It’s hard to believe we’re closing in on the final quarter of the 2016 regular season. Football is getting cold and meaningful and before long we’ll be gearing up for another playoff run. As I wrote in the Posits yesterday, we’re getting so close to the end of the line without any major injuries it has me even more nervous.
Let’s hope the good health continues. We all know season-ending injuries in December are the ultimate season-changers. There’s little time to adjust so you have to redefine yourself on the fly in critical games. Not preferable.
Otherwise, it’s hard not to feel pretty good about the 2016 Patriots right now. They’re a bit banged up, have their crappy defensive possessions and Gostkowski’s still missing a kick almost every game, but compared to the rest of the league, the Pats have to be the Super Bowl favorites, even with their messy edges.
Here’s a ten pack of thoughts after letting the win over the Jets marinate, along with taking stock of the rest of the league.
1. From 2010-2015 the Patriots were 6-9 in games that they didn’t force a turnover. This year they’re 4-2, which speaks to the lack of turnovers this year, but also their ability to win in spite of it. I wonder if this will pay dividends down the road. From 2010-2013 the Pats failed to force a turnover in four-straight season-enders. They got one against the Broncos in 2015, but that wasn’t enough. Obviously things are way easier when they do get takeaways, but winning without them at this rate is pretty unique to this defense. Not feeling like they have to rely on them could be a positive spark.
2. The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos should all beat up on each other (and hopefully we beat up on the Broncos), so I think the odds must be good for the Pats to secure the top seed in the AFC as long as there isn’t an injury-induced meltdown in December like there was last season. The better offenses like the Raiders, Chiefs and Steelers seem at least capable of pulling off a playoff upset in Foxboro, but let’s face it, the Pats will be firm favorites against anyone in the AFC as long as the game is at home.
3. Some things that have been under the radar with the offense is the continuity and consistency along the offensive line. I mentioned it earlier this season, but huge credit has to go to this steady group and has really settled in under Dante Scarnecchia. There’s few communication breakdowns and no pass rusher has singlehandedly destroyed our gameplan. The big test will be against those Broncos in a couple weeks. All eyes will be on Cannon/Solder vs. Von Miller in that one.
4. Speaking of Cannon, here’s an update-to-date look at my top 5 internal free agent power rankings: 1. Hightower — Not a great year, but still the key piece for the defense. 2. Bennett — Totally shocked by what a revelation he’s been this year. 3. Cannon — anyone want to argue he should get another contract to start at right tackle? 4. Blount — career year, should easily be back on another 1-2 year contract. 5. Branch — suspension stinks, but he’s been their best DT. I could see a world where they move on from both Blount and Branch with youth, especially if Lewis finishes the season healthy.
5. Harmon and Ryan will likely get bigger money elsewhere and while the Pats have corner depth behind Ryan (who’s currently the third corner), but replacing Harmon to keep McCourty flexible will be a priority. Develin and Bolden should be easy re-signings for low money. Long and Sheard are the big question marks. I’d bet Long is more likely to be back since he’d probably be cheaper and willing to take a team-friendly deal to keep winning. No idea what other teams would be willing to give Sheard at this point based on his down season. Maybe they bring them both back on one-year deals. Sheard might want a change of scenery though.
6. I wish we tracked the man/zone splits for the defense. Maybe it’s just the matchups lately, but they’re spinning the dial back and forth between the two far more than the last couple seasons. One example is on the two plays of the last Jets possession. The five-yard completion came against zone, but the Long strip sack came again man. Both times they rushed just three, but no one’s complaining now given the result. With more and more mobile quarterbacks out there, especially in the NFC, I wonder if so much experience in zone will be helpful down the road.
7. In digging back through the stats I track I’m amazed at how good the 2003 Patriots defense was. In terms of my bend-don’t-break stats, the 2003 Pats were 1st in points-per-drive, 2nd in turnovers-per-drive for the “break” side, and 4th in yards-per-drive and 14th in plays-per-drive for the “bend” side. That 14th is one of the only important rankings outside the top 10 and illustrates that even that defense had a bit of a conservative side to them. For receiver coverage they ranked 1st vs. WR1, 4th vs. WR2, 3rd vs. WR3, 1st vs. TEs and 20th (?) against running backs. So yeah, no one was ever open other than the check downs. We continue to see elements of that today.
8. Re-watched some of the key moments of the Jets game and thought Malcom Brown had perhaps his best game as a pro. Obviously forcing the intentional grounding was a huge moment in the game. Brown’s been solid in the first two years of his career, all that was missing were some splash plays and he made a couple against the Jets. It must continue if Branch is in fact suspended four games.
9. What has to be most scary for potential opponents is how impossible it is to key on any one guy on the Patriots offense. So many guys have made clutch plays for them, Brady has to feel almost as comfortable as he did in 2007 that the open guy will make the necessary play. Maybe there isn’t a Randy Moss, but on paper I’d take the top-to-bottom weaponry of 2016 over 2007’s. Getting Gronk and Bennett as close to fully healthy as possible is a huge key for December. The sooner the Pats start clinching stuff the better.
10. It’s going to be hard to get up for the Rams-to-the-slaughter game this weekend. Hopefully it’s another AZ 2008 or TEN 2009-esque injury-less smackdown. Could be a trap game with so much to get fired up for against the Ravens and Broncos, two teams that might not be at a level we expected in previous years, but still always seem to give the Pats a hard time just like the Jets did last weekend. Go 3-0 in this stretch and there’s a good chance the home game against the Jets (who should be packing it by Christmas eve) will be to clinch homefield. No one wants to go to Miami needing a win again like last year, especially with the Dolphins surging.