The Patriots’ defensive end group suffered heavy departures and attrition in 2017. Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard, key passing-down contibutors for the Super Bowl 52 squad, left via free agency. When Rob Ninkovich retired just a week into training camp it was the biggest blow of all.
Outside his four-game suspension to start 2016 and Ninkovich started every game since mid-way through the 2010 season. You don’t simply replace that kind of reliability, not to mention clutch plays that the “Jet Killer” Ninkovich made on a regular basis.
Third-round pick Derek Rivers tore his ACL in training camp, another critical blow at a ravaged position. Cassius Marsh played 267 defensive snaps, then asked out. It was just too much.
The Patriots were then forced to lean completely on Trey Flowers, while using rookies Dietrich Wise and Adam Butler, Bills practice squadder Eric Lee, and later James Harrison, the strongest edge-setter of them all, as replacements.
2017’s defensive ends were a shell of what they had been since the early 2010’s, before Ninkovich and Chandler Jones started a run of having two strong starters at the top and an array of pass rushers behind them. Though in 2013 and 2014 it was pretty much just Ninkovich and Jones who miraculously played almost every snap and never got hurt.
Will things be better this year? It sure looks like it.
The good news about making it through an injury apocalypse season is that suddenly you have a handful of young, low-end-of-the-roster players who have NFL experience. The team might not have planned to have to play Wise, Butler and Lee as much as they did, but now both those players saw significant game action that could serve as a springboard going into their second seasons.
However, nothing will be handed to the three sophomores because the highest pick of them all, Rivers is back, along with the free agency addition of veteran Adrian Clayborn. Clayborn stepped into the starting right side spot for OTAs and should pair with Flowers to give the Pats two solid edge presences out of their four-man nickel front.
Quick aside, I know there’s a lot of confusion out there about the difference within the Patriots’ defensive scheme between defensive end, edge and outside linebacker. What’s most important to my analysis is that I base everything off a four-man nickel front, where there is far less confusion than if we try to categorize players out of a 4-3 under, which they might actually play in a game 10 percent of the season. They’ll be in “sub” fronts 80 percent of the time at least.
What’s important to know is that the left side defensive end, Ninkovich’s old spot, is asked to drop into coverage more frequently than the right side. This is because right-handed quarterbacks love the quick slant to that side. Dropping out a potential rushing left defensive end can often result in interceptions, as we saw with Nink plenty of times.
Now Flowers likely heads to that spot full time, which could round out his stats in the passes defended and interception categories, but might cost him in the sack department. There’s no question, Flowers is the centerpiece of the defensive front now and is in the last year of his deal. Could a drop in sack stats hurt his payday next offseason? The Pats would be wise to extend him asap regardless.
Rivers is really intriguing, but I’m not entirely sure where he fits best yet. Ideally, he can be one of these hand-down defensive ends, and won’t be just a pass rush specialist. His “get-off” was what was most impressive when he was drafted. Has he gotten that back yet after the ACL tear? We can’t truly judge his ceiling until 2019 regardless, but they could really use a contribution from him even if he is just a pass rusher.
Butler didn’t play much defensive end last year but was one of the most disruptive interior rushers the team has had recently. He was inconsistent as most rookies are, but after making the team as an undrafted rookie he played 44.7 percent of the defensive snaps, just behind Wise’s 51.3 percent. If he improves as a base defensive end and continues to progress as an interior rusher, Butler could have the inside track on a roster spot. Interior disruption is worth its weight in hoodies.
Wise flashed at times as well, recording two sacks in the divisional round win over the Titans. But he was MIA for the Super Bowl, another curious decision from BB when nothing much was working defensively. Wise should be a reliable third defensive end who can set the edge behind Clayborn and Flowers, while also bringing some pass rush ability. He very well could be the ascendant starter on the right side after Clayborn but he’s still probably a year off.
Lee is the wild card. He was thrown immediately into the fire out of necessity but I’m on the fence if he’s actually a player with potential or just the best available JAG? He played a quarter of the defensive snaps despite joining the team in Week 12. Will Lee blossom with that experience under his belt? Or is he still Just A Guy?
Geneo Grissom is back on the training camp roster after being cut and re-added, then having to give up his #92 to Harrison. A solid special teamer and experienced utility end, Grissom’s roster spot is tenuous given the influx of youth at defensive end.
Keionta Davis spent his rookie season on the reserve/non-football injury list. A year in Foxborough should help him if he’s healthy now, but it will be an uphill climb for him to make the team. Still, always curious to see how young players do in camp.
Here’s how I’d expect the top line, gameday fronts to look like with Clayborn in the mix:
- Flowers-Shelton-Brown-Clayborn – Base Front
- Rivers-Guy-Valentine-Wise Jr. – 2nd String Base Front
- Rivers-Butler-Flowers-Clayborn – Pure Pass Rush Front
As I see it, Clayborn and Rivers should make this front seven immediately better. With Clayborn’s edge-setting ability, it will lock down a major weakness on the right side of the defense that wasn’t patched up until Harrison arrived. The Patriots defense has been SHREDDED on first down and that’s where Clayborn should help most.
If Rivers has his explosiveness back, he will be a useful passing down tool who should see plenty of snaps with Adam Butler, getting after quarterbacks. Best of all, a better supporting cast should only help Trey Flowers become even more of a star. He’ll have a lot more on his plate now than he did back in 2016 but he should be ready to take on this starring role.
As the front goes, so goes the defense. With Dont’a Hightower back behind and beside them, the defensive end group won’t have to do it alone and that will give Brian Flores a lot to play with.
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