Pats Posits: Music City Disaster

There’s simply no way to put a silver lining around the Patriots completely flat performance against the Titans. They were bad in all three phases and made just a handful of plays over the course of the entirety of the game. The up-and-down secondary, which had recently strung together some solid performances, fell down hard yesterday, led by Stephon Gilmore, just as everyone was becoming assured he was a superstar shutdown corner.

The kickoff and punt teams, sub-par all year, once again were bad, giving the Titans favorable field position all day and putting the defense even more in the crosshairs of a balanced offensive attack that the Pats had no answer for.

Then there was the offense, which went 3-15 on third down and put up just 40 rushing yards. Yes, those things go very much hand in hand, as the smoke and mirrors offense finally collapsed against a team that knew Tom Brady through and through.

Unfortunately, we’re at the phase of the Patriots dynasty that every bad game will be touted as the end, the cliff, the harbinger of doom for Belichick and Brady. This one will certainly get that treatment over the bye week as I’m sure the radio airwaves are full of long-held bile that has been waiting to explode.

There’s no question, the 2018 Patriots were not on the upward trajectory I assumed they were. They continue to be two different teams at home and on the road, a strange dichotomy for a team that went undefeated on the road for a season-and-a-half from 2016 to 2017. And now, they’re behind the eightball when it comes to homefield and the playoffs, meaning that their road woes must be fixed or their chances of getting to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons will be severely in jeopardy.

Still, they’re a better team than what we saw yesterday. And not every team will play as flawlessly as the Titans did, especially with their inside knowledge of Brady and the Pats. Let’s dive in and vent and try to find some meaning and maybe just maybe, a glint of hope?

— The bye obviously comes at a great time, as the Pats looked like an exhausted team against the Titans. There’s also the promise of getting some key injured players back like Shaq Mason, Rob Gronkowski and Rex Burkhead. Still, no matter who’s been in there this is how the Pats have looked on the road, so there are deeper issues than just getting guys back.

— For the offense, I believe the key to it all is simply running the ball with Michel/Burkhead. At home, they’re averaging 138 rushing yards per game and they’re 5-0. On the road, they’re averaging 79 and they’re 2-3. Michel obviously was rusty (11 carries/31 yards) and it appeared to leave the Pats in the middle of the road, between the gimmick Patterson run game and the one that was effective leaning on Michel.

— The running game getting on track would also help on third down where the Pats’ only three conversions came on two deep balls to Josh Gordon (3rd & 13, 3rd & 10) and one 11-yard pass to Julian Edelman on 3rd & 10. So yeah, those low percentage plays were all they got and anything shorter than third-and-10 they didn’t convert. Just four of the third downs were four yards or shorter, speaking to just how unsuccessful they were on first and second down.

— So is this the Tom Brady cliff? I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was concerned. Some of the balls he threw looked ugly like we’ve never seen, to the point where you’re not sure if he was throwing it away or it slipped out of his hands. The focus on Edelman and Gordon sure didn’t help either, as Chris Hogan has become the forgotten man. I’ll wait until Brown-Mason and Gronk are back in there before I start digging Brady’s grave, but he’ll be under a lot of fire the next two weeks and maybe that’s a good thing.

— Defensively they looked how they always look when they’re off. The secondary fell out of sync and the pass rush just couldn’t get to Mariota to finish him off, despite doing a fairly consistent job collapsing the pocket. Once the defense got on their heels they could no longer dictate. Still, they held the Titans to just 5-12 on third down, illustrating that it was the field position and big plays that most killed them. Throw in 150 timely rushing yards and it’s clear how the Titans dominated them.

— The inconsistency is maddening, dating all the way back to the 2017 opener vs. KC where suddenly the reliable McCourty-Chung-Harmon back end started to have games where they all just stunk. Each week they’re either lights out or lights off. There isn’t really a gray area and that is troubling. Still, in a one-game playoff situation if the lights out version shows up it’s anyone’s game.

I’m not writing the 2018 Patriots obituary today. There’s too much football to still be played and too many good players who could make a season-altering impact. That starts with Gronk, although how healthy he’ll ever be again, especially this year, will remain a constant question, just like it will be with Michel and Burkhead. That trio will make or break the Patriots season, moreso than any decline Brady might show.

What’s clear is that the Patriots need to regroup and get healthy. 2018 will be an uphill battle to the Super Bowl the likes of which they haven’t seen in a few seasons. They were mostly in the driver’s seat for 2016 and 2017, but now they’re more likely to be playing the underdog role if they’re to get to Atlanta. They are still a team capable of getting there, but they’re also a team that could fall well short if they’re forced to rely solely on Brady and the passing attack and no running game.

This Patriots team is always at their best when they’re being written off and there’s good reason to be excited for what they’ll do to the Jets in two weeks. It will just be a long two weeks to get there.