Patriots Gameplan: AFCDG vs. Houston Texans

The playoffs are here. Finally. Yes, it feels like most of what occurred in between watching the Patriots walk off the field in Denver after squandering a golden chance at another Super Bowl appearance to now was a bit of an annoying, meaningless blur. Brady’s suspension, Garoppolo, Brissett, a bunch of forgettable games, one or two good ones, losing Gronk, finishing strong and boom, January is here.

This is when things matter. This is when the legacies of Brady and Belichick can take a step forward. This is what we the fans live for. And here come the 9-7 Houston Texans, the biggest underdogs in an NFL playoff game since the turn of the century. Super Bowl betting is very much in the Patriots favor and this one isn’t all that scary.

Which is kinda scary.

It’s a far cry from the Colts in 2004 or even these same Texans in 2012. We kinda like these guys. Vrabel, Wilfork, RAC, BOB…But the Texans are standing in the Patriots’ way of a record sixth-straight conference championship game appearance, so throttle them we must.

Here’s the gameplan to survive and advance at the expense of some old pals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mN9f7oXM-U

Offensive Gameplan

Houston is not without their fair share of playmakers on defense and if they’re going to keep this game close, they’ll have to play their best game of the season. JaDaveon Clowney is finally showing why he was a top pick and if anyone can wreck a game plan, it’s him.

The Texans have the top-ranked defense if you consider yardage an accurate measure of a defense (I don’t), in DVOA they’re 7th. They’re good, but I’m not sure they have the 60 minute game necessary in them.

The problem for the Texans is the multitude of the Patriots offense. I know everyone just tends to see Brady as the offense, but the weaponry this year is almost unprecedented, even considering seasons like 2007, 2010 and 2012.

Where do you start if you’re Houston? There’s no one else to really key off of other than Julian Edelman on third down. After that it’s just a long list of matchup problems, none of which are so overwhelming they can dedicate a double team, but all of which could burn them.

In past years it was all about Gronk and Edelman, and my gameplans would be some version of get the ball to those two guys and let them make plays. Now? Find the Texans biggest struggle and attack it over and over.

There’s no secret to the Pats offensive approach now. They’ll open with Dion Lewis and begin a process of seeing how the Texans match their various personnel packages. How do they defend heavy Blount/Develin packages? How do they defend the Pony Lewis/White package? How do they defense the spread? The Patriots can run all these things with near-equal efficiency, so it’s just a matter of time until they find out what works and then the game really starts.

By the same token, this is why the Patriots offense is so hard to stop now. The gameplan used to be simple — press the receivers, make Brady throw deep and don’t sweat the running game. That no longer applies. The Patriots can play any game and even if they’re stymied for a drive or two, Brady is so mentally tough that it’s just a matter of time before they figure out the defense and start to move the ball at will.

The offensive gameplan? Do what they do and let the Texans try to stop it. It’s just that simple.

Defensive Gameplan

In the first matchup, the Patriots busted out a fair amount of Cover 2 zone, which was a bit surprising at the time. Obviously there were plenty of differences with the defense then and they were still in the early season experimental phase as well. However, as the season progressed they continued to play more and more Cover 2, a departure from their Cover 1-heavy schemes of recent years.

I’ve long believed that playing man is critical against good quarterbacks but that’s obviously not an issue this week, so I expect we’ll see plenty more Cover 2. It gives them good over-the-top coverage against DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller and forces Brock Osweiler to find the holes in the zones, something he struggled with in Week 3.

But if the Patriots are going to be as dominant as they were when they shut out the Texans in September it’s going to all start with Alan Branch, Vincent Valentine and Malcom Brown in middle. The Texans absolutely must get Lamar Miller going. Miller had nowhere to go last time, as the trio of defensive tackles dominated inside, setting up long yardage which led to Osweiler incompletions.

The critical matchup in the passing game will be up the seam, especially when the Pats are in Cover 2. Look for tight ends Ryan Griffin and CJ Fiedorowicz to be the biggest keys on offense. One or both must have huge games. That’s just how it works against Belichick. He’ll take away your best player (Hopkins) forcing you to beat him with guys like Griffin and Fiedorowicz.

The Patriots defense was at its worst this year when they weren’t tackling the checkdowns quickly enough. We saw some of it against the Dolphins a couple weeks ago. Matt Moore took the underneath stuff and the Pats were slow to close, often missing the first tackle. That kept the ball moving and ultimately resulted in a couple drives that looked too easy.

That’s the path to success for the Texans, who’d be smart to get Hopkins the ball on short passes as often as possible.

Still, no matter how terrible the Patriots defense can look on a single drive, they’ve always seemed to bounce back. Forcing takeaways would be the icing on the cake and make the Texans’ chances nearly impossible.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Ball Security — Multiple Patriots giveaways might be the Texans only chance to win this game, thus the Patriots must protect the ball like the game depends on it, because it does. There’s no secret about this, in the playoffs turnovers are everything. The Patriots could have their flatest overall game of the season, but if they don’t give the ball away, they’ll still probably win.

2. Stop Lamar Miller — Winning in the trenches early is what it’s all about. The Texans must keep Brady off the field with long sustained drives that end in touchdowns. With no running game they cannot control the clock unless they lean completely on short meaningless passes and those are rarely a recipe for success. Dont’a Hightower should be a huge key in back of Branch/Brown/Valentine.

3. Balance, Belichick-san — It’s weird to say the Patriots are entering a playoff run without needing to rely on Brady and Gronk, but it’s true. The heavy running game, the multi-receiver spread, the Pony package, even their basic 11 personnel is all deadly. The Pats have never been more committed to run/pass balance than this year and that has to continue in the playoffs. It will keep opponents on their heels and force them to defend everything on every down.

4. Our Best Game — For all the talk of how good or bad the Texans are, this game is really about the Patriots doing what the Patriots do. They’ve been getting better each week. I know that can be a cliche but it really is the truth. This game should feel like another big step forward in all three phases, especially coming off the bye week.

5. Win and Advance — Style points sure don’t matter in the playoffs. All that matters is winning this game and moving on to host the AFC Championship, while preferably not losing anyone to a significant injury (that’s a big part that I’ll avoid harping on). It’s a one game season and I think we’ll see a Patriots team that somehow still feels like they have something to prove, God bless them.

 

Prediction: Patriots 31, Texans 10