The Patriots ground game jumped from 17th in the rushing DVOA in 2016 all the way to third in 2017, good enough for their third-best ranking since 2000. But with leading rusher Dion Lewis gone to Tennesee, the Patriots will be looking to re-adjust their backfield, with first-round pick Sony Michel the centerpiece.
Despite the impressive season from the running backs, I felt like the Patriots went away from what worked best for them in the playoffs. In games where they gave Lewis the ball 10-plus times the team was 10-0, with a 15.6 average point margin of victory. That was on display against the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, but Lewis would get just nine carries against the Jags and Eagles in the last two playoff games.
I know it’s hard to complain when you put up as much yardage in the Super Bowl as the Patriots did, but they also lost the time of possession battle by 10 minutes and were 2-4 in the red zone. Lewis was second on the team in red zone touchdowns. For as much attention as Malcolm Butler draws in criticism of usage, I’d put Lewis up there as well.
But alas, Lewis is gone and the Pats will have to figure out who’s up next. They have a bunch of interesting options, but Michel’s ceiling could determine if this ground game can remain atop the league rankings in 2018.
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The Patriots brought back Rex Burkhead on a three-year deal. Burkhead had plenty of flashes during 2017, with a balanced 254 yards rushing and 264 yards receiving in 10 games. He missed four games early in the season and the final two due to injuries and was a non-factor in the playoffs aside from a 46-yard catch in the Super Bowl.
If Burkhead can stay healthy he’s the Patriots’ most balanced back. If he can stay healthy and stack success like he was unable to do last year, he could be in for a breakout season, as hard as it might be in such a crowded backfield.
James White is a stellar third-down back and a Super Bowl 51 legend, but I have issues with the way the team uses him at times. Often this came in the form of using him right out of the gate even though he’s mostly a one-dimensional back. The offense would sputter early, getting on track once Lewis started picking up chunk yardage. White broke five carries in a game twice all season — the opening loss to the Chiefs (10) and the Super Bowl loss (7).
He’s a very good tool in the passing toolbox, but finding out how to best balance his usage with the rest of the backfield is a big key. He’ll be leaned on even more in the passing game without Julian Edelman for four games and Danny Amendola.
The Patriots drafted Sony Michel in the first round, blowing everyone’s minds that they’d ever value a running back like that again. Michel is everything they love — decisive, explosive and tough, but will he get the same kind of yards-after-contact that Lewis got? Will he make people miss like Lewis did? Perhaps not, but perhaps he will run over people like Lewis couldn’t. Learning Michel’s ceiling will be a process, but he has a chance to make the offense more physical and, in time, perhaps more explosive.
Will the Pats keep a fourth back for short yardage? Mike Gillislee and free agent pick up Jeremy Hill are hoping so. Gillislee was the early down/short yardage man out of the gate last year. He had four touchdowns in the first two games and would net 98 carries in the first eight games but would see action in just one more game after that point, a week 15 win over Buffalo.
Whatever the reason the Patriots soured on Gillislee and crawling out of that doghouse will be no easy task, especially with Hill added. Signed to a one-year affordable deal, Hill started his career with a bang with the Bengals, posting 29 touchdowns in his first three seasons. Last year he played just seven games and had 116 yards on 37 attempts with no touchdowns.
To the Patriots it doesn’t really matter who wins the battle between Hill and Gillislee. One resurrected career is all they need. I’d give Hill the slight edge just because Gillislee already fell out of favor last year.
Veteran Brandon Bolden can be cut and re-signed and is unlikely to get much attention at running back at this phase of his career. Still, he can fill in seamlessly at the spot if ever needed. Special teams will be his way on the roster.
Undrafted rookie Ralph Webb finishes out the group and is one of the highest paid undrafted players in the league. Like you’d expect, Webb runs hard and has been durable. He’ll have to fight for reps and make every one count.
Imagining a backfield featuring Michele-White-Burkhead, and Hill running like he did early in his career, is tantalizing, but there’s also the cautionary tale of last season. Defining roles is critical when you have such a deep group. Lean on the wrong guy against the wrong team and it can slow the whole offense.
But it’s hard not to feel confident that this stable of backs should be able to overcome any injuries that befall them. That’s really the most important thing, being able to maintain the kind of balanced offense the Patriots want, even if they lose key players.
Seeing Michel’s impact is one of the things I’m most excited in camp for. We know the Pats will be fine with Burkhead and White to lean on, but Michel is the one who could make special things happen.
Training Camp Battle Breakdowns:
Do you recall if Michel ran a lot with a fullback in college? Running behind Devlin has got to be nice for a rookie. I only hope he is as good at catching the ball as a lot of experts think he will be despite only catching a handfull of balls least season and less than 100 yards. The great thing about Lewis was that the play was never certain to be a run even while he was on the field.