Patriots Scouting Report: Houston Texans AFC Divisional Game

With Miami losing today to Pittsburgh, we now know that it will be the Houston Texans coming to town to take on the top-seeded New England Patriots on Saturday night. While the Patriots did beat Houston 27-0 back in Week 3, it is hard to look at that game and find much insight into what either team plans to do this time around due to how greatly the Patriots have changed.

As a refresher, Jacoby Brissett was the starting quarterback, Rob Gronkowski had yet to be placed on IR and was making his season debut, Jamie Collins and Jonathan Freeny led the Patriots in tackles, Kyle Van Noy was a Lion, Rob Ninkovich was still suspended, and Dion Lewis and Dont’a Hightower were sidelined with injury. That being said, here is a in-depth overview of the Texans and their roster, position by position, so you can get to know the Patriots first playoff opponent!

Record: 9-7 (AFC South Champions), 2-6 on the road

Notable wins: vs Chiefs (Week 2), vs Lions (Week 8)

Notable losses: @ Patriots (Week 3), @ Broncos (Week 7), vs Raiders (Week 11), @ Packers (Week 13)

OFFENSE

Overview:

Houston’s offense is 29th in the NFL in total yards and passing yards, and are tied for 28th in points per game. They are also tied for 26th in turnover differential (-7), in large part due to Brock Osweiler’s 16 interceptions, which is tied for 4th-most among all quarterbacks. The one bright spot for the Texan offense is their rushing attack, which ranks 8th in rush yards on the season, led by Lamar Miller‘s 1,073.

To go a bit deeper, Houston ranks 22nd in third down conversation rate (just 37%), and are 31st in touchdown percentage in the red zone, at a rate of just 41%. However, the Houston offense is the least penalized offense in football, with just 87 flags thrown against.

Position by Position:

Quarterback

Brock Osweiler:

3o1/510 (59%), 2,957 yards (5.8 yards per attempt), 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, passer rating of 72.2
Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade: 40.1 (34th, between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff, ELITE company)
Week 3 vs. Patriots: 24/41 (59%), 196 yards, 1 INT
Wild Card game: 14/25 for 168 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions

Observations:

Benched in the Week 15 matchup against Jacksonville after throwing two first-half interceptions
Sat out Houston’s Week 16 win against Cincinnati before entering into the game on New Years Day after Tom Savage left with a head injury
27th in completion percentage, 30th in yards per attempt, and 29th in passer rating
Is owed more money than Tom Brady over the next two seasons!

Running Back

Lamar Miller:

268 carries for 1,073 yards, 4.0 YPA, and five touchdowns on the ground
31 catches for 188 yards and one touchdown through the air
PFF grade: 69.5 (30th)
Week 3 vs. Patriots: 21 carries for 80 yards, 3.8 YPA, and 4 catches for 27 yards
Wild Card game: 31 carries for 73 yards, 2.4 YPA, and one touchdown

Observations:

Certainly knows New England well after playing the first four seasons of his career in Miami, and has racked up 424 yards in his 8 career games against the Patriots, good for a 3.8 yards per attempt average
Has received 20+ carries in 7 games this season, and averages 19.1 per game

Wide Receiver

Deandre Hopkins:

78 catches for 954 yards, 12.2 YPC, and four touchdowns
PFF grade: 79.9 (23rd)
Week 3 vs. Patriots: 4 catches for 56 yards on 8 targets
Wild Card game: 5 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets and a touchdown

Observations:

Registered 100 receiving yards in a game six times in 2015, but has only gone over 100 yards in two games this season
Caught at least 5 balls in 15 out of 16 games last season, yet reached the mark in only 10 games in 2016
42 fewer targets than his record-setting 2015 campaign, in which he received 192 targets

Will Fuller (rookie):

47 catches for 635 yards, 13.5 YPC, and two touchdowns
PFF grade: 66.7 (80th)
Week 3 vs. Patriots: 3 catches for 31 yards on 7 targets
Wild Card game: 4 catches for 37 yards on 5 targets

Observations:

Logged consecutive games with 100 receiving yard to start his career, but has yet to reach the mark since, and has failed to get over 60 yards since Week 4
Despite being second among Texan receiver in snaps, Fuller only had more than five catches on just one game this season, and it came all the way back in Week 4

Keith Mumphery:

10 catches for 69 yards, 6.9 YPC, and no touchdowns
PFF grade: 49.9 (114th)
Week 3 vs. Patriots: Inactive
Wild Card game: no catches for no yards on no targets

Observations:

Has played 63% of possible snaps in the past five weeks, after playing just 10% of the time before Week 12
Was forced to fill in at #3 WR after promising young pass catchers Jaelen Strong (2015 3rd-round pick) and Braxton Miller (2016 3rd-round pick) both landed on IR in December

Tight End

C.J. Fiedorowicz:

54 catches for 559 yards, 10.4 YPC, and four touchdowns
PFF grade: 78.6 (12th)
Week 3 vs. Patriots: 0 catches for 0 yards
Wild Card game: 2 catches for 35 yards on 4 targets

Observations:

Never topped 100 receiving yards in any game this season, and only gained more than 60 yards three times
Played a season-low 25 snaps (35% of available snaps) against the Patriots in Week 3

Ryan Griffin:

50 catches for 442 yards, 8.8 YPC, and two touchdowns
PFF grade: 46.4 (61st)
Week 3 vs. Patriots: 8 catches for 52 yards
Wild Card game: 3 catches for 29 yards on 4 targets

Observations:

Out-snapped Fiedorowicz in the Week 3 contest (47 to 25), but is Houston’s clear #2 TE (played just 45% of available snaps compared to Fiedorowicz’s 60%)

Offensive Line

Houston’s offensive line has allowed 32 sacks on the year, good for 11th in the NFL, yet is 22nd in QB hits, surrendering 97, the most of any AFC playoff team. However, they didn’t allow a single sacks or QB hits against Oakland last week, an impressive feat against Khalil Mack and the Raiders pass rush.

LT – Duane Brown:

Missed the first four games of the year, but has slid back into his role as Houston’s left tackle since then
PFF grade: 85.7 (16th)

LG – Xavier Su’a-Filo

Started all 16 games at left guard this season
PFF grade: 59.2 (59th)

C – Greg Mancz:

Started all 16 games at center this season
PFF overall grade: 85.2 (7th)

RG – Jeff Allen

Started all 16 games at right guard this season
PFF grade: 50.2 (66th)

RT – Chris Clark:

Started season at left tackle (where he played in the Week 3 matchup), but transitioned to right tackle after Derek Newton tore both patellar tendons in Week 7
PFF grade: 37.7 (76th)

DEFENSE

Overview:

Houston’s strength lies on the defensive side of the ball, as they have allowed the least yards in the NFL this season (side-note: the past three seasons, the team that led the NFL in yards allowed made it to the Super Bowl). Houston has allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL, trailing only Denver, but fall off a bit in terms of rush yards allowed, as they rank just 12th in the league. While the lack of yardage allowed is impressive, that achievement has not transferred to an elite points per game average; they rank just 11th in the league, allowing 20.5, well off the pace set by your New England Patriots at 15.6.

Houston has the 11th best rate on third down, allowing a conversion on 39% of third downs, and own the league’s 8th-best touchdown percentage in the red zone at a rate of 52.3%, tied with the Patriots. While their offense has been one of the most disciplined units in the league, the same cannot be said about their defense, as they rank 25th in the league, having been called for 114 penalties.

The Houston defense is tied for 24th in the NFL with 31 sacks, but were able to rack up 3 sacks against a depleted Oakland offensive line. Houston struggles to turn the ball over, as they rank tied for 26th in takeaways with just 17 (11 interceptions, 6 fumble recoveries).

Position by position (Houston’s base defense is a 3-4):

Defensive Line

RE – D.J. Reader:

One sack, four run stuffs, 22 tackles
PFF grade: 64.1 (54th)

NT – Vince Wilfork:

No sacks, two run stuffs, 21 tackles (has yet to record a sack since the 2013 season with the Patriots)
PFF grade: 43.3 (98th)

LE – Jadeveon Clowney:

6 sacks (second in sacks for Houston), 12 run stuffs, 52 tackles, one forced fumble
PFF grade: 85.8 (13th)
Wild Card game: 4 pressures, one tackle, two passes defended, and an outstanding interception

*Clowney has played much of the season as a hand-in-the-ground defensive end, but routinely shifts to outside linebacker during games

Linebackers

OLB – Whitney Mercilus:

– 7.5 sacks (leads Houston in sacks), 8 run stuffs, 53 tackles, and one forced fumble