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Pats Posits: Here Comes Free Agency and the Draft

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I’ve gotta admit, I’ve been just taking it slow these last couple weeks as far as the Patriots blogdom goes. As soon as the Robert Kraft thing turned the page from Super Bowl 53 back to the never-stopping cycle of crazy Patriots news I decided it was time to sit the latest controversy out.

As much as we want there to be a ton of football to talk about this is really the one time there isn’t much more than coaching departures and speculation. I’ve returned to my roots a bit, diving into the draft immediately and fully.

With six picks in the first three rounds, the Patriots are poised to re-energize their roster. After going to four Super Bowls in five seasons and winning three of them, you wouldn’t immediately think the roster needs re-energizing, but things are constantly turning over in the NFL and this has the chance to be a draft that sets the Patriots up for the next decade.

As we wait for real news, the easiest thing to do is to bang out some random Posits on all the little tidbits that have been dripping out.

  1. Dwayne Allen released — Allen restructured last year but it was enough to keep him on the roster for 2019 at the same number. The moved opened up $7 million in cap space taking the Pats up to $24 million in open space. Allen did a lot of the dirty work for a run game that led the way to a Super Bowl title and while I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back at a lowered number given what a good off-field presence he was, I would also consider Ryan Izzo, a second-year tight end who looked promising in camp last season before being placed on IR and getting a redshirt season.
  2. Coaching departures – Character coach Jack Easterby joined the extensive coaching staff departures this season as the changes on and off the field will be a significant factor for 2019. Of course, the key to Belichick is that he has a small staff and all the big decisions still come from him. I still remember being worried that strength coach Mike Woicik leaving would be a big blow back in 2010. Yes, things will be different but I think 2019 will give us a real sense of what the team is going to look like post-Brady.
  3. I’ve found myself really enjoying the defensive line prospects from the combine this past weekend. I’ve started sorting through them for my Top-50 big board, but matching talent with needs can be futile. Still, I think the Pats need a good DT and DE and this class seems pretty solid for the kind of guys that fit what the Pats do, i.e. an early down two-gapper who will maybe play 40 percent of the snaps and the search for an every-down defensive end to (likely) replace Trey Flowers will be ongoing.
  4. I’ve just come to grips that Flowers is in all likelihood gone and very likely to stay in the division with the Dolphins or Jets. If the Pats hadn’t won two Super Bowls with him I’d be more depressed about it, but this is just what they do. Maximize value from a draft pick then collect the compensatory pick value on his way out. Flowers is unique because he’s one of the only true three-down edge players they cultivated from within when he wasn’t all that heralded coming out of the draft. Seymour and Chandler Jones were first-round picks. Ninkovich was a castoff who took multiple team-friendly deals to stick around, just like Vrabel was. Flowers is just the perfect storm and nine times out of ten that means he’s getting a huge payday elsewhere. Still, if you set someone free and they come back to you, their spot in the Patriots Hall of Fame is all but assured.
  5. Doug Kyed reported that the Pats haven’t approached Hightower about a restructure and he wouldn’t be willing to take one even if they did and it spun out of control as you might expect on social media. I was questioning Hightower’s future as recently as the middle of last season but after the way he finished it, looking like an unstoppable beast in the playoffs I can see why the Pats HAVEN’T APPROACHED HIM ABOUT A RESTRUCTURE. Maybe you’re not getting a 16-game, three-down linebacker but the value he brings in key moments absolutely makes him worth it. Once again it’s just about managing him until January.
  6. Long term concerns for the Pats for me really center around the safeties who have brought us three Super Bowls. The poor play at the position from 2009-2012 is really one of the biggest factors why the Pats couldn’t get over the hump despite having Tom Brady in his prime. When you look at the investments they’ve made at the position, including new deals for D-Mac, Chung and Harmon, along with a mega-deal for Gilmore, it’s part of my shifting view on why filling the safety pipeline is a bigger concern that replacing Trey Flowers (potentially). The development of JC Jackson, who was getting his tires pumped a lot at the scouting combine has been a huge development and helps keep the cornerback position well-stocked for the future.
  7. An extension for Tom Brady seems like the easiest way to open up even more cap space as his $27 million hit accounts for over 14 percent of the Pats cap. But would they even want to allocate a huge payday to Flowers or Trent Brown? I’m not ruling it out, because where else could they make a free agent splash on an external player? Why throw major money at someone who might not fit as well as Brown, Flowers or say Malcom Brown already have proven they do?
  8. The bigger question is at wide receiver where the Pats have almost always taken a value-based approach. They’ll go after big fish only when they can get them on their own terms, ala Randy Moss in 2007 or even Josh Gordon last season. Wide receiver is a huge immediate and long-term need but I think it will continue to be a value-based approach and I’m 100 percent in on bringing Danny Amendola back just as way to get some Edelman insurance and round out that 4th/5th spot once again. But giving big money to someone you’re not sure will click with Brady is too big a risk.
  9. Free Agency opens on March 13th and it’s sure to be underwhelming, though at this point you can never be quite sure what the Pats will do. Gilmore was a huge shock I never saw coming because it went against almost every previous FA move, especially at cornerback. In the next few days I’ll put together a target list, but it’s hard to assume anything until the fates of the internal free agency pieces are determined.