Pats Posits: The Season Starts Now

Happy New Year! The Patriots finished off their regular season by beating the Jets in frigid temperatures and improving to 13-3 on the 2017 season. It wasn’t exactly an exclamation point finish, but it was effective and seemingly injury-free. The bottom line? The Pats now have homefield advantage for the third time in four years and the last two times they’ve had it they’ve won the Super Bowl.

I’m not going to dwell too much on the Jets game. I’m sure there are plenty of takes out there extrapolating all kinds of major implications from how the Pats performed in what were some pretty tough conditions. But I don’t think there’s much to take from it, though it does finish off a full 16-game sample and in that broader regard there’s plenty to talk about.

First, we have to start with Dion Lewis, who once again carried the team as you might hope a running back would do when there are tough conditions for the passing game. It’s just such a huge relief that we made it through the regular season without another catastrophic injury. Specifically — Tom Brady, Lewis, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are just absolutely critical to the Super Bowl chances and it looks like all will be ready to go.

With that group upright the Pats will be a hard out for anyone, no matter how the game unfolds.

Let’s take a moment to catch our breath as the Pats await to see who they’ll play next Saturday night in the AFCDG.

— Let’s just get this out of the way first, the Pats were once again pretty bad on third down offensively though again, we can chalk some of that up to the weather. But still, it’s an issue and if there’s a spot where they can’t afford to struggle in the playoffs it’s on third down. Against the Jets the offense converted just four of 15 third downs. Chris Hogan and James White‘s returns would really help out in this regard. I expect both will be out there in two weeks, giving Brady two more reliable targets on third down when really he’s been getting by on just Amendola and Gronk.

— Gotta love that Gronk wasn’t even targeted yesterday, leaving him at 69 catches for the season. A) It ensured he wasn’t getting any Jets safeties diving at his knees and B) 69 catches for Gronk is too perfect. Here’s how the passing offense finished up, minimum of 10 catches.

— The absence of Julian Edelman seemed to eventually catch up with the Pats on the third downs as the season progressed, but the injuries to Hogan and White were also huge factors. This year illustrated that without “shallow threats” who can get open quickly off the line and be right where Tom Brady wants them, the offense can sputter even with their best running game in years and the explosive Brandin Cooks on the outside. It seems clear to me now that for all the complaining about a lack of deep threats since Randy Moss left, the cupboard of quick-open guys must be re-stocked.

— James Harrison played like he had something to prove which is good news for a defense that badly needed an upgrade on the edge. We’re seeing it week in and week out, every team attacks the edges, especially with a lot of toss sweeps. When they’re going at Eric Lee they were largely successful. Harrison might not be the player he once was but he’s an upgrade in an area of need and should see plenty of action in the playoffs. It was a much-needed boost, all the drama aside.

— Here’s how the rushing stats added up. Lewis was far more dynamic than his yardage indicates and is the true X factor for this team heading into the playoffs. Defenses now must really focus on the Pats ground game, something that has always been an after thought to Tom Brady since Corey Dillon‘s 2004. Crazy that Gillislee was mostly a disappointment yet still got enough goal line carries to put up five touchdowns. Burkhead just couldn’t stay on the field despite flashing almost every game he was healthy. White wasn’t a focal point of the offense like we might’ve expected after last year’s Super Bowl, but he’s clutch on third downs and Brady trusts him implicitly. Again he could have a huge role in the playoffs, assuming he’s healthy.

— Brady put in another stellar year that will likely win him the MVP, even though I don’t really care about that stuff nor does he. There were some tough circumstances this year and losing Edelman was a huge blow early on. But Brady hung tough like he always does. We compare his seasons against the best seasons of all time. This wasn’t an unstoppable year, but it was one where Brady made due with many new targets and a ton of injuries to players he’d leaned on. Here’s how his last five seasons stacked up.

— It was great to see Kyle Van Noy back out there. Between him and Harrison this defense already had an improved look up front. I don’t really hand out points for beating this Jets team in Week 17, but allowing just six points and no 3rd down conversions is a nice way to end the season. Alan Branch would provide another big boost if he can get back out there as well. Again, it’s just another season where you’re praying it’s all hands on deck and the team is totally in sync.

— Marquis Flowers continues to make strides and has really emerged in the last month as a player who could be this year’s random guy who steps up with a big play when it’s needed most. He’s one to go back and take a closer look at this week.

— So we’re probably staring down the barrel of a Chiefs rematch. The Chiefs always scare me. They scared me before the 2014 blow out. They scared me before the 2015 AFCDG. They scared me before the 2017 opener. They just have the style and pieces to attack the Pats where they’re weakest and that’s been on clear display in two of the last three times they’ve played.

Really, the Chiefs are who we should want though. That opening night loss needs to be rectified and if they lose to the Chiefs twice at home in one season it will be clear who the better team was. I won’t get too far ahead of myself on this, because who knows, it may be the Bills for the third time and then we’ll get another first round snoozer, but right now the 2017 Pats deserve and should want the Kansas City Chiefs.

New Patshow coming tomorrow (Tuesday) morning! This week I’ll be in a somewhat non-Belichickian reflective period, breaking down the 2017 team to see what we learned.

It’s nice for the real season to finally be here. This is when I can finally stop stressing about injuries. It’s all focus on next Saturday night and nothing else matters but winning and advancing.