With Daylight Savings falling on the exact halfway point of the Patriots season, which also just happens to be their bye week, we’ve suddenly turned the page to real football. Weather becomes a factor. Each game is more important. And the cream of the NFL crop should be rising to the top.
I don’t know what it says about me or the NFL but I didn’t really care to tune in Sunday and see any non-Patriots teams play. It’s amazing what a year without any really dominant teams can do to viewing enthusiasm. There’s been so many major injuries, watering down the product on the field and taking away a lot of the excitement.
All I know is I’m ready for the Patriots to get back to work and as it seems right now, their chances to get to the Super Bowl are as good as ever.
The bye week was a good time to reflect a bit on the 2017 journey so far and reset our focus on the next three months of football, which will end on February 4th in Minnesota.
Here are my Posits on what it will take for the Patriots to get there.
— Here at the halfway point there are only two teams in the AFC that really scare me — the Steelers and Chiefs. How much they scare me is directly contingent on where the game is being played. With yesterday’s loss to the Cowboys, the Chiefs are now a half game behind the Patriots in the standings. If there’s anywhere I wouldn’t want to go for the AFC Championship, it’s Arrowhead.
— The Pats will face the Steelers in a few weeks, that game will have huge playoff implications. Part of me feels like the Steelers must be due to knock off the Pats in the playoffs at some point right? It just boggles my mind how the Pats consistently dominate them in every meaningful game since the 2001 AFC Championship in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have just never seem to have their best team when the play the Pats lately for whatever reason. It also doesn’t help that Mike Tomlin and the Steelers coaches are always two steps behind the Patriots’ strategy.
— Outside of those teams, maybe the Raiders can pull things back together to pull off an upset. We’ll get a look at them in a couple weeks as well, and that game should establish the AFC dynamic even more. Otherwise who’s winning in Foxboro in the Divisional Round? The Titans? Jags? Only having three good teams means the top seed in the AFC is vital. Save the Steelers or Chiefs for the conference championship.
— The Patriots have gotten killed with injuries this year and usually that’s a death sentence for their Super Bowl hopes, but this year I’m just not so sure. They certainly can’t afford any more significant injuries, but if this team makes it to January as it is currently constituted, I’d like their chances, especially if the run game starts to peak even more.
— Of course things could get interesting against a random mobile quarterback team. That’s why I think the games against Buffalo could be interesting tests to see if the Pats have figured out one of their bigger defensive problems. If there’s a critical flaw on defense it could be a lack of athleticism at the second level, but if they get Shea McClellin back he could help in that regard. The game the Patriots lose is one where their defense is on its heels and gets into an early hole, preventing the offense from establishing their run game and leaning too much on deep passes to get things started. I don’t think the 2017 needs the game to unfold perfectly to win against good teams like say the 2010 team, but they have some weaknesses.
— The keys down the stretch will be on the young front seven players to continue to make big plays. Another Super Bowl run will require Trey Flowers, Cassius Marsh, Dietrich Wise and Adam Butler show up consistently with the game on the line. They’re important players and how they’ll perform on the brightest stages is a huge unknown at this point.
— Offensively, all that really matters is getting to the playoffs with Gronk and Amendola ready to go. They’re vital to the offense. Despite how explosive Brandin Cooks has been, and how tough Chris Hogan has been, it’s Gronk and Amendola that determine the ceiling of the offense and keep things moving.
— The X factors are the running backs, and I wonder how good this offense could be if all four had great games at the same time. If that happens in the playoffs they’ll be near unbeatable. Can they make it eight more games without losing one of the RBs? And I include James Develin of course. They’ve never had that kind of backfield for a playoff run and it would be a huge problem for any defense that would prefer to only have to worry about Tom Brady. Because an effective run game really limits how much you can do to confuse Brady.
— If there’s a Super Bowl-winning formula at this point it’s leaning on the run game to move the ball, leaning on Amendola on third down and leaning on Gronk in red zone. Then any big plays to Cooks and/or Hogan are just big fat cherries on top.