The Houston Texans will come to Foxborough for the second time this season for an AFC Divisional playoff game against the top-seeded Patriots. The Texans are littered with former Patriots, and the teams are now playing for the third time in two seasons. Plenty of familiarity.
I wanted to avoid having to take so many old friends out to the woodshed. But it has to be done and TFB and BB are just the two cold-hearted motherfuckers to do it.
In September it was Jacoby Brissett, who was injured and played through a thumb injury that would eventually land him on IR. The defense had their most complete game of the season, pitching their first shutout since 2009.
The playoffs are here. The opponent is set. It’s go time in the Posits…
— Look, the Pats opened as 14.5-point favorites. I’m sure the Texans will play the us-against-the-world card and who knows, in one universe maybe Tom Brady throws a couple picks, the defense can’t stop Brock Osweiler, and Bill O’Brien, Romeo Crennel, Vince Wilfork and Mike Vrabel end the game with a hug-it-out Gatorade bath at midfield. But in this universe, and just about every other one, there’s no excuse for anything but a merciless execution.
— Yes, the Pats might be the biggest playoff favorite since 1998 but that won’t stop me from convincing myself the upset could happen. The Pats were nine-point favorites in 2010’s AFCDG against the Jets.
— But the real worry is winning the battle but losing the war because someone important gets hurt. The Pats had a banner year in the health department, going from 15 players on IR in 2015, to just four in 2016, with Rob Gronkowski being the only impact loss. I’ve been writing “all that really matters are injuries” for a couple years now. Well, here it is. Let’s hope it finishes off the same way it’s been all year and not, “well we won 100-0 but him, him and him all broke stuff…”
— Looking back at the first matchup, the defense signalled their first move to significant snaps in Cover-2 zone, a coverage they played quite a bit more this season. They were heavily Cover 1 Robber coverage in 2014 and 2015. If the Pats run similar coverage this time, the Texans will look to send their big tight ends up the seam.
— The real story of the Pats’ defensive shutdown was the work of Alan Branch, Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine. Valentine was one of the more impressive rookies, improving throughout the year and more than holding his own. Branch has really been the anchor of the trio, playing a good chunk of his snaps over the center. If those three dominate the same way on Saturday, the Texans offense would again be stifled.
— The Patriots ran near-exclusive three safety personnel the entire game. Now they have Eric Rowe, a long cornerback, so that could allow them a little more flexibility. They’re always pretty simple schematically early in the season, so I’d be surprised to see the exact same plan.
— There was also no Dion Lewis last time these two teams met and he’s a huge problem for the Texans. LeGarrette Blount had 24 carries for 105 yards and two touchdowns. Now with Lewis they can change pace at will and really get the defense on their heels. If Blount gets loose like he has in recent AFC playoff games against the Colts, the Texans won’t have a chance.
— I’m so curious how O’Brien, Crennel and George Godsey attack this game. Nobody knows better than them what they’re up against. They’re not without weapons on both sides of the ball, but putting together the 60-minute masterpiece it takes to win this game is near-impossible. Short passing attack, safe passes, play the long game. Absolutely no turnovers. Defensive red zone stops. Timely takeaways. Finish. So much easier said than done.
— But there sure is something special imagining Wilfork playing his last game in Foxborough. That would be one of those nice magical Patriots touches that pops up every once and awhile. If it’s a comfortable win and no one gets hurt, I’ll truly treasure seeing Vince walk off that field for the last time, point blank.
Around the NFL
— Four non-contests on Wild Card Weekend, which was a disappointment. Usually one game gets weird, and Packers-Giants almost did, but it wasn’t a banner weekend for parity. While I was hoping for another shot at the Giants in the Super Bowl, the Packers are clearly clicking right now, as are the Steelers, who should have a great battle with the Chiefs.
— I remain 60-40 wanting to face the Steelers over the Chiefs, should we uh, be so lucky to defeat the Texans of Houston. Ben/Brown/Bell scare me. They can score fast and no lead would truly be safe on the Steelers until the clock hits zero. But the Patriots had their best run defense DVOA under BB this season. I think they can make Bell work for every single yard. Malcolm Butler is familiar with Brown. And if the Pats stop Bell and put them in third-and-long, they should pick Ben off at least once. Throw in that Brady usually has a bead on the Steeler defense and the Patriots’ overall balance and I like the Pats’ chances, especially at home.
— The Chiefs play too much like the Patriots do and they have a talented defense and special teams that can both put points on the board. The scariest thing is they don’t turn the ball over. No, they match up very well across the board. Add in the experience of coming to Foxborough last year and likely being significant underdogs, and well, that one would be a sixty minute war that would come down to the last play that could go either way.
— It doesn’t even matter who the opponent is this week. It will be about the Patriots putting together their best 60 minutes of the year. If they do that they’re in the AFC Championship for the sixth-straight year. Wow.
