team built to run but haven’t bought into that identity. Get that going, make timely plays, and fix the run D and they maybe can string 4 in row in Jan/Feb and pull it off. Or we’ll look back like 2015 (without the injuries) where they let too many games slip away, lost their seeding and couldn’t pull out a road playoff victory.
I keep reading that there are few injuries but the problem is that they are tied for most players on IR. I believe that last years draft class is on IR. Put back five of the big playmakers and we are going to the Super Bowl, just like when they beat the Seahawks.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh ran the ball at will but the run stoppers didn’t play much. The Pats defense was to stop the pass, but the running backs were five yards past the los before contact.
The other good news is that the Pats are finally getting turnovers.
Anyway, great analysis as usual.
Thanks, definitely a killer not to get much of anything out of the rookie class outside of Michel and Jackson this year, though who knows how much Wynn would’ve contributed given that they’ve been pretty healthy on the line. I do think Bentley would’ve made a big big difference. I already can’t wait to see him back on the field and think he’s a real building block, exactly the kind the defense needs.