Patriots Third Down Deep Dive

The Patriots offensive third-down conversion rate has slipped below 40 percent for the just the third time (2005, 2013) since 2001, while the third-down defense ranks 25th in the league with their worst rate since 2011. If you’re looking for a reason why the Patriots have sputtered at times in 2018, third down, aka the money down, is a great place to start.

Without Julian Edelman for the first four games, the offense also had to replace super-clutch Danny Amendola, as well as Dion Lewis who sparked them quite a few times last year. When Gronk was slowed with injuries, it just made it that much 2018’s offensive transition harder. The results are obvious, as this new iteration of the Brady offense hasn’t quite totally clicked yet.

The defense doesn’t quite have those excuses. Aside from losing Ja’Whaun Bentley this is pretty much the defense the Patriots brought into training camp. They’ve shown plenty of signs of being a total defense, but their inconsistencies, especially on the road have been maddening. Some speed bumps should be expected with Matt Patricia gone and Brian Flores in, but now is the time for them to lock in.

Overall, the 2018 Patriots are 14th on offense and 24th on defense on third down. The 2015 and 2016 teams combined were 4th on offense and 7th on defense. The offense’s last dip was 2013, when they fell to 16th. The defense hasn’t fallen to 2010 depths yet, when they ranked 32nd in the league, allowing a whopping 47.1 percent conversion rate. They’re just at 43.1 now, the same rate they had in 2011, but still hovering over the bottom third of the league.

2015 and 2016 were the height of the second generation Belichick Patriots and where the bar was set before injuries and departures started to add up in 2017. Those two years were the best run by the third down units on both sides of the ball since ’05-’06. Let’s take a look at how and where they’ve declined.

The biggest drop-off has come from the short-yardage spots, especially on defense where they’ve fallen from 1st to 29th. With three-or-less to go, they’re even worse, 31st in the league. The offense has dropped from 2nd to 25th on 3rd-and-five-or-less.

Away from the line of scrimmage, they’ve been average which is actually better than the 2015-16 teams were. No team is perfect, but the holes that are developing are concerning because they speak to winning the battles in the trenches. That where the Patriots have to win more, whether it’s their defensive line dominating or the offense getting more in sync with an established ground game.

Offensively, give it time. The bye week was good for them and with Shaq Mason and Gronk back, the pieces are in place. Rested Michel and new dad Burkhead will be the biggest boost. Get them going and the offense will be one capable of keeping up in any Super Bowl matchup.

Defensively, play better up front. The secondary brainfart games continue to pop up, but it starts along the line of scrimmage. Malcom Brown, Lawrence Guy and Dietrich Wise have been at the heart of the inconsistency problems. Even Trey Flowers has lost the edge on some big plays. Adrian Clayborn is just a designated pass rusher. Derek Rivers hasn’t shown up yet. Adam Butler brings energy but needs to finish more consistently.

This is a defense that forced at least one turnover in every game before Tennesee.  Seven games with multiple takeaways. If that continues they’re going to be in every game they play.

There will be a lot of questions in the defensive front seven this offseason. The question between now and then is who can make plays on third down to force a punt? Those are the guys who should be invested in.