Pats Posits: Maybe the Pats are Just Bored

It was nice to get a chance to catch our breath over the bye week and enjoy some non-Pats-stressed football. What seems clear is that the parity of last season has extended into 2018. It’s good for the league that so many games were close with the exception of just a couple blowouts which please the fantasy crowd.

After the Chiefs, Saints and Rams it’s a whole lot of up and down teams that could win or lose on any given Sunday. The Pats are definitely in that lower tier but part of me has to wonder if maybe the Patriots Football Machine is just having a little trouble getting up for non-big games. Especially on the road. At home against good teams, the Patriots have looked like one of the most solid teams in the league.

How you play on the road and against supposed inferior competition does say a lot about the complexion of your team, but I don’t know, maybe this team is just having as hard a time getting psyched up to play all our old friends at the Titans or Lions as I do. And a September Super Bowl in Florida? Whatever. Wake me up for KC, Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben and playoff games.

This is a transition year on offense and injuries have altered things a bit. Defensively, there aren’t any excuses. They’ve played pretty good at home and on the road they’ve looked like a different defense. The struggles on special teams, resulting in field position losses, have been silent killers.

We’ll get a small idea whether or not they can finally just turn it on this weekend. Yeah, the Jets have struggled but so has Buffalo and they hung with these road Pats. New England will get no credit for putting down the Jets, especially if their offense sputters again, but a solid road win to start the post-Thanksgiving push would be nice.

There’s a good team inside these 2018 Patriots, but their dueling personalities have drawn skepticism about their Super Bowl chances. All I know is they’ll keep at it, and go down swinging no matter what. It’s just what they do, even when they don’t win.

— I’ve noticed a couple more articles popping up what I’ve been saying for a few weeks already — that this Pats offense is dependant on the run game. If Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead get and stay healthy these Patriots will hang with anyone. If they limp to the finish, the Pats are in trouble. But let’s face it, neither player inspires confidence as far as injuries go. We’ll all be holding our breath on every carry.

— Similarly, a decade after Belichick had to blow up and start over on defense as Bruschi, Vrabel, McGinest, Harrison, et al came to the end. McCourty, Chung and Hightower were staples of the two latest Super Bowl runs and it’s fair to wonder if they’re best days are behind them. The investment in Gilmore, and perhaps in Trey Flowers,  should help any tradition coming down the pike. Vince Wilfork was the bridge player the last time and hopefully, Flowers can be that for the defense. But I do think we’re approaching a defensive reboot this offseason.

— My excitement to get Ju’Whaun Bentley back in the mix next summer is already building. He could very well be another defensive foundation piece going forward. With the safeties declining, the addition of Obi Melifonwu is also intriguing. That he got a two-year deal is telling and we might not know for sure what his ceiling is until camp.

— You know what I’d love to see? Josh Gordon maybe getting some of the burst we saw in 2013 back. Maybe those days are gone, but Gordon looked like he was in Browns-shape not Patriots-shape. Hopefully, he spent the bye week living at Gillette.

— Swapping Ramon Humber back in for Nicholas Grigsby, while also adding Albert McClellan, showed the Patriots knew they had to make changes after a rough start for the kickoff and punt teams. The popular storyline now is whether or not Brady’s headed down, but the sneaky out could come because of a bad special teams performance.

— Duke Dawson, JC Jackson and Keion Crossen‘s development will be something to keep a close eye on this second half. With Jonathan Jones, Jason McCourty and Eric Rowe all hitting free agency the easiest solution is to promote from within. From what I’ve seen Jackson shows the most potential, but if the Pats keep getting lit up expect Dawson to see some slot snaps too.

— Though not a daunting post-bye schedule, the trip to Pittsburgh stands out. Nowhere will the Pats need their run game more. If Michel and Burkhead are both available it will bode very well for the Pats’ chances of getting a confidence-inspiring road win. They’ve won a lot in Pittsburgh but it always takes a total team effort.

— Finishing the year off with two meatballs at home against the Bills and Jets could lull us into a bit of a false sense of security when it comes to the Pats’ road chances. Odds are good they’d have to go to KC for the AFC Championship, but getting the divisional game at home is such a huge advantage. This is somewhat how the 2005 season shaped up. The Pats got the Jags in the wild card but then had to go to Denver in the divisional round and killed themselves with mistakes, handing Brady and Belichick their first playoff loss.

— Bottom line: The Patriots have won just three times on the road in the playoffs in sixteen playoff runs. They’ve haven’t even had to play a true road playoff game since 2006 (I WAS THERE)! How good or bad this Patriots team really is doesn’t matter. It’s hard to win on the road in the playoffs and that’s why homefield is always so vital. If they have to go on the road in the divisional round it will take a last-second play to make it to another AFC Championship.

If they have to go on the road, it’s because they didn’t prove they could win on the road. That’s a fate they’d deserve.