Back in the Ministry of PatsPropaganda today and excited to get back into the daily blog flow after a nice two week vacation. Hard to believe the 2016 regular season is over. In case you missed the Posits on Monday they had plenty of thoughts on the season overall.
As 20 teams start their offseasons there’s been plenty of news as teams blow things up and start anew. Luckily for the Pats this week we can take a bit of breather, focus on the regular season a bit and wait to see how this weekend’s slate of games play out.
Here’s what’s on my mind from the last couple days of Pats news…
- Both Matt Patricia and Josh McDaniels are drawing plenty of head coaching interest, with Nick Caserio also being mentioned as part of a package deal to San Francisco. These kind of changes are inevitable and as we all know by now, Belichick has a full system in place and no matter who of that group leaves things will be okay. I worried when Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel left, I worried when Scott Pioli left, but now, I’m not really worried about any of them. McDaniels is probably due for another chance, but Brian Daboll seems like he’s been groomed to take over. Belichick would probably keep the DC title open as someone like Brian Flores learns on the job like Patricia did initially. The train will keep on rolling even if both leave, but my money is on Patricia sticking around.
- Here’s the thing — 2017’s Patriots team is going to look a lot different regardless, especially on defense where key guys like Hightower, Branch, Ryan, Long, Sheard and Harmon are all set to hit free agency. Offensively, Martellus Bennett and LeGarrette Blount, two guys who really carried the Pats at times this year, will be free agents. February will be a critical month and of course, the good news is that the Patriots have plenty of cap room to keep who they want. My priority list currently:
- Hightower
- Bennett
- Branch
- Blount
- Sheard
- No matter how the offseason goes, there’s not really any reason to panic. Offensively, the whole OL will return, along with Brady and his breakout weaponry in Hogan and Mitchell along with Edelman. With Gronk expected to be in the offseason program we can at least pencil him back in as well. Bennett will be tricky. Still feel like he’s 50/50. Blount and Develin should be pretty easy to retain.
- Defensively, I’m fascinated to see how things unfold. Trey Flowers‘ emergence is a huge piece of the puzzle, but they’ll need to rebuild the defensive end rotation which was a huge strength this year and hopefully kept all four healthy and fresh for this playoff run. Hightower is the first piece to consider. Reading between the lines — his captaincy and getting Willie McGinest‘s old locker — it would seem like the Pats want him to be the defensive leader going forward. But how much is he going to expect? He missed three games this year and was healthy for all 16 just once (2013) in his first five seasons. But he’s the tone setter on defense. I just don’t know how you replace a player like that, three down linebackers don’t grow on trees and there’s certainly no one in house who can come close to replacing what he does.
- Duron Harmon is another interesting free agent. He gives the secondary so much flexibility, especially with McCourty. If he walks it could really limit a lot of the coverage flexibility they’ve had the last few seasons. But how much can you really afford to pay a third safety who should probably get a shot to start somewhere else? Could be a role to target in the draft.
- Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with all the offseason talk, there’s still a Super Bowl to win, and I feel just as good about our chances as I did in 2014. Really outside of 2004, 2007 and 2014, I’m not sure I’ve ever felt better going into the playoffs. All the other seasons had critical flaws, no matter how much we didn’t want to admit it. Some might think the defense could be one this year, but they’re light years better than what they were in 2010-2012. Add in a manageable slate of potential opponents and it will be the biggest disappointment of the last 15 years if they don’t at least make it to the Super Bowl.
- How this Patriots team ended this season has me really confident. It’s pretty rare to see them have to win Week 17 and come out with such focus and purpose. Nothing shocked me more than when the Ravens came out in the 2014 AFCDG and just dominated out of the gate. I don’t think this Patriots team will come out and lay a turd like that, especially against HOU/OAK/MIA.
- Sounds like Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell both looked a-okay when spotted in the locker room on Monday. If they’re healthy, along with Michael Floyd‘s breakout game in Miami, choosing who dresses is going to be a tough decision. Hogan and Amendola have to be locks, so it might come down to the rookie Mitchell or Floyd. For a team that had two healthy WRs just a couple weeks ago, they now could have five, all who can play and contribute. You’d hope Floyd would be inclined to stick around NE next year since they were the only team to give him a chance and you know, they’re the best team in the league.
- I go back and forth between who is more capable of winning the AFCCG in Foxboro between KC and PIT. PIT has the best QB, WR and RB, but KC’s best game is the perfect style to win in Foxboro — no mistakes, consistency with short passing game, ability to score on special teams. Yes, both teams have their issues for the Pats to exploit, but both are capable of pulling off the upset if they play a clean game.
- I’m not overly concerned with the potential matchups in the NFC for the Super Bowl. Honestly it could be anyone from Dallas to Detroit and the game is probably going down to the last play. That’s just how every Patriots Super Bowl since 2001 has gone. The legacy potential of playing the Seahawks or Giants again is appealing, while the hype for a Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl would be off the charts. Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers would certainly give our defense a chance to prove one and for all how good they really were. Plenty to digest no matter who it might be. Long road before then though…
- One bonus note – I really don’t care about the MVP. I never understand what the award is. Is it the best player in the league? Or is it the best player who carries an otherwise shitty team? And if it is the latter, why is this the biggest individual award they give out? Funny how much the word “valuable” can mess things up, because it really should be the best player in the league regardless of how much talent is around him.
