Pats Posits: No Rest for the Wicked (Bad Defense)

Took some time to reflect upon the Patriots disappointing 33-30 loss to the Panthers and now it’s time to quickly put it to rest. To bury the proverbial football if you will. There’s already another game in three short days, and in this case it’s a really good thing.

I try to avoid overreacting to anything early in the season, at least until we’ve got a sample size to work with. Now, four games in, we have the sample size and yes, the defense has been historically bad. It’s almost unfathomable how many points they’ve given up. They’re dead last or close to it in every defensive stat out there and they deserve to be. There is no silver lining. No “yeah, but”. They’re all out of sync and admitted to as much after the game.

This isn’t a talent issue. This is a fundamental “play the coverage called” issue, so that’s why there actually is some hope for the defense. I’ve seen and blogged extensively about untalented defenses like those in 2010 and 2011. Those were hodge podge crews that survived because they played zone defense that allowed them to prey on turnovers while giving up epic amounts of yardage. This is a defense that can and should vary coverages like they’ve won two of the last three Super Bowls with.

Could the pass rush be better? Always, but when there are just wide open receivers or a screen pass where no one is within a mile of the ball, those are coverage lapses that cannot happen. The first couple weeks of the season? I’ll give you a slight pass. Four-straight games to start the season? Unacceptable. And historically bad.

128 points allowed through four games is the worst in team history. How is that possible? We’ve seen one- and two-win teams, but this, a team coming off a Super Bowl win, a perennial 12-win team, is THAT bad? Mind boggling.

Okay, let’s talk about the offense, who once again almost had a chance for a last-minute victory. It wasn’t perfect for them, but as far as NFL offenses go and what we’ve come to expect, they’re going to be fine.

Schematically I do worry about the pounding Brady is taking as the team goes more vertical, but I think the short passing game will continue to grow as the season goes along. Some pass protection issues, an inconsistent ground game? All things we’ve seen and overcome before. So while we can discuss and dissect plenty of minutiae, as long as he’s upright, Brady’s going to find ways to put up 30 points like he did today.

Can the defense get on the same page and hold opponents under 30? That right now is the question of 2017.

Here are a bunch more quick-hit posits as we all trudge into work on a victory-less Monday.

— Stephon Gilmore spoke with the media and was pretty forthcoming after the game. Credit to him for that. I’ll review the film before crucifying him too hard, but what’s apparent is that New England’s defense has been tough for Gilmore to pick up. Coming in we knew he could play man, but what we didn’t know was that he would struggle with the varied zone/pattern read coverages the Patriots like to run. If there’s a silver lining here it’s that we don’t have to hear about how the problem is the kinds of coverages the Pats are playing. It’s just that they’re not playing together.

— This is especially harmful to the Patriots defense because so much of what they do requires execution. They’re not a team that beats you with overwhelming talent, they’re a team that beats you because they all play together and there are no holes in what they’re doing. When one or two guys are out of position it looks TERRIBLE. You all saw it for yourself.

— Big number that stands out to me? One tackle-for-loss. As bad as the coverage was, that just shows how little disruption the Pats front is doing. The back end problems can be fixed and if they’re not heads are going to roll, but is this is a Super Bowl championship front seven? I have my doubts.

— The list of players across the roster who have underperformed this far is staggering. Nate Solder and Alan Branch are two key pieces who haven’t played up to the level we’re used to, though Solder seemed to be better in this one while Branch remains a role player behind Lawrence Guy. How many more could we throw in there? Lots. McCourty and Chung are right there too, and they might be the most disappointing because they’re the core of the back end, the back end that was supposed to be the strength of this defense as they transitioned to some new and younger players up front.

— Malcolm Butler gave up some plays but I thought he was at least competitive for most of the day. The interception was probably the easiest of his career. But if there’s one player from this defense who plays with the fire that the rest lack, it’s Butler. Everyone else often looks like they’re sleepwalking out there. And this is a guy who was benched in Week 2! Still, him leading the team in tackles is not a good sign.

–Thank Hoodie for Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola, eh? Cooks and Hogan have been really good, but 87 and 80 are the ones who keep this offense going and it’s scary to feel so dependent on two players with such significant injury histories.

— Well it was nice to get a flawless day from Stephen Gostkowski. For a second there I felt like the stage was set for him to miss the final extra point and not tie the game. But he hit his career-long and also a franchise best. In a day that was pretty ugly, Gost was a bright spot.

— Dion Lewis seemed to take some baby steps forward, and his touchdown run showed some of the old zip he had before his ACL injury. Still, I wish there was a way to utilize him even more. It’s a long season, I still think his time will come and he’ll have that one game with a few “woah” plays.

–Still waiting for Mike Gillislee to bust a long one. 12 carries for 49 yards and a long of 13 is fine. It’s just fine. Need better than fine.

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The season is a campaign, a journey and 2017 is already shaping up to be one of the most interesting campaigns of recent memory. There have been September losses many times before but usually those felt like just a bad game where they’re flat. This year it feels like the same problems keep happening and despite their best efforts the Patriots can’t do what they always do, just play good fundamental football on defense.

Whether it’s a team that just won two of three Super Bowls and isn’t playing with the same kind of urgency or a team that lost the wrong key pieces and didn’t adequately replace them or a combination of those and other things, it’s impossible to decode. All we can see is that this is a bad football defense right now, one that is easily carved up when they’re not facing a traditional passing offense.

Can they get it fixed? In three short days were get another answer to that question.