One of my favorite things in life is ending up in a conversation with another Patriots fan who has no idea that I have been faithfully blogging about the team for nine years. That was the case on Monday when I jumped into a conversation with a couple unknowing people at my real job and listened their deeply held beliefs about this Patriots team.
One of them wasn’t feeling the magic this year, the other thought the offense looked terrible against the Rams and that the only hard game left was Miami. The conversation ended before I could interject any of my own analysis, and really they didn’t seem to care, even though I could at least give them some perspective that they both badly needed.
So my frustration from that conversation has spilled over here into the Tuesday 10 Pack, where I vent about the Monday over-reactors as the dust settles from win number 10.
Here we go…
1. The latest on Danny Amendola is that it’s a high ankle sprain that will keep him out until the playoffs. Amendola was a great luxury this season. The Pats didn’t need to rely on him, but rather brought him on in clutch moments as needed. Now that layer of insurance and experience is gone for the final quarter of the season. It appears Chris Hogan shifted more inside after Amendola went out, leaving Malcolm Mitchell on the outside. What’s clear now is that for the Patriots close this season out, they’re going to need to rely heavily on Hogan and Mitchell. So far both seem up to the task, but the next two games especially will be their hardest challenges yet.
2. Don’t look now but Martellus Bennett is leading the Pro Bowl vote for tight ends. And yet he’s still not good enough for many Patriots fans because he’s not Gronk. Get over it. If Bennett can get healthy and return to his September form for the playoffs the Pats offense will be more than fine. He has just six catches for 40 yards and no TDs in the last three games.
3. Call me crazy but I’m starting to wonder if I need to start preaching patience with Shea McClellin. It’s not just that he got a sack (aka made an actual play) against the Rams. It’s that I thought back to Rob Ninkovich‘s development and see a potential corollary with Shea. While he doesn’t stand out, he seems like he’s generally in the right position, pretty strong on the edge and not running around lost. I don’t know. Maybe as he gets more comfortable with the unique role the Pats have transitioned him to he’ll start making more impact plays.
4. The Pats 1-12 defensive performance on third down dropped their ranking all the way to 14th, their best mark of the season. That’s nice to see, even if it did come at the expense of what Mike Lombardi called a “high school offense.” The turnovers are picking up as well. Both signify an impressive turnaround this season. The one problem area that continues to stick out — red zone defense where they’ve dropped to their second-worst rate (58.8%, 21st overall) in Belichick’s tenure.
5. The D has the second-best points-per-game in the league with 17.3 but that’s still just sixth-best under Belichick with 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2007 all coming out lower.
6. Offensively the Pats have fallen off their pace of the last two seasons when it comes to points. After being over 29 PPG in 2014 and 2015, they’re down to 26.6 PPG, sixth overall. But if you throw out the non-Brady games, the Pats are averaging 29.8 PPG with no. 12 under center. That would be second-best in the NFL behind Atlanta. Obviously one-thumbed Jacoby Brissett getting shut out by the Bills is killing that ranking.
7. Jabaal Sheard‘s work in coverage with three passes defended against the Rams was an unexpected twist to him rejoining the defensive end rotation. It was a reminder of how good this Patriots defense would be if Sheard and the others lived up to their past performances and what we expected from them this year. We saw a small glimpse of it against the inept Rams, but against the Ravens we’ll know for sure which way things are trending. I just have no idea how the Pats approach Sheard this offseason, if they do at all.
8. I try not to turn the page to the offseason until the offseason, but if I had to throw out some areas to address in the draft I’d be right back where I was last season — athletic swing tackle and a hard-charging running back. Or how about a big athletic linebacker like Jamie Collins? Sigh… Free agency will play majorly into it, but you’d have to put defensive end up there too, especially if Sheard walks. A third coverage safety would be worth a look too and the search for shifty quick-open guys is never ending for this offense. But of course, the Pats never draft what they need so this is all moot anyway.
9. Eric Rowe‘s hamstring is something to monitor this week. Whether it’s him, Coleman or Cyrus outside vs. the Ravens this week, it’s a matchup I expect Joe Flacco to attack. And by attack I mean underthrow and try to draw PI calls. All three of those corners could struggle playing the Ravens’ receivers like they need to be played. Might not be a bad idea to shift Logan Ryan back to the outside for this one, especially given the lack of receiving threats on Baltimore.
10. The more I study the Ravens and think about the matchup, this is likely the defining game of the 2016 season. I know we all have Denver circled, but that one is shaping up to have more bark than bite. And I’d never understate the lift this team would get from beating the Broncos in Denver. But the Ravens are streaking and despite their flaws, match up well with the Pats. This will be a great test and a true litmus of where we’re at. The upcoming Pats-football-free Sunday is going to draaaaaaag.
