Third down defense was obviously the headline in this one so today we’re just going to take a closer look at some of the more interesting ones. The Jets converted 8-of-14 third downs and really, that’s why this was a ballgame.
It was frustrating because they executed the early-down gameplan so well. The run defense was truly impressive and that bodes well for the defense long term. But really, pass rush on third down is vital and in this game it was virtually non-existent.
Couple that with some softer man coverage and the Jets were picking up first downs on numerous 3rd-and-longs.
Let’s review the damage…
1. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 10, Decker 24 yards. FIRST DOWN!
Pats in Cover 2 Man. Decker motions across formation then runs an in cut across the open flat. Pats rush 3, with Hightower spying Fitzpatrick. Throw comes in rhythm as Easley/Nink are held up. If Hightower drops a bit he might’ve take this throw away, as the MOF is wide open. Butler stumbles at Decker’s stem, and can’t recover.
VERDICT: Quick play, Butler needed better patience as Decker reached the stem of his route. But knowing the MOF was open he should’ve anticipated it was an in cut.
2. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 10, Decker 11 yards. FIRST DOWN!
Pats in Cover 1 Man. Butler is off Decker but steps toward him at the snap to get a jam but misses and is in recovery mode the rest of the down. Decker stops and turns, blocking Butler out with his size. This time it’s a traditional pass rush with Collins/Hightower dropping into the flat. Pocket holds just long enough.
VERDICT: Needed more disruption from one of the front four as Collins/Hightower dropping out did nothing to confuse anyone. That’s where you need Easley to truck someone. Still, Butler was sloppy with his technique and couldn’t recover. Tough gamble on the jam, if he had gotten a hand on Decker the timing might’ve been thrown off.
3. 1Q, Pats 3-0, Jets 3rd & 2 at the Pats 2. Incomplete. STOP!!
Pats in goalline, the Jets try to iso Chung on tight end Cumberland. Probably a touchdown most times, but Chung might’ve gotten a hand in there. Tough to tell from the All-22 view. Pats hold for a field goal.
VERDICT: Get ready for more of these kind of targets, Chung.
4. 1Q, Tied 3-3, Jets 3rd & 4, Decker 17 yards. FIRST DOWN!
Pats in Cover-1 Man. Butler is playing off and this time Decker beats him with an out route. Pats send 6 this time but everyone is picked up and Fitzpatrick makes a quick and perfect throw.
VERDICT: Every pass rusher is blocked one-on-one and Butler’s coverage is just soft enough for Fitz to throw it in there.
5. 1Q, Tied 3-3, Jets 3rd & 10, Kerley 11 yards. FIRST DOWN!
Pats in Cover-1 Man as Jets run a sort of screen pass into the middle of the defense. Kerley cuts in, Coleman gets picked (probably illegally) and then Fitzpatrick sidearms it to Kerley who makes his way through the middle of the field avoiding tackles from Flowers and Chandler Jones.
VERDICT: Nice play design by the Jets to attack the vacated middle of the field. Perhaps a little better awareness from the defensive line could’ve stopped him short, but no one had a clean shot.
I’d just like to pause here to point out we just ended the first quarter and the Jets have already picked up four of five third downs and three of those were from 3rd&10. Unacceptable and really set a crappy tone for the game.
6. 2Q, Jets 10-3, Jets 3rd & 2, Incomplete.
The Pats are in Cover-1 Man and have six in the box, rushing four then dropping out Ninkovich and Hightower. It looks like Jamie Collins gets a hand on the pass, but Logan Ryan has a solid jam and Marshall can never get going anyway.
VERDICT: Keep up the solid jams.
7. 2Q, Tied at 10, Jets 3rd & 8, Decker 7 yards. PUNT!
Pats in Cover-2 Man as the Jets have a bunch formation to the right. Butler seems leans the wrong way and that’s more than enough for Decker on the out route. Pressure is right there should the throw not be there but it is.
VERDICT: Butler just didn’t seem to close ground as quickly as we’ve seen in the past and took some false steps that he couldn’t recover from. Still, he tackled well enough and held the Jets a yard short.
8. 2Q, Pats 13-10, Jets 3rd & 3, Fitzpatrick sacked by Collins. PUNT!
Pats in Cover 1-Man with the Jets having two stacked receivers on either side of the formation. Hightower makes this play by blitzing from his off-line linebacker spot and pancaking Mangold into Fitzpatrick’s feet just as he sets. Collins shows good patience and finishes Fitz off as he tried to scramble.
VERDICT: Someone made a play on third down and they’re off the field. Shocker.
9. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 7, Smith 7 yards. FIRST DOWN!
Pats in Cover-2 Man as Smith runs a drag across the field and Fitzpatrick finds him off his back foot at the last second. This one was close as you can see from the pic below. Easley does a good job and that in turn opens things up for Ninkovich as well. Just a half a second too slow or else this one is a sack, and an ugly one.
VERDICT: Almost doesn’t count in pass rushing. Tough play for Coleman navigating all the traffic.
10. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 5, Marshall 13 yards. FIRST DOWN!
Pats in Cover-2 Man, Jets motion Marshall out of the backfield, Ryan gets hands on him but doesn’t disrupt him. No pressure on Fitzpatrick.
VERDICT: Jets could make this all day with that kind of pocket and he could’ve throw to Kerley as well in the flat.
11. 3Q, Pats 16-10, Jets 3rd & 7, Decker 23 yards. FIRST DOWN!
Pats in Cover-1 Man, Decker goes in motion and gets knocked off course by both Butler and Chandler Jones off the snap. Still he recovers and runs a post. Fitzpatrick is unpressured (Pats only rushed 3) and sticks a perfect pass in there. Huge play.
VERDICT: Even with Hightower and Chandler lurking in passing zones Fitzpatrick still found Decker who got back on course quicker than Butler did after the jam at the line.
12. 4Q, Jets 17-16, Jets 3rd & 7 from NE12, INCOMPLETE!
The third down stop that saved the game, this was a critical one. Pats are in a Cover-2 Man and rush 4. Marshall seemed to push Logan Ryan away and that in turn seemed to unsettle him for the back shoulder throw. Probably should’ve been a touchdown, but there was a bit of pressure coming with Hightower.
VERDICT: Not great, but the Pats kept the points gap manageable.
Overall I think the headline for all these third down mostly-failures was just no one making plays up front. The only disruption caused by anyone was one Hightower blitz. Otherwise there was limited disruption.
Coverage-wise Butler seemed to lack his usual anticipation and burst. I think this might’ve been his flattest game this season and he paid the price for it.
Still, the Pats won the war and their gameplan was generally effective. If they could’ve just gotten off the field on a couple more third downs their margin of victory would’ve been certainly higher.