Pats Posits: Bye Week Not a Magic Elixir, But Pats Still in Playoff Bye Hunt

On one hand, I feel like this weekend’s win over the Jets just reinforced what I’m already sure about with the 2018 Patriots, that with Sony Michel going they’re a very good offense. Without him, they’re up and down, and the struggles on third down are very real. Defensively, they’re up and down as well, but technically sound enough to take down an offense like the one the Jets rolled out there. Can they do it against a great offense on the road? Sunday did nothing to alleviate the concerns there, because it was Josh McCown and not some dual-threat quarterback they can expect to see in the playoffs.

But on the other hand, how much of this game was a traditional Jets struggle? How much were the penalties the Pats’ sloppiness compared to the flag-happy refs that call more penalties than anyone? How much was bye week rust? We can sweep this one under the rug, but there will be nowhere to hide on the road in Miami and Pittsburgh.

This sure didn’t feel like the reset button win we hoped would come post-bye, but it was still a solid victory. It might not have allayed my fears about what this editions weaknesses are, but it showed that even if they’re not perfect, the Patriots are still a very solid football team that will give any team problems.

More on it all in Posits.

— The Gronk touchdown was the play we all needed and though he only had three catches in the game, seeing the big tight end get back into the end zone was energizing for us all. Despite it, I feel like we’re going to be forever on the treadmill of “is this the same Gronk” over and over until he hangs them up. That’s his narrative now and no one will budge from it. But his impact was clear and he played nearly every snap. He blocked in the run game, he opened things up for Edelman and Hogan, and was just generally a presence that still has to be accounted for. That’s all that matters.

— You look at the snap totals on defense and it tells me everything I need to know. McCourty-McCourty-Chung-Gilmore-Flowers and Van Noy are the only every-down players. Everyone else has a role, and it reminds me a lot of the turnover defense of 2010 when the Pats just didn’t have guys who could play every situation. No one else was even over 60 percent with Hightower, Butler and Harmon the only other three to crack 50 percent. When we talk about who are the building blocks on defense, those six get first consideration. Two (J-Mac/Flowers) are free agents and three of them (McCourtys/Chung) are 31. That leaves Van Noy and Gilmore as the only two long-term foundation pieces in place which is concerning.

— I hate oversimplifying things, but the pass rush is just not good enough. If Flowers doesn’t make a play, the others are too sporadic. That includes Clayborn, Wise, and Butler primarily. Derek Rivers continues to float in and out of the lineup, he was supposed to have a great get-off before tearing his ACL last year. He could blossom with more time to recover, but if he can’t get on the field and the Pats have a third-worst 15 total sacks, it does make you wonder how far behind he really is. For a quick look back I put the threshold for sacks at 40. Yes, it’s a flawed stat but 15 sacks in 11 games is on pace for the lowest amount under Belichick.

— The offense was once again sub-par on third down going 5-12. Despite Michel’s great day, third down was still a struggle for the Pats and that’s a concern. Two of the conversions were the 34-yard touchdown to Gronk on 3rd-and-12 and the 17-yarder to Gordon on 3rd-and-10. Edelman was not targetted which is crazy to me. I’m not sure what the answer but they continue to hover around their third-worst third-down conversion rate in 20 years.

— I do think the Brady criticism can quiet down now, he stood tall in the pocket, took some big hits to deliver some perfect throws. I continue to believe that Brady’s struggles are much more tied into the rest of the offense than they are into his own personal decline.

— Now the Rex Burkhead watch fully begins. If they can squeeze just two healthy months out of him, he’ll give the Pats another option at running back that could truly take them to a new place offensively without having to run Michel and White into the ground. Of course, we haven’t see Burkhead stay healthy for any amount of time so counting on him feels a bit like wishful thinking, but there’s no way around it, the desperately need another option to carry the ball.

I don’t want to say this is the last chance for the Brady Pats because it’s not really about Brady as much as it is the pieces of the second wave of the dynasty just getting old. We went through this in 2008/2009 and it was one of the things that inspired me to blog. To see if Belichick could rebuild the team around Brady to get more rings (he did). Asking him to do it a third time with Brady at 41 is daunting and the loss of picks and miss on high-round picks has really caught up with them.

Belichick will never roll a non-competitive team out there but I can’t help but feel like this time around it’s even more daunting.

But if we just focus on right now the Pats are in a pretty good spot. They’re sitting in the second seed and still control their own fate. The game at Pittsburgh looms large as a proving ground and of all the road stadiums to say that about, I like saying it about a place the Pats have won plenty at in big games. Still, there’s enough concern to think this could be the first time they don’t win a meaningful game against the Steelers. Getting through Minnesota’s defense first is enough to worry about for now.

I’m sure the 2018 Pats will go down swinging no matter when (and if) they go down. If they are able to run the ball they’ll give any defense fits, but their defense will need to find another level if they’re to win the Super Bowl.