Pats Posits: Brace for Hot Takes

The 2018 Patriots fell back to earth with a thud, losing to the Jaguars in a decidedly lackluster performance.  The defense, losing both key cogs Patrick Chung and Trey Flowers to concussions, looked every bit as terrible as the squad we saw against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52.

Offensively, the Patriots completely fell into my gameplan trap. They couldn’t run the ball, got into third-and-longs and couldn’t covert. There was no explosiveness out of the offense with Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan largely invisible and Cordarrelle Patterson‘s trick plays largely ineffective.

Not much worked for the Patriots on Sunday. But this isn’t uncharted territory and September stinkers are often the norm, not the exception. They looked every bit as listless against the Chiefs in 2014 and 2017 and both those squads still made the Super Bowl. If anything this is just a reminder that it’s a long season and what happens on September 15th can often have little or no effect on what happens in February.

The important thing is to figure out ‘what now.’ The Patriots still fought hard, a sign of nearly all Belichick’s teams, but they made way too many mistakes and way too few plays. Building off sparks like Kyle Van Noy‘s interception and Stephon Gilmore‘ and Trey Flowers’ forced fumbles. These Patriots never packed it in, but do they have the pieces to overcome the glaring number of shortcomings they displayed?

Let’s dive into some gut reaction Posits.

— Third Down tells the whole story of this game. Pats offense went 4-12. Pats defense was 10-14. Until brief glimpses at the end, the Patriots entire defense was completely on their heels and picked apart by the Jags, especially with underneath stuff which targeted their linebackers in space. Dont’a Hightower in coverage is not a good situation for the Pats. There was just nothing brewing without Flowers. Wise, Clayborn, Butler and Davis were largely invisible, as was Elandon Roberts. Jason McCourty led the team in tackles. That about sums it up.

— The defense was getting gashed before Flowers and Chung were lost, but those are significant injuries to arguably two of the top three defenders (Hightower being the other). Flowers is a consistent playmaker upfront, and that was completely devoid without him. Chung plays an in-the-box safety role, covers tight ends and gives the Pats a very stout run defending presence even when they have multiple defensive backs. If those two are gone for any length of time it significantly alters what the defense can do.

— This is a neutered defense with Flowers and Chung and it’s impossible to know how long either will or won’t be out. This is frustrating, and even more so because of the damage we know concussions do. It’s one of the unfortunate parts of watching football, wondering if these guys are going to have scrambled eggs in their skulls down the road just so we can cheer them on now. Fingers crossed both are okay because without them the Patriots will be a vastly different defense.

— This was the post-Amendola & Lewis/sans-Edelman offensive nightmare. Through two games the Pats are 8-26 on third down, 30.7 percent, way below the usual 50 percent range Brady and the offense have been in. It sure didn’t look like James White and Rob Gronkowski are enough. They must get more from Dorsett, Hogan and Hollister. Getting Edelman back will change everything, but this is just further proof of how important a quick-open receiver is to Brady.

— Dietrich Wise apparently breaking a finger was just crap icing on the terrible cake. If he’s out for a bit the Pats will have to give Derek Rivers his first game action, which could be a good thing. There wasn’t much brewing from any of them, and it’s like Adrian Clayborn is being saved solely for passing downs and he was ineffective with just two QB hits and no other stats.

— Eric Rowe getting benched is a pretty bad sign and it makes me wonder if Keion Crossen or JC Jackson is due to get a shot here eventually. Jason McCourty didn’t seem to do much better when he got in there. Gilmore was his usual self, made a handful of great plays but gave up a couple bad ones.

— I really don’t want to call him Sony Meh-chel but that was a meh start for him. Rex Burkhead started and ended the game, not sure what was up with that kind of rep distribution. There was so much potential for this backfield and now Jeremy Hill is done, Burkhead and Michel feel like damaged goods and James White can only do so much. The Pats must find a ground game or Brady’s not gonna last the entire season trying to convert third-and-longs. For a first-round pick I just wished I’d seen some small glimpse that Michel might be an explosive factor. We’ll have to wait another week on that.

— So where’s the hope? Well, we start on defensive third downs, just a couple more plays on third down and this is a different game despite at how bad and generally “not there” the defense looked. This was a special circumstances game between the heat and the very talented Jags making it their Super Bowl. They’re pretty much a lock for a letdown next week vs the Titans right?

— Football is a weird game. Just because you play a terrible game doesn’t mean you’re necessarily terrible. I am looking forward to seeing the All-22 because I suspect there were a lot more chances for the taking than anyone realized lived. If guys just do their proverbial job and make the plays that are there for them, a team can suddenly look light years better without having to replace the entire team with street free agents. Of course, that won’t stop the “Pats are done” narratives that will be thrown around this week.

— There’s no question they need Edelman back, and there’s just not any depth on the bench to hit like there is on defense where Rivers, Crossen and Jackson are just a few players waiting in the wings. Until someone like Corey Coleman pops (not holding my breath) the Pats really have no choice but to ride Hogan and Dorsett. Maybe use Hollister a bit more than 14 snaps? He’s about the only x-factor on the offense that we’re not really sure about at this point.

— Once again the Pats got dominated but didn’t get blown out. It’s a weird phenomenon that always seems to follow these Patriots and it’s probably the best sign of all. Getting your ass kicked by a conference rival can be a good thing because now it will force the Patriots to adjust and adjust they will. But there’s no real option at this point other than to just play better together.